StandardcryptoSP-0880

Bitcoin

Bitcoin spot price.

the verdict —

At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 52% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.26%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2914. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

What to watch when it fires

IBIT MSTR

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26

76,616

vs ~6 weeks ago

↓ 1.1%

vs 60 days ago

↑ 7.4%

vs 7 days ago

↓ 0.4%

last 90 observations · 2026-02-24 → 2026-05-26

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Bitcoin

74,333▼ -42,136 (-36.18%) over 1Y

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view

2025-09-17 → 2026-05-28  ·  252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

52%

+0.03%

1 d

50%

+0.03%

1 wk

↑52%

+0.26%

1 mo

52%

+0.16%

3 mo

49%

+0.11%

6 mo

48%

−0.50%

1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=2,914

+0.03%

52% same direction

+0.03%

50% same direction

+0.26%

52% same direction

+0.16%

52% same direction

+0.11%

49% same direction

-0.50%

48% same direction

DXY

dollar index

n=2,800

-0.00%

49% same direction

+0.03%

52% same direction

+0.05%

51% same direction

-0.29%

47% same direction

-0.51%

44% same direction

+0.06%

52% same direction

Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:

329 fires · 72% positive · avg +1.59%

Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.