VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardequitiesSP-1293

NVIDIA

The market's GPU heartbeat.

the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 52% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.08%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6558. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
NVDA

Current state

Latest value · 2026-05-22
215.3
vs ~6 weeks ago
14%
vs 60 days ago
17%
vs 7 days ago
4.6%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 2026-05-22

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

NVIDIA
212.6 +77.10 (+56.90%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
239.8212.5185.3158.0130.8May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-27 → 2026-05-27 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.02%
1 d
50%
−0.06%
1 wk
52%
−0.04%
1 mo
52%
+0.08%
3 mo
51%
+0.14%
6 mo
50%
+0.21%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,558
-0.02%
49% same direction
-0.06%
50% same direction
-0.04%
52% same direction
+0.08%
52% same direction
+0.14%
51% same direction
+0.21%
50% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=2,851
+0.03%
51% same direction
+0.07%
50% same direction
+0.33%
51% same direction
+1.9%
52% same direction
+2.9%
55% same direction
+7.9%
52% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
520 fires · 64% positive · avg +0.91%
−30.5%−15.3%0%+15.3%+30.5%2000-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −0.40%2000-06-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −2.57%2000-06-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −1.33%2000-06-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: −2.02%2000-06-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −2.02%2000-06-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −1.36%2000-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +8.80%2001-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2001-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −0.08%2001-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +0.52%2001-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +1.45%2001-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +1.52%2001-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: +2.07%2001-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +4.11%2001-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: +3.82%2001-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: +0.82%2001-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +0.27%2001-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −0.65%2001-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −0.59%2001-12-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −0.14%2001-12-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: −0.73%2001-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: −1.28%2001-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −1.78%2002-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2002-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −3.99%2003-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.16) · SPY 63d: +4.85%2003-05-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.70) · SPY 63d: +3.97%2003-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +5.11%2003-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 63d: +4.79%2003-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 63d: +4.42%2003-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 63d: +5.01%2003-05-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +8.45%2003-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +9.09%2003-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +8.42%2003-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +7.70%2003-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +6.41%2003-05-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 63d: +4.75%2003-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +4.64%2003-05-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +4.95%2003-05-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.07) · SPY 63d: +3.93%2003-06-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: +4.20%2003-06-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +5.17%2003-06-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.50) · SPY 63d: +4.24%2003-06-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.57) · SPY 63d: +3.77%2003-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +3.60%2003-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: +5.53%2003-06-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +3.78%2003-06-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +1.65%2003-06-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +1.64%2003-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +1.78%2004-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −0.91%2004-07-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −0.67%2004-07-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: +0.06%2004-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −0.92%2004-07-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −0.04%2004-07-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: −1.06%2004-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −0.58%2004-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −2.09%2004-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −1.14%2004-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −0.08%2004-07-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −1.31%2004-07-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −2.09%2004-08-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −2.99%2004-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −6.07%2004-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.26) · SPY 63d: −9.08%2004-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.90) · SPY 63d: −9.61%2004-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 63d: −8.05%2004-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −8.06%2004-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: −9.34%2004-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −9.95%2004-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: −9.69%2004-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −9.02%2004-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −7.13%2004-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −8.09%2005-09-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +2.26%2005-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +3.78%2005-09-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +3.19%2005-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +3.34%2006-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +0.75%2006-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: −0.33%2006-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: −0.07%2006-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +2.20%2006-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +4.11%2006-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +3.55%2006-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +3.02%2006-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +2.88%2006-01-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +2.28%2006-01-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +1.53%2006-03-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: −4.06%2006-03-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: −1.95%2006-03-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: −1.96%2006-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: −1.49%2006-04-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −2.67%2006-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: −2.73%2006-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: −3.26%2006-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −2.08%2006-04-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: −1.80%2006-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −3.79%2007-06-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.50) · SPY 63d: +0.20%2007-06-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +0.94%2007-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +1.24%2007-06-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +1.19%2007-06-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +1.80%2007-07-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +1.65%2007-07-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +1.15%2007-07-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +1.05%2007-07-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +0.68%2007-07-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +1.80%2007-07-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +2.72%2007-07-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +2.95%2007-07-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +1.19%2007-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: +0.40%2007-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: +0.97%2007-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +0.17%2007-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: −0.45%2007-07-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −0.53%2007-09-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: −0.94%2007-09-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −0.97%2007-09-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +0.46%2008-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −6.73%2008-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −1.96%2009-09-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +7.67%2009-09-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.67%2009-09-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +4.99%2009-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +5.60%2009-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +5.54%2009-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +5.82%2009-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +4.95%2009-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +4.40%2009-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +4.14%2009-12-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +4.30%2009-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +3.94%2009-12-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +4.69%2009-12-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +6.57%2010-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +5.04%2010-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +4.16%2010-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +4.45%2011-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.59) · SPY 63d: +4.66%2011-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.77) · SPY 63d: +4.50%2011-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.03) · SPY 63d: +4.32%2011-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.74) · SPY 63d: +3.17%2011-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.98) · SPY 63d: +2.24%2011-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.71) · SPY 63d: +2.48%2011-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.54) · SPY 63d: +2.12%2011-01-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.10) · SPY 63d: +0.80%2011-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.69) · SPY 63d: +2.39%2011-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.55) · SPY 63d: +3.92%2011-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 63d: +4.21%2011-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.08) · SPY 63d: +3.52%2011-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.64) · SPY 63d: +4.35%2011-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.68) · SPY 63d: +4.63%2011-01-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.51) · SPY 63d: +4.71%2011-01-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 63d: +6.82%2011-01-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +5.86%2011-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 63d: +3.82%2011-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 63d: +3.33%2011-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +2.16%2011-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: +2.33%2011-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +2.08%2011-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +2.49%2011-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +0.32%2011-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −0.68%2013-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +3.61%2013-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +2.65%2013-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +1.58%2013-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +0.63%2013-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: −0.66%2013-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: −1.29%2013-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: −0.95%2013-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +0.37%2013-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +0.79%2013-05-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: −1.16%2014-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +3.84%2014-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +2.40%2014-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.18) · SPY 63d: +2.19%2014-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.96) · SPY 63d: +2.44%2014-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.12) · SPY 63d: +2.48%2014-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.80) · SPY 63d: +2.73%2014-02-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.32) · SPY 63d: +3.10%2014-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.44) · SPY 63d: +2.94%2014-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.00) · SPY 63d: +3.61%2014-02-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.78) · SPY 63d: +3.53%2014-02-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 63d: +3.52%2014-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2014-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +4.28%2014-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +2.78%2014-03-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: +2.90%2014-03-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +3.33%2014-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +3.78%2014-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +4.47%2014-03-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +5.14%2014-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +2.51%2014-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +0.73%2014-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +2.40%2014-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +1.99%2014-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +1.71%2014-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +2.10%2014-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +1.89%2014-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −0.19%2014-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +0.34%2014-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2015-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +1.57%2015-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.11) · SPY 63d: +1.27%2015-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +1.42%2015-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2015-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2015-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +1.07%2015-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +0.84%2015-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −0.52%2015-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −0.20%2015-03-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −0.16%2015-03-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +1.69%2015-03-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +1.10%2015-03-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +0.19%2015-09-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +7.46%2015-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +3.09%2015-10-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 63d: +1.46%2015-10-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 63d: +0.52%2015-10-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: −2.69%2015-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.32) · SPY 63d: −4.62%2015-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: −4.58%2015-10-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: −3.90%2015-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 63d: −5.70%2015-10-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.73) · SPY 63d: −3.69%2015-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.64) · SPY 63d: −7.19%2015-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.78) · SPY 63d: −7.48%2015-10-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: −8.71%2015-10-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.45) · SPY 63d: −8.08%2015-10-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: −5.61%2015-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.60) · SPY 63d: −8.58%2015-10-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.57) · SPY 63d: −8.34%2015-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: −9.12%2015-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: −8.47%2015-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 63d: −7.29%2015-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −7.27%2015-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: −8.55%2015-11-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: −9.07%2015-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: −9.19%2015-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −10.65%2015-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.97) · SPY 63d: −11.72%2015-11-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.73) · SPY 63d: −10.96%2015-11-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: −12.32%2015-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: −10.16%2015-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: −7.35%2015-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −4.77%2015-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: −6.58%2015-11-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: −6.56%2015-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: −6.68%2015-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −7.78%2015-11-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: −7.70%2015-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −6.47%2015-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: −6.81%2015-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −7.53%2015-11-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −5.46%2015-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −4.64%2015-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: −5.17%2015-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −3.88%2015-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −2.44%2015-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: −5.35%2015-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: −4.30%2015-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −3.58%2016-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.95%2016-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +6.40%2016-05-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +6.57%2016-05-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +7.18%2016-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +6.35%2016-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +6.49%2016-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +5.34%2016-05-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +4.09%2016-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +3.99%2016-05-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +3.35%2016-05-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +4.06%2016-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: +3.68%2016-06-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +3.07%2016-06-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +3.38%2016-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +3.32%2016-06-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +3.47%2016-06-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +3.13%2016-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +3.03%2016-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +3.79%2016-06-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +2.60%2016-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +3.32%2016-07-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +0.77%2016-07-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +0.56%2016-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −0.69%2016-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −1.11%2016-07-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −1.56%2016-07-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: −1.23%2016-07-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −0.86%2016-07-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −1.82%2016-08-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −0.70%2016-08-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −1.22%2016-08-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −0.63%2016-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +7.98%2016-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +7.53%2016-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +7.90%2016-11-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +7.99%2016-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +8.14%2016-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +7.40%2016-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +7.33%2016-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +7.43%2016-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +6.75%2016-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +8.75%2016-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +7.86%2016-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +3.37%2016-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +3.58%2016-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +3.66%2016-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +4.26%2016-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +4.10%2016-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +5.30%2016-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +5.08%2017-06-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +1.27%2018-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −7.08%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −14.24%2018-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +0.59%2018-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −0.85%2018-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 63d: −2.30%2018-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −0.85%2018-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: −0.66%2018-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 63d: −1.35%2018-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.65) · SPY 63d: −3.73%2018-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.18) · SPY 63d: −5.83%2018-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.15) · SPY 63d: −5.40%2018-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 63d: −6.06%2018-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.44) · SPY 63d: −4.18%2018-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −4.48%2018-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −1.75%2018-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −1.84%2018-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −0.61%2018-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −1.56%2018-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −3.19%2018-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −6.04%2018-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −6.54%2018-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −6.45%2018-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −5.97%2018-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −6.39%2018-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −8.42%2018-12-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −10.26%2018-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −11.14%2018-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −12.89%2018-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −16.79%2018-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −19.34%2018-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −14.03%2018-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −13.87%2019-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +7.69%2019-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +8.29%2019-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −5.06%2019-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −30.52%2019-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −24.19%2019-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: −23.17%2019-12-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −18.69%2020-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −15.20%2020-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −12.39%2020-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: −13.71%2020-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: −11.88%2020-02-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −11.58%2020-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +17.66%2020-05-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +14.55%2020-05-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +15.98%2020-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +13.57%2020-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +14.72%2020-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +14.91%2020-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +14.66%2020-05-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +14.46%2020-06-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +6.52%2020-07-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +8.39%2020-07-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +8.25%2020-08-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +5.97%2020-08-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +7.07%2020-08-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +5.39%2020-08-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +3.62%2020-08-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +3.88%2020-08-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +3.73%2020-08-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +3.65%2020-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +3.81%2020-09-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +2.54%2021-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +5.51%2021-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +4.54%2021-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +3.37%2021-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +7.19%2021-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +7.76%2021-06-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: +7.43%2021-06-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 63d: +7.89%2021-06-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.92) · SPY 63d: +7.24%2021-06-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.79) · SPY 63d: +7.32%2021-06-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 63d: +6.91%2021-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 63d: +6.94%2021-06-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2021-06-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 63d: +4.98%2021-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.53) · SPY 63d: +5.01%2021-06-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +4.64%2021-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +6.11%2021-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.70) · SPY 63d: +5.97%2021-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.54) · SPY 63d: +6.38%2021-06-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 63d: +3.13%2021-06-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.47) · SPY 63d: +2.49%2021-06-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +3.61%2021-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: +4.25%2021-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +4.06%2021-06-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.70) · SPY 63d: +3.55%2021-06-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.57) · SPY 63d: +1.41%2021-06-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 63d: +1.49%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 63d: −0.30%2021-07-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: +0.12%2021-07-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: −0.99%2021-07-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: −0.31%2021-07-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +0.92%2021-07-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +0.72%2021-07-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +0.18%2021-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −0.21%2021-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: −3.90%2021-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −4.54%2021-11-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: −3.84%2021-11-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: −2.10%2021-11-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: −3.08%2021-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: −5.03%2021-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −6.05%2021-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: −4.56%2021-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −4.83%2021-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −7.56%2021-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.11) · SPY 63d: −8.39%2021-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: −9.76%2021-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: −8.52%2021-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −6.75%2021-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −4.87%2021-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: −7.45%2021-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −3.88%2023-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −2.79%2023-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −1.03%2023-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +0.54%2023-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +1.24%2023-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: −0.58%2023-02-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +0.30%2023-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +2.60%2023-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +4.61%2023-02-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +5.60%2023-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +5.87%2023-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +6.93%2023-03-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +11.74%2023-03-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +12.68%2023-03-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +11.03%2023-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +9.03%2023-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +11.32%2023-03-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +10.18%2023-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +9.02%2023-03-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +9.80%2023-03-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +8.40%2023-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +7.83%2023-05-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +6.11%2023-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: +5.41%2023-05-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +6.90%2023-05-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +7.94%2023-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +6.76%2023-06-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +5.44%2023-06-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.18%2023-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +4.25%2023-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +2.26%2023-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +3.02%2023-06-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +0.17%2023-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +0.95%2023-06-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +1.26%2023-06-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +0.85%2023-06-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −1.17%2024-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +2.64%2024-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +3.36%2024-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +4.29%2024-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +4.13%2024-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +3.17%2024-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +4.28%2024-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +3.82%2024-01-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +2.26%2024-01-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +3.62%2024-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +3.24%2024-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.45) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2024-02-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.91) · SPY 63d: +4.88%2024-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +4.69%2024-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.80) · SPY 63d: +3.83%2024-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2024-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.89) · SPY 63d: +3.92%2024-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.78) · SPY 63d: +3.98%2024-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.64) · SPY 63d: +5.91%2024-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.76) · SPY 63d: +6.26%2024-02-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: +5.32%2024-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2024-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +6.70%2024-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.81) · SPY 63d: +4.40%2024-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.68) · SPY 63d: +3.57%2024-02-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.57) · SPY 63d: +4.63%2024-02-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 63d: +4.51%2024-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: +3.92%2024-02-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +2.86%2024-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +2.83%2024-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.64) · SPY 63d: +3.03%2024-03-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.56) · SPY 63d: +4.18%2024-03-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.69) · SPY 63d: +4.89%2024-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.91) · SPY 63d: +3.86%2024-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 63d: +4.36%2024-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: +4.77%2024-03-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: +3.90%2024-03-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +4.92%2024-03-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +5.34%2024-03-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +6.46%2024-03-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +6.68%2024-03-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +6.36%2024-03-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +5.10%2024-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +4.27%2024-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +4.13%2024-03-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +4.82%2024-03-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +5.15%2024-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2024-05-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +6.12%2024-06-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +2.79%2024-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +3.61%2024-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +3.70%2024-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +2.92%2024-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +2.35%2025-04-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −22.77%2025-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +6.57%2025-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +6.09%2025-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +5.91%2000-06-162015-12-082025-07-17
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.