VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardtechnicalSP-4708

SPY MACD histogram

MACD line minus signal line the visual histogram bars. Sign-flips are the conventional buy/sell trigger; we test them honestly.

the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 52% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.03%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6557. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-22
-0.96
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 121%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 485%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 181%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 → 2026-05-22

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

SPY MACD histogram
-0.9588▼ -2.28 (-172.50%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
6.974.311.65-1.01-3.68May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-22 → 2026-05-22 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
+0.00%
1 d
50%
−0.01%
1 wk
50%
−0.04%
1 mo
52%
−0.03%
3 mo
50%
−0.08%
6 mo
52%
+0.29%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,557
+0.00%
49% same direction
-0.01%
50% same direction
-0.04%
50% same direction
-0.03%
52% same direction
-0.08%
50% same direction
+0.29%
52% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=6,596
+0.25%
53% same direction
+1.1%
54% same direction
+3.1%
55% same direction
+3.6%
55% same direction
+4.5%
55% same direction
+4.0%
54% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
192 fires · 34% positive · avg −3.57%
−39.3%−19.7%0%+19.7%+39.3%2000-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −0.84%2000-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −1.48%2000-03-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: −4.61%2000-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: −5.98%2000-03-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −3.75%2000-04-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −11.03%2000-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −6.40%2000-04-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −2.83%2001-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: −2.41%2001-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2001-04-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: −2.54%2001-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −2.69%2001-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −17.30%2001-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −17.86%2002-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −7.83%2002-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −12.78%2002-07-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −2.84%2002-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +0.73%2002-08-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: −0.58%2002-08-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −1.07%2002-08-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −0.80%2002-08-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −3.54%2002-08-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: −4.76%2002-08-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −2.67%2002-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: −4.19%2002-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: −4.14%2002-08-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.63%2002-08-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −4.46%2004-03-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −2.54%2004-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −2.65%2004-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −3.01%2006-05-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −3.03%2006-05-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −2.83%2006-05-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −3.17%2006-05-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −3.96%2007-02-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −9.13%2007-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 63d: −8.91%2007-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.07) · SPY 63d: −9.12%2007-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.69) · SPY 63d: −11.11%2007-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.16) · SPY 63d: −12.20%2007-03-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.27) · SPY 63d: −9.87%2007-03-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.53) · SPY 63d: −8.80%2007-03-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −5.94%2007-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −4.64%2007-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 63d: −4.23%2007-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 63d: −5.77%2007-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −4.53%2007-08-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −5.03%2008-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +10.74%2008-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.57) · SPY 63d: +9.36%2008-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.17) · SPY 63d: +6.64%2008-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.02) · SPY 63d: +1.77%2008-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.23) · SPY 63d: +1.75%2008-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: +14.05%2008-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: −14.19%2008-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: −15.78%2008-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: −9.57%2010-05-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +0.08%2010-05-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.50) · SPY 63d: −1.02%2010-05-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +2.73%2011-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −15.51%2011-07-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 63d: −17.85%2011-07-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 63d: −16.14%2011-07-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 63d: −15.47%2011-07-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: −13.33%2011-08-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +3.31%2011-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 63d: −3.10%2011-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.11) · SPY 63d: −5.14%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.48) · SPY 63d: −11.78%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.76) · SPY 63d: −7.47%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.86) · SPY 63d: −13.88%2011-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 63d: −4.97%2011-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −5.25%2011-08-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +2.27%2011-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +3.33%2013-06-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −8.19%2014-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −6.75%2014-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −8.25%2014-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +1.80%2014-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +0.68%2014-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +1.27%2014-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: +1.58%2014-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +1.14%2014-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +2.51%2014-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +1.59%2014-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +0.73%2014-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −5.86%2015-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.35) · SPY 63d: −10.45%2015-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.49) · SPY 63d: −11.64%2015-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.52) · SPY 63d: −7.66%2015-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −5.04%2015-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −4.62%2015-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: −4.58%2015-10-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: −3.90%2018-02-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 63d: +3.42%2018-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.83) · SPY 63d: −1.13%2018-02-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.90) · SPY 63d: +0.82%2018-02-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.60) · SPY 63d: −0.68%2018-02-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-7.48) · SPY 63d: −5.59%2018-02-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.53) · SPY 63d: −4.34%2018-02-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.09) · SPY 63d: −2.88%2018-02-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.97) · SPY 63d: −1.92%2018-02-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −0.98%2018-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −6.47%2018-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +5.43%2018-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +5.65%2018-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.89%2018-11-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: −2.28%2018-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −12.89%2018-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 63d: −16.79%2018-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.02) · SPY 63d: −19.34%2018-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −14.03%2019-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +11.33%2019-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +12.04%2019-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +12.65%2019-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +11.45%2019-01-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +8.94%2020-02-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 63d: +4.34%2020-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.30) · SPY 63d: +2.56%2020-02-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.74) · SPY 63d: −1.84%2020-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.06) · SPY 63d: −2.72%2020-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.73) · SPY 63d: +1.15%2020-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.35) · SPY 63d: −2.61%2020-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: +0.22%2020-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −2.94%2020-03-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −7.36%2020-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.88) · SPY 63d: −17.86%2020-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 63d: −11.22%2020-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.67) · SPY 63d: −16.27%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.03) · SPY 63d: −21.16%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.10) · SPY 63d: −12.96%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.78) · SPY 63d: −28.02%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.03) · SPY 63d: −23.80%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 63d: −29.86%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 63d: −29.63%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −34.89%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −39.32%2020-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +18.47%2020-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +19.25%2020-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +14.72%2020-04-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +14.16%2020-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: +14.21%2020-04-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +12.38%2020-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +15.87%2020-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +14.94%2020-04-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +12.24%2021-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −5.95%2021-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −4.92%2021-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.75%2021-10-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +0.25%2021-10-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: −1.25%2021-10-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −3.44%2021-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −2.93%2021-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −4.63%2021-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −4.95%2021-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: +3.28%2021-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +5.52%2021-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +7.50%2022-01-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: +1.94%2022-01-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 63d: +2.73%2022-01-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.49) · SPY 63d: +2.58%2022-01-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.56) · SPY 63d: +4.23%2022-01-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: +3.72%2022-01-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: +0.80%2022-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −15.60%2022-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: −16.73%2022-03-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −14.81%2022-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −13.41%2022-03-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −14.16%2022-03-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −16.51%2022-03-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −17.59%2023-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +11.87%2023-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +11.08%2023-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +10.33%2024-07-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −7.35%2024-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −10.37%2024-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −9.13%2024-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −11.19%2024-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +4.67%2024-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +5.27%2024-08-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +5.29%2025-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −8.48%2025-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.60%2025-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −9.49%2025-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −23.73%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.57) · SPY 63d: −26.05%2025-04-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +15.32%2025-04-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +14.46%2025-04-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +13.98%2025-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +11.33%2025-05-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +11.37%2025-05-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +11.44%2000-03-212018-02-062025-05-05
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.