— PunditPoorly · All-In Podcast —
Bestie Buys
Every public-market call the besties have made on the pod, translated mechanically into a synthetic portfolio. Every quote, every receipt, audited by the audience.
ALL-INPodcast466 episodes scored · rubric v2.3 / engine v5.4 · last update 11/4/2026 · methodology
All-In Group return
+164.6%
on $400K deployed
Net PnL
+$658K
vs starting bankroll
Predictions graded
412
4 main hosts + guests
Open positions
9
4 shorts · 17 expiries
The Takeaway
Under the published default (BALANCED methodology), the 4-bestie aggregate returned +164.6% on $400K deployed across the 193 calls that clear its conviction bar (of 412 graded). Per host: Palihapitiya leads at +153.7% (93 calls); Sacks +93.9%, Friedberg +83.4%; Calacanis trails at +79.6% (38 calls). Each host's optimal methodology differs — toggle presets on BYOB to compare concentrated, let-it-ride, and other rubrics against the BALANCED default.
Aggregate Portfolio vs SPY — 1544 trading days · shared $400K bucket · BALANCED book
Daily walk-forward mark-to-market · SPY buy-and-hold benchmark on the same $400K
Host portfolio$1.1MSPY mirror$964K+$95K (+9.8%)
Aggregate Composition — 9 open positions across all 4 hosts · BALANCED book
Top Holdings · 10 slices
GOOGL$147,26113.9%
CRM$58,7995.6%
SPY$56,2135.3%
SMH$48,2904.6%
AAPL$31,6363.0%
AMZN$31,3703.0%
XLK$28,9452.7%
MSFT$28,6622.7%
XLE$27,6552.6%
SPY (cash bucket)$599,55356.6%
The Books — BALANCED methodology · click any host to drill in
Trade Stats — every host pooled · 137 cycles
A “trade” = one INITIATE → close round-trip on a single ticker. Flips count separately (Chamath's META bear → bull = two trades). This ledger is representative of the core besties plus guest initiates (Ackman, Loeb, Arora, and other one-off appearances); the per-host table below lets you see who's actually beating the field.
Total trades
137
Win rate
60%
Avg P&L / trade
+$890
+24.7%
Median P&L %
+7.2%
typical trade
Avg holding
669d
median 524d
Avg winner
+$2,269
Avg loser
-$1,166
showing 17 of 17 hosts
| Gavin Baker | 4 | 100% | +$9,707 | +238.5% | 1.3y | +$29,507 | -$1,330 |
| Antonio Gracias | 1 | 100% | +$2,476 | +108.9% | 1.3y | +$2,476 | -$2,476 |
| Reid Hoffman | 1 | 100% | +$3,002 | +84.0% | 1.7y | +$3,002 | -$3,002 |
| Thomas Laffont | 3 | 100% | +$765 | +53.9% | 1.2y | +$1,148 | -$81 |
| Travis Kalanick | 2 | 100% | +$693 | +48.6% | 1.3y | +$1,213 | -$174 |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | 1 | 100% | +$3,385 | +45.3% | 2.0y | +$3,385 | -$3,385 |
| David Friedberg | 16 | 69% | +$1,332 | +37.7% | 2.0y | +$6,982 | -$3,250 |
| Jason Calacanis | 14 | 64% | +$1,237 | +31.7% | 2.5y | +$5,378 | -$1,750 |
| Ray Dalio | 2 | 50% | +$1,244 | +31.1% | 1.3y | +$2,535 | -$46 |
| Keith Rabois | 1 | 100% | +$470 | +23.7% | 1.4y | +$470 | -$470 |
| David Sacks | 24 | 58% | +$752 | +20.6% | 2.1y | +$9,618 | -$3,789 |
| Elon Musk | 1 | 100% | +$597 | +20.1% | 253d | +$597 | -$597 |
| Brad Gerstner | 10 | 50% | +$337 | +10.7% | 1.9y | +$7,178 | -$3,960 |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 52 | 52% | +$182 | +4.9% | 1.7y | +$11,164 | -$4,125 |
| Mark Benioff | 1 | 100% | +$57 | +1.6% | 6d | +$57 | -$57 |
| Cathie Wood | 3 | 0% | -$719 | -19.1% | 219d | +$-149 | -$1,519 |
| Joe Lonsdale | 1 | 0% | -$400 | -19.6% | 1.4y | +$-400 | -$400 |
The Buys — aggregate top open positions
| Ticker | Hosts | Position | PnL | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 2 hosts | $147,261 | $18,126 | -11% |
| CRM | 1 host | $58,799 | +$2,263 | +4% |
| SPY | 2 hosts | $56,213 | +$1,094 | +2% |
| SMH | 1 host | $48,290 | +$3,915 | +9% |
| AAPL | 1 host | $31,636 | +$3,780 | +14% |
| AMZN | 1 host | $31,370 | +$4,682 | +18% |
| XLK | 1 host | $28,945 | +$1,912 | +7% |
| MSFT | 1 host | $28,662 | +$208 | +1% |
The Briefs — latest fires · core besties only
INITIATE · bull2026-10-30 · GOOGL · an All-In host · V·LOW
“So it's true that Google searches relative share decrease, but it's absolute revenue still increased. So if you look at Google search revenue year over year, it was still up 12%. ... So Google search is still thriving. ... But I tend to think it's a good thing that Alphabet is no…”
INITIATE · bull2026-10-30 · GOOGL · an All-In host · MID
“The revenue per search and that issue is obviously how the one people are concerned with. But the other side of the coin is absolutely correct, David. The other businesses, they're now only 50% dependent on this business. And that will continue. So for me, I just literally bought…”
INITIATE · bull2026-10-17 · XLE · an All-In host · LOW
“Sorry, Jason, just the last thing. But I'm telling you guys, you got to get long energy. I think startups need to find a way of cobbling together. If you don't have access to electricity, you cannot go through the hyperscalers. Is my prognostication. ... We are by 2050 about 1.4 …”
HOLD · bull2026-09-30 · HOOD · an All-In host · LOW
“Right. What if it works? And that is the hard question is to just pause for a second and say, if this does work, what does the world look like? And now we're in over 10 years in Robinhood and I've never sold a share. In fact, I bought a lot of shares when it was $9 a share on the…”
INITIATE · bull2026-09-04 · NVDA · an All-In host · MID
“And I believe right now, starting today, Nvidia is the number one competitor for open[AI] and [Anthropic] not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute. And I think now Jensen is the leading open source provider in America. And I think he's going to take the world. He's going t…”
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Nobody asked. We ledger anyway. · Bestie Buys is a product of PunditPoorly · part of Standard Poorly
— More depth available —
Across the whole cohort, here's what Analyst + Trader unlock —
Analyst$19/mo founder
- Every trade, every ticker — entry date, entry price, sizing, exit, realized P&L. The audit trail behind the headline number.
- Win rate, average P&L, biggest winner, ugliest loser, capital deployed per ticker. Stop wondering whether the +60% headline is one moonshot or a real pattern.
- Transcript receipts on every row — the exact quote, episode title, timestamp. Verify we didn't take the call out of context.
- Off-the-books table — commentary-only mentions that didn't meet our INITIATE rubric. The "honorable mentions" we deliberately don't count.
- Hot/cold streak analysis — was the edge real, or did wins just cluster? Drawdown stress test — what's the worst stretch you'd have had to hold through?
- BYOB — swap conservative / balanced / let-it-ride methodologies and watch the same host's numbers change under each lens.
Trader$79/mo founder
- Everything in Analyst, plus:
- Market-state overlay — does this host outperform when markets are calm, when they panic, or both? Per-host breakdown across calm / normal / high-fear tape (so you can see whether the edge holds when it counts, or just in easy markets).
- Alerts when a host opens, trims, or closes a position — email, SMS, WhatsApp, webhook. Stop refreshing the page.
- Compound alert rules — "Chamath initiates a new position AND markets are high-fear AND it's an AI name" → fire. Build the exact setups you want to act on.
- CSV / API export of every ledger — bring it into your own spreadsheet or model.
- MCP server for Claude Desktop / Cursor / Claude Code (coming soon) — pull this data straight into your AI workflow and ask it questions.
- Real-time intraday quotes on open positions — see the host's current book move tick-by-tick during market hours.
See full pricing →Join waitlistLaunch founder pricing capped at the first 100 Analyst + 25 Trader subscribers. Rates locked for 24 months from signup.