— PunditPoorly · All-In Podcast —
Bestie Buys
Every public-market call the besties have made on the pod, translated mechanically into a synthetic portfolio. Every quote, every receipt, audited by the audience.
ALL-INPodcast441 episodes scored · rubric v2.3 / engine v5.4 · last update 9/15/2026 · methodology
All-In Group return
+178.8%
on $400K deployed
Net PnL
+$715K
vs starting bankroll
Predictions graded
392
4 main hosts + guests
Open positions
9
4 shorts · 17 expiries
The Takeaway
Under the published default (BALANCED methodology), the 4-bestie aggregate returned +178.8% on $400K deployed across the 189 calls that clear its conviction bar (of 392 graded). Per host: Palihapitiya leads at +159.2% (92 calls); Sacks +98.1%, Friedberg +88.5%; Calacanis trails at +83.5% (36 calls). Each host's optimal methodology differs — toggle presets on BYOB to compare concentrated, let-it-ride, and other rubrics against the BALANCED default.
Aggregate Portfolio vs SPY — 1508 trading days · shared $400K bucket · BALANCED book
Daily walk-forward mark-to-market · SPY buy-and-hold benchmark on the same $400K
Host portfolio$1.1MSPY mirror$977K+$138K (+14.2%)
Aggregate Composition — 9 open positions across all 4 hosts · BALANCED book
Top Holdings · 10 slices
GOOGL$204,56918.3%
NVDA$97,9888.8%
CRM$91,7728.2%
SPY$57,1245.1%
SMH$43,4973.9%
AMZN$32,7942.9%
XLK$31,1792.8%
AAPL$31,0702.8%
MSFT$28,0132.5%
SPY (cash bucket)$497,29344.6%
The Books — BALANCED methodology · click any host to drill in
Trade Stats — every host pooled · 137 cycles
A “trade” = one INITIATE → close round-trip on a single ticker. Flips count separately (Chamath's META bear → bull = two trades). This ledger is representative of the core besties plus guest initiates (Ackman, Loeb, Arora, and other one-off appearances); the per-host table below lets you see who's actually beating the field.
Total trades
137
Win rate
60%
Avg P&L / trade
+$890
+24.7%
Median P&L %
+7.2%
typical trade
Avg holding
669d
median 524d
Avg winner
+$2,269
Avg loser
-$1,166
showing 17 of 17 hosts
| Gavin Baker | 4 | 100% | +$9,707 | +238.5% | 1.3y | +$29,507 | -$1,330 |
| Antonio Gracias | 1 | 100% | +$2,476 | +108.9% | 1.3y | +$2,476 | -$2,476 |
| Reid Hoffman | 1 | 100% | +$3,002 | +84.0% | 1.7y | +$3,002 | -$3,002 |
| Thomas Laffont | 3 | 100% | +$765 | +53.9% | 1.2y | +$1,148 | -$81 |
| Travis Kalanick | 2 | 100% | +$693 | +48.6% | 1.3y | +$1,213 | -$174 |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | 1 | 100% | +$3,385 | +45.3% | 2.0y | +$3,385 | -$3,385 |
| David Friedberg | 16 | 69% | +$1,332 | +37.7% | 2.0y | +$6,982 | -$3,250 |
| Jason Calacanis | 14 | 64% | +$1,237 | +31.7% | 2.5y | +$5,378 | -$1,750 |
| Ray Dalio | 2 | 50% | +$1,244 | +31.1% | 1.3y | +$2,535 | -$46 |
| Keith Rabois | 1 | 100% | +$470 | +23.7% | 1.4y | +$470 | -$470 |
| David Sacks | 24 | 58% | +$752 | +20.6% | 2.1y | +$9,618 | -$3,789 |
| Elon Musk | 1 | 100% | +$597 | +20.1% | 253d | +$597 | -$597 |
| Brad Gerstner | 10 | 50% | +$337 | +10.7% | 1.9y | +$7,178 | -$3,960 |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 52 | 52% | +$182 | +4.9% | 1.7y | +$11,164 | -$4,125 |
| Mark Benioff | 1 | 100% | +$57 | +1.6% | 6d | +$57 | -$57 |
| Cathie Wood | 3 | 0% | -$719 | -19.1% | 219d | +$-149 | -$1,519 |
| Joe Lonsdale | 1 | 0% | -$400 | -19.6% | 1.4y | +$-400 | -$400 |
The Buys — aggregate top open positions
| Ticker | Hosts | Position | PnL | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 3 hosts | $204,569 | +$6,140 | +3% |
| NVDA | 2 hosts | $97,988 | $3,637 | -4% |
| CRM | 2 hosts | $91,772 | +$7,125 | +8% |
| SPY | 2 hosts | $57,124 | +$2,005 | +4% |
| SMH | 1 host | $43,497 | $878 | -2% |
| AMZN | 1 host | $32,794 | +$6,106 | +23% |
| XLK | 1 host | $31,179 | +$4,147 | +15% |
| AAPL | 1 host | $31,070 | +$3,214 | +12% |
The Briefs — latest fires · core besties only
INITIATE · bull2026-09-04 · NVDA · an All-In host · MID
“And I believe right now, starting today, Nvidia is the number one competitor for open[AI] and [Anthropic] not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute. And I think now Jensen is the leading open source provider in America. And I think he's going to take the world. He's going t…”
INITIATE · bull2026-08-29 · CRM · an All-In host · LOW
“I don't know it was pretty obvious to me in May that Salesforce specifically was meaningfully oversold. I think what I was trying to say there and maybe I can say more precisely now is we're getting to the end of this second phase of AI... But we're starting this next phase soon,…”
INITIATE · bull2026-08-29 · CRM · an All-In host · LOW
“Well, this narrative of the SaaS apocalypse was totally overdone. I mean, this whole SaaS is dead narrative is just getting shredded today with Salesforce being up over 20%... I do not believe that core systems of record like CRM are going to get rip and replace with something vi…”
INITIATE · bull2026-08-29 · NVDA · an All-In host · LOW
“Let me just underscore what you said in the intro. Which is really, I think the reason why the stock is up 8% today is not just the great quarter. But the fact that they guided to 70% growth next year, whereas the street was only expecting around 45%. So that's pretty amazing. An…”
INITIATE · bear2026-08-29 · TLT · an All-In host · LOW
“The tactical answer to your question that you asked before is why is he in the market buying bonds? It is called yield curve suppression. Meaning when you buy bonds you bid up the prices and the implied yields go down, which allows Scott to then finance at a lower borrowing cost.…”
Help us get attribution right.
Per-host books are our best read of who said what. Every row has a 🚩 button. Audit Hall →
Nobody asked. We ledger anyway. · Bestie Buys is a product of PunditPoorly · part of Standard Poorly
— More depth available —
Across the whole cohort, here's what Analyst + Trader unlock —
Analyst$19/mo founder
- Every trade, every ticker — entry date, entry price, sizing, exit, realized P&L. The audit trail behind the headline number.
- Win rate, average P&L, biggest winner, ugliest loser, capital deployed per ticker. Stop wondering whether the +60% headline is one moonshot or a real pattern.
- Transcript receipts on every row — the exact quote, episode title, timestamp. Verify we didn't take the call out of context.
- Off-the-books table — commentary-only mentions that didn't meet our INITIATE rubric. The "honorable mentions" we deliberately don't count.
- Hot/cold streak analysis — was the edge real, or did wins just cluster? Drawdown stress test — what's the worst stretch you'd have had to hold through?
- BYOB — swap conservative / balanced / let-it-ride methodologies and watch the same host's numbers change under each lens.
Trader$79/mo founder
- Everything in Analyst, plus:
- Market-state overlay — does this host outperform when markets are calm, when they panic, or both? Per-host breakdown across calm / normal / high-fear tape (so you can see whether the edge holds when it counts, or just in easy markets).
- Alerts when a host opens, trims, or closes a position — email, SMS, WhatsApp, webhook. Stop refreshing the page.
- Compound alert rules — "Chamath initiates a new position AND markets are high-fear AND it's an AI name" → fire. Build the exact setups you want to act on.
- CSV / API export of every ledger — bring it into your own spreadsheet or model.
- MCP server for Claude Desktop / Cursor / Claude Code (coming soon) — pull this data straight into your AI workflow and ask it questions.
- Real-time intraday quotes on open positions — see the host's current book move tick-by-tick during market hours.
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