FOMC meeting (Powell announcement)
3.1%historical avg in the quarter leading up to past events
+8.9%actual SPY move so far (29 days into the window)
already exceeded the historical move
— Standard signals· what's signaling now —
view:
The standard tier — macro, credit, commodities, equities, technicals. Indicators that fired in the last 120 days with the strongest historical track record. Sorted by deviation-from-chance × recency. The kind of data a Bloomberg terminal would carry. Browse the full universe →
SPY 20-day SMA
737.4↑ 11%vs ~6 weeks ago
20-day simple moving average of SPY close. Short-term trend baseline.
last fired 3 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged +2.1% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 60% of the time.
+0.55%SPY 1 d into the 1 yr window so far
51%
−0.00%
↑52%
−0.00%
↑52%
−0.12%
↑54%
+0.28%
↑57%
+0.73%
↑60%
+2.1%
2-Year Treasury Yield (daily)
4.01↑ 6%vs ~6 weeks ago
Short-end of the curve Fed-policy expectations.
last fired 8 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -6.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 64% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+0.66%SPY 1 d into the 1 yr window so far
48%
−0.03%
↓54%
−0.12%
↓56%
−0.47%
↓59%
−1.5%
↓60%
−3.1%
↓64%
−6.0%
10Y Treasury Yield
4.46↑ 4%vs ~6 weeks ago
10-year US Treasury yield (in %).
last fired 8 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -2.6% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.
Signature window~4 mo(cell shown is 6 mo — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
+0.66%SPY 1 d into the 6 mo window so far
49%
−0.02%
↓52%
−0.09%
↓53%
−0.31%
↓56%
−1.1%
↓58%
−2.6%
↓58%
−4.4%
— Newsletter · Standard Poorly dispatch —
Timely market signals you won't find elsewhere. Plus the occasional “Poorly”-proven correlation we tripped over in the data — pork futures → McRib launches → Bitcoin, that kind of thing. Cadence: when the data warrants it. Usually weekly.
30-Year Treasury Yield (daily)
5.03↑ 3%vs ~6 weeks ago
Long-end of the curve long-term inflation + term premium.
last fired 10 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -2.5% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 60% of the time.
Signature window6 mo
+1.8%SPY 1 wk into the 6 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
50%
−0.02%
↓53%
−0.09%
↓53%
−0.38%
↓57%
−1.2%
↓60%
−2.5%
↓57%
−4.8%
CNN Fear & Greed Index (equities)
60.2Greed↑ 5%vs ~6 weeks ago
CNN's traditional-markets fear & greed composite, daily.
last fired 6 weeks ago
When this fires, SPY averaged +3.1% over the next trading quarter — moving in the same direction as the signal 73% of the time.
+0.91%SPY 1 wk into the 3 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓54%
−0.04%
↓61%
−0.26%
↑65%
+0.83%
↑73%
+3.1%
↑67%
+3.8%
50%
—
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
23.0Extreme Fear↓ 12%vs ~6 weeks ago
alternative.me composite, daily back to 2018-02-01.
last fired 4 weeks ago
When this fires, SPY averaged +1.8% over the next six months — moving in the same direction as the signal 59% of the time.
+2.0%SPY 1 wk into the 6 mo window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
↑52%
+0.04%
↑52%
+0.16%
↑56%
+0.40%
↑58%
+0.85%
↑59%
+1.8%
↑53%
+2.0%
— Poorly · signals nobody else is tracking —
Weather, sports outcomes, App Store ranks, Mercury retrograde, McRib comebacks. Same statistical treatment as Standard — just signals other publications don't bother to track. Some have edge, some don't; we publish either way.
Stormy conditions in the forecast for major US metros tomorrow.
79°F avg high9% precip chance81% metros sunny
Today75°Tomorrow79°Mon80°Tue79°Wed80°Thu83°Fri85°
We track historical SPY response to national weather patterns via US National Precipitation (pop-weighted). Forecast above is editorial framing, not a trade signal. See the indicator for the historical pattern + fire history.
US National Precipitation (pop-weighted)
4.74↑ 97%vs ~6 weeks ago
Pop-weighted mean of daily precipitation across top-30 metros (mm).
last fired 6 weeks ago
When this fires, SPY averaged +7.6% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 75% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+3.5%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
↑54%
+0.03%
↑57%
+0.15%
↑63%
+0.60%
↑67%
+1.8%
↑69%
+3.7%
↑75%
+7.6%
Wikipedia: "Recession"
498.0↓ 11%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews on the Wikipedia Recession article.
last fired 2 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -6.3% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 70% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+12.6%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓55%
−0.03%
↓58%
−0.18%
↓64%
−0.61%
↓66%
−1.4%
↓69%
−3.6%
↓70%
−6.3%
Wikipedia: "Stock market crash"
444.0↑ 20%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews anxiety leading indicator.
last fired 4 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -5.7% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 68% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+6.8%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓52%
−0.04%
↓55%
−0.07%
↓61%
−0.37%
↓61%
−0.73%
↓61%
−1.9%
↓68%
−5.7%
Days since last Liam Neeson movie
1,199↑ 4%vs ~6 weeks ago
Decay model Liam Neeson cadence proxy.
last fired 4 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -6.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+4.1%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
49%
−0.03%
↓55%
−0.18%
↓59%
−0.78%
↓64%
−2.4%
↓64%
−4.0%
↓66%
−6.0%
Days since last Bitcoin halving
770.0↑ 6%vs ~6 weeks ago
Decay-model count since most recent BTC halving for testing
"BTC rallies for N days post-halving" hypotheses.
last fired 2.3 years ago
Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged -2.0% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 61% of the time.
Signature window1 yr(cell shown is 6 mo — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
+3.2%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓53%
−0.03%
↓53%
−0.14%
↓57%
−0.48%
↓60%
−1.2%
↓61%
−2.0%
49%
−0.39%
Days since last Beyoncé album
791.0↑ 6%vs ~6 weeks ago
Decay model · Beyoncé surprise-drop cadence.
last fired 7.1 years ago
Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged -2.4% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 61% of the time.
Signature window1 yr(cell shown is 6 mo — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
+0.15%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
49%
−0.02%
↓53%
−0.11%
↓54%
−0.33%
↓58%
−1.3%
↓61%
−2.4%
↓59%
−2.5%