VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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PoorlyweatherSP-6763

Weather grade: Minneapolis

Composite weather grade Minneapolis.

Sectors:Regional MetrosWeather & Climate
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 53% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.31%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6556. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18
1.94
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 97%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 97%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 98%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Weather grade: Minneapolis
1.94▼ -82.59 (-97.70%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
103.476.5849.7322.88-3.98Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

51%
+0.00%
1 d
51%
+0.08%
1 wk
↑52%
+0.21%
1 mo
↑53%
+0.31%
3 mo
↑52%
+0.56%
6 mo
↑53%
+0.48%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,556
+0.00%
51% same direction
+0.08%
51% same direction
+0.21%
52% same direction
+0.31%
53% same direction
+0.56%
52% same direction
+0.48%
53% same direction
WTI
crude oil
n=6,385
-0.04%
49% same direction
+0.09%
49% same direction
-0.52%
45% same direction
-2.7%
43% same direction
-2.3%
46% same direction
+2.1%
52% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreGold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
126 fires · 37% positive · avg −1.21%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2024-12-19 (525 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−26.6%−13.3%0%+13.3%+26.6%2000-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: +7.07%2000-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: +6.32%2000-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 63d: +7.40%2000-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: +6.54%2001-04-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −2.54%2001-04-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: −2.72%2001-04-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −3.95%2001-05-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −3.71%2001-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: −5.67%2001-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 63d: +3.69%2001-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 63d: +3.71%2002-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −15.05%2002-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +2.22%2003-04-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +13.00%2003-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −5.35%2003-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −3.73%2003-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −6.47%2003-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −7.02%2003-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −4.10%2003-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −5.48%2004-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −5.90%2004-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: −7.08%2004-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −3.72%2004-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: −1.00%2004-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −1.52%2004-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +2.93%2004-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: +2.86%2005-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −1.59%2005-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 63d: −4.07%2005-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −5.02%2005-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −4.80%2005-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −0.86%2005-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −2.49%2005-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −2.59%2006-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −2.01%2006-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −8.38%2006-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −8.69%2006-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −7.72%2006-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −5.33%2006-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +0.25%2006-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −0.88%2007-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: +4.85%2007-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: +14.07%2007-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +10.45%2008-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +26.56%2008-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: +4.14%2008-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: +11.45%2008-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: +6.81%2008-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +20.18%2008-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +15.64%2009-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.59) · SPY 63d: −8.23%2009-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −10.58%2009-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −7.77%2009-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 63d: −3.58%2009-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −0.91%2009-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −1.14%2009-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −2.26%2009-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.33%2009-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −4.95%2009-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −4.38%2010-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −10.25%2010-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −11.80%2010-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −9.22%2011-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −15.25%2012-01-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −4.76%2012-01-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −4.55%2012-01-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −3.94%2012-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.42) · SPY 63d: −6.11%2012-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −6.77%2013-04-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +5.83%2013-04-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +5.58%2013-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +5.51%2013-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2013-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +3.57%2013-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +1.58%2013-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +0.63%2013-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −8.82%2013-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: −0.69%2013-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −1.42%2013-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −4.00%2013-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −4.75%2013-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −3.48%2014-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +5.78%2014-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2015-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: +7.29%2015-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: +10.16%2015-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +7.35%2016-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −4.90%2016-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −7.12%2016-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −8.14%2016-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −7.33%2016-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −7.43%2018-05-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +7.53%2018-05-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +6.61%2018-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +6.64%2018-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +9.92%2018-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +6.94%2020-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 63d: −7.47%2020-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −11.90%2020-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −11.54%2020-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −10.36%2021-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −4.38%2021-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −1.94%2021-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −5.95%2021-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: +1.25%2021-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: +3.57%2021-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: +5.03%2022-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +5.24%2022-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 63d: −9.06%2022-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.24) · SPY 63d: −4.60%2022-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −4.77%2022-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −2.46%2022-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −0.65%2023-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +8.86%2023-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +8.66%2023-05-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +10.29%2023-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +7.16%2023-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −9.58%2023-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −11.19%2023-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −10.06%2023-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −15.20%2023-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −19.08%2023-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −9.99%2024-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: −5.83%2024-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: +7.17%2024-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +1.81%2000-08-172011-12-142024-12-19
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
Regime-tuned params · AutoResearch v13Analyst · preview
Regime matters
This indicator's strongest predictive edge sits in High VIX (stress): tuned σ = 2, window = 240d, horizon = 252d, hit-rate deviation from chance = 50.0pp.
RegimeσWindowHorizonHit dev
● Low VIX (calm)2.50180d21d41.7pp
● Normal VIX2.7590d63d30.0pp
● High VIX (stress)2.00240d252d50.0pp

Hit-rate deviation = |hit% − 50%| at the row's tuned horizon. Big deviation = strong directional edge in that regime. Regimes split by daily VIX terciles (low / normal / high) over a 1-year rolling window. Analyst + Trader subscribers will be able to filter the home grid and the fire-history bar chart by regime.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.