VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · SEP 17 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
● LIVE FORECASTSP-3114Data-Center Alley Demand (PJM)-11% (30d)·252d−15.2% 82%SP-2268Grid Demand — California region-2% (30d)·126d−2.4% 58%SP-2217Grid Demand — New England region-26% (30d)·63d−2.5% 64%SP-2251Grid Demand — New York region-18% (30d)·63d−2.5% 64%SP-191030-Year Treasury Yield (daily)+2% (30d)·126d−2.5% 60%SP-2242Grid Demand — Northwest region-14% (30d)·63d−2.0% 61%SP-2432Grid Demand — Midwest region+3% (30d)·63d−2.1% 60%SP-217110Y Treasury Yield+4% (30d)·126d−2.6% 58%
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ALL-IN
Featured · Bestie Buys · pundit-portfolio tracker
3 of 4 besties beat SPY· +6.9pp aggregate vs SPYOpen the books →

Every public-market call the All-In Podcast hosts have made for six years. Translated to a portfolio. Audited.

Each host gets their own synthetic book. We use the date+price they actually spoke on, not the pod release date. We exclude jokes and OBSERVE-only mentions. Every record on the books has a 🚩 button so readers can flag misattribution — the audit trail is the brand.

Sum of books vs SPY
+6.9pp
3 of 4 hosts beat SPY individually · sum-of-independent-books · BALANCED methodology
Net P&L
+$429K
on $400K deployed
Public-market calls graded
317
across 6 years of pod episodes
History
2020 →
updated 2026-09-17
Plus we track Brad Gerstner (the "5th bestie") on his own pod BG2 Buys — and roll all of them into a 6-host cross-pod portfolio (+143pp under BALANCED). Toggle methodologies on the BYOB chooser.
Independent · not affiliated with All-In Podcast · editorial / nominative use

Market newslive

Live broad-market headlines from Alpaca / Benzinga. Refreshes every 60 seconds.
No recent headlines for SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD in the last 7 days.
— Today's movers —full list →
Gainers
  • GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.+19.01%
  • SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.+10.57%
  • INTCIntel Corporation+9.74%
Losers
  • UVXYProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF-5.70%
  • TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.-4.62%
  • CPRTCopart, Inc.-3.94%
Industrial Pulse · hedge-fund alt-data · headline free, depth paid

EPA hazardous-waste tonnage tracks production
in 7 sectors of US industry.

We pull every US hazardous-waste manifest and aggregate by parent ticker. The result tracks each ticker's production output — monthly, in near-real-time — with 92% directional agreement, Spearman ρ = +0.635, p < 0.001 across the 13-ticker validated set. Hedge funds pay $10–50K/yr for normalized equivalents. We make the full history readable free; Analyst tier gets each new monthly release 7 days early (when EPA drops manifests, paid sees day-0, free sees day-7) plus the composite index, per-facility breakdown, and >1σ alerts.

Flagship tickers
Open the indicator family →

— Standard signals· what's signaling now —

view:

The standard tier — macro, credit, commodities, equities, technicals. Indicators that fired in the last 120 days with the strongest historical track record. Sorted by deviation-from-chance × recency. The kind of data a Bloomberg terminal would carry. Browse the full universe →

Standardenergy_activitySP-3114

Data-Center Alley Demand (PJM)

2,444,517 11%vs ~6 weeks ago
PJM interconnection electricity demand (MWh/day) — includes Dominion-VA "Data-Center Alley," the densest data-center corridor on earth; a proxy for AI/data-center capex load growth.
last fired 3 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -15.2% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 82% of the time.

+1.7%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
55%
−0.06%
1 d
62%
−0.32%
1 wk
70%
−1.3%
1 mo
76%
−3.8%
3 mo
78%
−7.4%
6 mo
82%
−15.2%
1 yr
Standardenergy_activitySP-2268

Grid Demand — California region

964,799 2%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 California region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 3 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.4% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.

+0.27%SPY 1 wk into the 6 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
53%
+0.03%
1 d
55%
−0.15%
1 wk
58%
−0.53%
1 mo
56%
−1.1%
3 mo
58%
−2.4%
6 mo
58%
−4.7%
1 yr
Standardenergy_activitySP-2217

Grid Demand — New England region

297,379 26%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 New England region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 6 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.5% over the next trading quarter — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 64% of the time.

−0.94%SPY 1 mo into the 3 mo window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
51%
+0.03%
1 d
48%
−0.13%
1 wk
58%
−0.88%
1 mo
64%
−2.5%
3 mo
54%
−1.3%
6 mo
48%
−2.2%
1 yr
— Newsletter · Standard Poorly dispatch —

Timely market signals you won't find elsewhere. Plus the occasional “Poorly”-proven correlation we tripped over in the data — pork futures → McRib launches → Bitcoin, that kind of thing. Cadence: when the data warrants it. Usually weekly.

Standardenergy_activitySP-2251

Grid Demand — New York region

410,697 18%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 New York region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 6 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.5% over the next trading quarter — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 64% of the time.

−0.94%SPY 1 mo into the 3 mo window so far
TRACKING WITH HISTORY
51%
−0.01%
1 d
54%
−0.16%
1 wk
59%
−0.98%
1 mo
64%
−2.5%
3 mo
53%
−1.6%
6 mo
54%
−3.4%
1 yr
Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-1910

30-Year Treasury Yield (daily)

5.24 2%vs ~6 weeks ago
Long-end of the curve long-term inflation + term premium.
last fired 4 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.5% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 60% of the time.

Signature window6 mo
−1.2%SPY 1 wk into the 6 mo window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
50%
−0.02%
1 d
53%
−0.09%
1 wk
53%
−0.38%
1 mo
57%
−1.2%
3 mo
60%
−2.5%
6 mo
57%
−4.8%
1 yr
Standardenergy_activitySP-2242

Grid Demand — Northwest region

1,022,563 15%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 Northwest region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 8 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.0% over the next trading quarter — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 61% of the time.

+3.3%SPY 1 mo into the 3 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
53%
+0.05%
1 d
54%
+0.21%
1 wk
55%
−0.54%
1 mo
61%
−2.0%
3 mo
51%
−0.98%
6 mo
51%
−1.7%
1 yr

— Poorly · signals nobody else is tracking —

Weather, sports outcomes, App Store ranks, Mercury retrograde, McRib comebacks. Same statistical treatment as Standard — just signals other publications don't bother to track. Some have edge, some don't; we publish either way.

☁ Weather outlook · 20 metros · pop-weightedvia NOAA NWS · forecast as of Sep 17, 12 PM

Stormy conditions in the forecast for major US metros tomorrow.

83°F avg high14% precip chance75% metros sunny
Today84°Tomorrow83°Sat81°Sun80°Mon78°Tue77°Wed78°

We track historical SPY response to national weather patterns via US National Precipitation (pop-weighted). Forecast above is editorial framing, not a trade signal. See the indicator for the historical pattern + fire history.

PoorlyweatherSP-6350

US National Precipitation (pop-weighted)

1.41 19%vs ~6 weeks ago
Pop-weighted mean of daily precipitation across top-30 metros (mm).
last fired 5 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged +7.8% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 75% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+5.6%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
54%
+0.03%
1 d
57%
+0.15%
1 wk
63%
+0.61%
1 mo
67%
+1.9%
3 mo
70%
+3.7%
6 mo
75%
+7.8%
1 yr
Poorlylifestyle_searchSP-4085

Wikipedia: "Recession"

528.0 9%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews on the Wikipedia Recession article.
last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -6.5% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 70% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+1.7%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
55%
−0.03%
1 d
58%
−0.18%
1 wk
64%
−0.62%
1 mo
67%
−1.6%
3 mo
70%
−3.7%
6 mo
70%
−6.5%
1 yr
Poorlylifestyle_searchSP-5032

Wikipedia: "Stock market crash"

560.0 20%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews anxiety leading indicator.
last fired 7 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 68% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+6.8%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
52%
−0.04%
1 d
55%
−0.07%
1 wk
61%
−0.38%
1 mo
61%
−0.87%
3 mo
61%
−2.0%
6 mo
68%
−5.9%
1 yr
PoorlyweatherSP-4984

Dallas Precipitation

Total daily precipitation (Dallas, mm).
last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -4.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 67% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+2.1%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
53%
−0.02%
1 d
54%
−0.10%
1 wk
58%
−0.38%
1 mo
61%
−1.1%
3 mo
64%
−2.4%
6 mo
67%
−4.9%
1 yr
PoorlyweatherSP-5032

Denver Precipitation

Total daily precipitation (Denver, mm).
last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+3.9%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
53%
−0.02%
1 d
55%
−0.11%
1 wk
59%
−0.47%
1 mo
61%
−1.2%
3 mo
63%
−2.4%
6 mo
66%
−5.0%
1 yr
PoorlychaosSP-3150

Days since last Liam Neeson movie

1,302 3%vs ~6 weeks ago
Decay model Liam Neeson cadence proxy.
last fired 5 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -6.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
−0.05%SPY 1 wk into the 1 yr window so far
TRACKING WITH HISTORY
49%
−0.03%
1 d
55%
−0.18%
1 wk
59%
−0.78%
1 mo
64%
−2.4%
3 mo
64%
−4.0%
6 mo
66%
−6.0%
1 yr