VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardtechnicalSP-4890

Copper MACD histogram

Copper MACD histogram.

the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 47% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.34%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6399. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
FCX

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-25
-0.00
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 106%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 23%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 112%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-21 → 2026-05-25

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Copper MACD histogram
-0.0042▼ -0.0102 (-169.52%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
0.08090.0130-0.0549-0.1229-0.1908May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-30 → 2026-05-25 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.02%
1 d
49%
−0.11%
1 wk
↓53%
−0.34%
1 mo
50%
+0.00%
3 mo
49%
−0.29%
6 mo
51%
+0.59%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,399
-0.02%
49% same direction
-0.11%
49% same direction
-0.34%
47% same direction
+0.00%
50% same direction
-0.29%
49% same direction
+0.59%
51% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=6,411
+0.20%
52% same direction
+0.86%
53% same direction
+2.3%
53% same direction
+0.95%
51% same direction
+2.5%
52% same direction
+1.8%
51% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
183 fires · 38% positive · avg −1.83%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2025-08-11 (290 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−25.2%−12.6%0%+12.6%+25.2%2001-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: −2.17%2001-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 21d: −1.33%2001-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 21d: −0.50%2001-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 21d: +0.54%2001-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 21d: +0.02%2001-11-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: −0.13%2003-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.24) · SPY 21d: −5.67%2003-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.49) · SPY 21d: −5.30%2003-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 21d: −3.82%2003-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 21d: −3.50%2003-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: −4.50%2004-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 21d: −2.69%2004-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 21d: −2.24%2004-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.81) · SPY 21d: −3.62%2004-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 21d: −4.55%2004-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: −4.48%2004-03-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 21d: +0.05%2004-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 21d: −0.11%2004-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.12) · SPY 21d: −1.59%2004-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 21d: −3.33%2004-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 21d: −0.56%2004-04-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: +2.44%2004-04-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 21d: −0.04%2004-04-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 21d: −0.92%2004-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +1.48%2004-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: +0.20%2004-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 21d: −5.55%2004-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: −7.08%2005-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: −4.07%2005-09-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: −2.93%2005-09-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −2.33%2006-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +0.12%2006-03-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 21d: +0.29%2006-03-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 21d: +1.40%2006-03-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: +1.11%2006-03-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +0.46%2006-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: +0.89%2006-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +1.15%2006-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 21d: +1.14%2006-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +2.38%2006-04-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +2.17%2006-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +1.80%2006-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +0.28%2006-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: +0.61%2006-04-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 21d: +0.51%2006-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.93) · SPY 21d: −2.95%2006-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.81) · SPY 21d: −3.62%2006-04-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 21d: −3.07%2006-04-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.89) · SPY 21d: −3.83%2006-04-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.56) · SPY 21d: −4.38%2006-04-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.05) · SPY 21d: −3.22%2006-04-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.27) · SPY 21d: −2.05%2006-04-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −2.02%2006-05-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 21d: +0.89%2006-05-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: +1.07%2006-05-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 21d: +0.19%2006-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.17) · SPY 21d: +1.13%2006-06-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.09) · SPY 21d: +0.93%2006-06-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.78) · SPY 21d: +0.04%2006-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.83) · SPY 21d: −0.50%2006-06-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 21d: −0.60%2006-06-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.70) · SPY 21d: −0.88%2006-06-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.94) · SPY 21d: −1.64%2006-06-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.98) · SPY 21d: −1.66%2006-06-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.44) · SPY 21d: −1.18%2006-06-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.21) · SPY 21d: −0.02%2006-06-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 21d: +2.20%2006-06-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: +0.55%2007-05-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 21d: −0.97%2007-05-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 21d: −1.05%2007-05-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 21d: −0.43%2007-05-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 21d: +0.92%2007-05-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: +0.29%2007-05-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: +1.24%2007-05-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 21d: +0.81%2008-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: +6.82%2008-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 21d: −4.67%2010-01-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 21d: −4.48%2010-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 21d: −2.97%2010-02-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 21d: −2.05%2010-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 21d: −4.02%2010-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 21d: −7.36%2010-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 21d: −7.31%2010-02-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 21d: −8.58%2011-02-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −0.28%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 21d: −7.15%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 21d: −1.33%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.63) · SPY 21d: −3.23%2011-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 21d: +0.56%2011-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: +0.32%2011-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 21d: −10.53%2011-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 21d: −5.86%2011-09-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: −5.75%2011-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −11.72%2011-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: −10.81%2011-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: −6.93%2011-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: −6.65%2011-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: −0.41%2014-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: +2.20%2014-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 21d: +1.98%2014-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: +0.93%2015-01-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −4.44%2015-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 21d: −5.57%2016-11-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 21d: +4.68%2016-11-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.79) · SPY 21d: +4.30%2016-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.71) · SPY 21d: +4.29%2016-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 21d: +3.91%2016-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: +3.29%2016-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: +0.11%2016-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −0.81%2016-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: −1.86%2017-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 21d: −1.94%2017-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 21d: −2.45%2017-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 21d: −2.30%2017-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 21d: −2.30%2017-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 21d: −2.29%2017-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 21d: −3.10%2017-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: −2.67%2017-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: +0.96%2017-10-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +0.38%2017-12-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +7.26%2017-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +6.49%2020-01-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 21d: +4.90%2020-01-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 21d: +3.71%2020-01-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.36) · SPY 21d: +8.99%2020-01-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.52) · SPY 21d: +9.29%2020-01-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.51) · SPY 21d: +5.67%2020-01-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.20) · SPY 21d: +6.68%2020-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.78) · SPY 21d: +3.47%2020-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 21d: +8.08%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 21d: −19.43%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.53) · SPY 21d: −17.08%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.44) · SPY 21d: −19.34%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 21d: −25.19%2020-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: −14.78%2021-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 21d: +0.66%2021-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.00) · SPY 21d: +0.64%2021-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.22) · SPY 21d: +0.01%2021-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.57) · SPY 21d: −0.53%2021-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.17) · SPY 21d: +3.57%2021-02-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: +4.05%2021-04-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 21d: +0.37%2021-04-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: +0.45%2021-06-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −3.89%2021-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +4.83%2021-10-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +4.94%2021-10-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +3.88%2022-05-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: +1.18%2022-05-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −0.24%2022-06-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: −4.63%2022-06-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: −0.21%2022-06-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −3.20%2022-07-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: −2.27%2022-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −3.06%2022-08-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 21d: −3.16%2024-03-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: −2.40%2024-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +3.20%2024-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +2.48%2024-05-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −3.44%2024-05-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.73) · SPY 21d: −4.35%2024-05-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.48) · SPY 21d: −4.10%2024-06-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.31) · SPY 21d: −4.48%2024-06-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.61) · SPY 21d: −4.97%2024-06-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.17) · SPY 21d: −3.85%2024-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 21d: −3.96%2024-06-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 21d: −5.11%2024-06-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 21d: −3.89%2024-06-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 21d: −4.29%2024-06-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −3.73%2025-04-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.55) · SPY 21d: −10.59%2025-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.98) · SPY 21d: −11.25%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.50) · SPY 21d: −13.81%2025-04-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.21) · SPY 21d: −2.86%2025-04-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.35) · SPY 21d: −11.13%2025-04-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 21d: −9.91%2025-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 21d: −2.05%2025-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.20) · SPY 21d: −2.98%2025-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.49) · SPY 21d: −1.99%2025-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.31) · SPY 21d: −3.37%2025-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.77) · SPY 21d: −2.28%2025-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.17) · SPY 21d: −2.62%2025-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 21d: −2.06%2025-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 21d: −2.56%2001-11-132011-09-262025-08-11
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.