— Analyst · cross-signal research —

Signal pairs that fire together

When two indicators trigger close together, the combined signal sometimes outperforms the stronger single signal alone — but not always. Each row is a pair we've classified as RELIABLE under post-2020 SPY price action (consistent sign in test + validation windows). Pairs that flipped sign between windows are filtered out here and lifted onto /pair-plays with explicit flags. (We call this a 'cofire' in our methodology.)

Analyst · previewFree preview shows the top RELIABLE pairs (consistent sign across test + validation). Analyst subscribers get the full reliable-pair table plus the sign-flip diagnostic (which pairs reversed direction between windows and shouldn't be acted on) at /pair-plays, plus live alerts when pairs trigger today.Join waitlist →

Validated pairs

2,360

across {1,3,5,7,10}d cofire windows

Unique pairs

853

best cofire window per pair

In public catalog

839

both halves are public-tier

Avg lift over solo

+8.2pp

joint - solo_max_dev

How to read this. A row says: when indicator A and indicator B both fire within N days of each other, SPY moves in the direction shown (↑ bullish / ↓ bearish) hit% of the time over the pair's natural horizon — a meaningful lift over what either indicator alone would tell you. Lift = (joint hit deviation from 50%) − (best solo hit deviation). Out-of-sample only: the hit rate shown is validation-set performance on post-2020 data (the model was fit on 2010-2019). Sample sizes are small by design — coincidences are rare, which is why they matter when they happen.

— News on tickers behind the top pairs —live

Live from Alpaca / Benzinga. Bundled across the 1 ticker appearing in the highest-lift signal pairs above.

No recent headlines for GOLD in the last 7 days.

Indicator A	Indicator B	Cofire window	Horizon	Hit rate	Lift vs solo	N (OOS)
Lean Hogs (pork futures) commodities	Lowe's (LOW) stock price macro	7d	180d	100% ↑ bullish	+29.8pp	31
Host Hotels (HST) stock price lifestyle	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	5d	252d	97% ↓ bearish	+28.1pp	31
SPY MACD histogram technical	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	7d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+28.1pp	25
USD/JPY currencies_rates	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+27.2pp	17
Copper MACD histogram technical	USD/JPY currencies_rates	7d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+26.7pp	9
Copper MACD histogram technical	Lowe's (LOW) stock price macro	3d	252d	92% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+26.7pp	12
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) commodities	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+26.3pp	9
Host Hotels (HST) stock price lifestyle	SPY MACD histogram technical	10d	126d	100% ↓ bearish	+25.1pp	44
10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate macro	Gold Spot commodities	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+25.0pp	15
Lean Hogs (pork futures) commodities	Phoenix Temperature weather	10d	180d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+23.8pp	11
Silver Spot commodities	WTI Crude Oil commodities	10d	126d	100% ↓ bearish	+23.3pp	19
Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	WTI Crude Oil commodities	1d	252d	92% ↓ bearish	+23.3pp	24
NVIDIA equities	Silver Spot commodities	7d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+22.1pp	18
Lean Hogs (pork futures) commodities	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+22.1pp	18
10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate macro	SPY MACD histogram technical	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+21.8pp	42
Lean Hogs (pork futures) commodities	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	10d	252d	73% ↑ bullish	+19.8pp	26
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	Days to year end calendar	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+19.6pp	12
SPY MACD histogram technical	WTI Crude Oil commodities	10d	126d	100% ↓ bearish	+18.9pp	46
Days to year end calendar	Mastercard (MA) stock price macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+18.9pp	11
Gold Spot commodities	WTI Crude Oil commodities	10d	126d	100% ↓ bearish	+18.7pp	21
10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate macro	Host Hotels (HST) stock price lifestyle	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+18.2pp	39
BTC volume z-score (20d) technical	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+18.2pp	15
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	BTC volume z-score (20d) technical	10d	252d	94% ↑ bullish	+18.2pp	18
10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate macro	Lowe's (LOW) stock price macro	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+18.1pp	33
DC Temperature weather	Phoenix Temperature weather	3d	180d	97% ↓ bearish	+18.0pp	30
Minneapolis Precipitation weather	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+18.0pp	11
Minneapolis Precipitation weather	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+18.0pp	29
Gold MACD histogram technical	Silver Spot commodities	10d	180d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.8pp	9
Philadelphia Snowfall weather	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+17.7pp	23
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) commodities	Philadelphia Snowfall weather	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+17.7pp	15
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	Philadelphia Snowfall weather	10d	252d	83% ↑ bullish	+17.7pp	40
Host Hotels (HST) stock price lifestyle	USD/JPY currencies_rates	7d	126d	83% ↓ bearish	+17.5pp	36
Triple witching expiration day calendar	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.5pp	13
Las Vegas Temperature weather	Pittsburgh Temperature weather	3d	252d	85% ↓ bearish	+17.3pp	27
Lean Hogs (pork futures) commodities	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	1d	180d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.3pp	8
Las Vegas Precipitation weather	Mastercard (MA) stock price macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+17.2pp	19
Las Vegas Precipitation weather	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+17.2pp	33
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	Las Vegas Precipitation weather	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+17.2pp	16
Lean Hogs (pork futures) commodities	Las Vegas Precipitation weather	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.2pp	9
Las Vegas Precipitation weather	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+17.2pp	26
Las Vegas Sunshine weather	3-Month Treasury Yield (daily) currencies_rates	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.0pp	13
Las Vegas Sunshine weather	Silver Spot commodities	7d	252d	90% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.0pp	10
Las Vegas Sunshine weather	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.0pp	10
Host Hotels (HST) stock price lifestyle	Las Vegas Sunshine weather	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+17.0pp	10
Brent Crude commodities	Gold MACD histogram technical	10d	180d	100% ↓ bearish	+16.8pp	18
Brent Crude commodities	Silver Spot commodities	5d	126d	100% ↓ bearish	+16.8pp	15
Brent Crude commodities	Gold Spot commodities	10d	126d	100% ↓ bearish	+16.8pp	22
Brent Crude commodities	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	1d	252d	92% ↓ bearish	+16.8pp	25
Phoenix Temperature weather	Pittsburgh Temperature weather	1d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+16.7pp	14
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+16.6pp	25
Detroit Snowfall weather	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+16.1pp	32
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	Detroit Snowfall weather	3d	252d	89% ↑ bullish	+16.1pp	18
Detroit Snowfall weather	10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread macro	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+16.1pp	26
Minneapolis Precipitation weather	Silver Spot commodities	7d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+15.9pp	18
Pittsburgh Snowfall weather	SPY 200-day SMA technical	10d	252d	100% ↑ bullish	+15.8pp	16
American Express (AXP) stock price macro	Pittsburgh Snowfall weather	1d	252d	100% ↑ bullish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+15.8pp	11
Phoenix Sunshine weather	3-Month Treasury Yield (daily) currencies_rates	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish	+15.6pp	19
Phoenix Sunshine weather	Weather grade: Minneapolis weather	7d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+15.6pp	11
Copper MACD histogram technical	Phoenix Sunshine weather	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+15.6pp	9
Phoenix Sunshine weather	Vulcan Materials (VMC) stock price commodities	10d	252d	100% ↓ bearish Small sample — treat as anecdote	+15.6pp	13

Showing top 60 of 839 RELIABLE public-tier pairs by lift. The underlying AutoResearch v9 run OOS-validated 2,360 pairs; ~325 of those flipped sign between test and validation windows and are excluded here. Full reliable-pair table, the sign-flip diagnostic at /pair-plays, and live cofire alerts when pairs trigger today land with the Analyst tier.

Methodology. AutoResearch v9 (run-016). For every pair of the top 150 indicators (by solo deviation), we test five cofire windows ({1, 3, 5, 7, 10} days), require ≥25 solo fires per indicator and ≥8 joint fires, and score against the longer of the two indicators' per-indicator natural horizon (instead of the v8 fixed grid). Test window 2010-2019, validation window 2020-today. We only surface pairs where the OOS lift over the better solo signal clears +3pp. See methodology for the full pipeline; raw results live at data/auto_research/run_016_natural_horizon_pairs/.