US National Precipitation (pop-weighted)
A daily rainfall reading for the US, weighted by metro population. We pull observed precipitation (mm) from the 30 largest metros and average them with each metro's population as the weight, so a wet day in NYC counts more than a wet day in Boise. Updated each morning after the prior day's weather feeds settle. A reading of 0.22 means the population-weighted average rainfall yesterday was 0.22 millimeters — i.e. effectively dry across most metros. Higher values mean broader, heavier rain across major US cities. We track it because consumer behavior — restaurant reservations, retail foot traffic, mood — is measurably weather-sensitive in the aggregate.
— Current state —
— What it has historically predicted —
On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged +7.6% over the next year, moving in the same direction as the signal 75% of the time.
— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —
Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).
— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —
Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.