Lean Hogs (pork futures)
CME lean-hog futures the closest publicly-traded proxy for live pork prices. Folklore: McRib launches cluster around lean-hog drawdowns ("McD only puts the McRib back when wholesale pork is cheap"). Tested directly via cross-asset correlation between this series and the mcrib_first_day calendar indicator.
— Current state —
— The series — full history —
Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.
— What it has historically predicted —
Historically barely better than chance over the next six months. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.
— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —
Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).
— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —
Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.