VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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StandardmacroSP-3990

Lowe's (LOW) stock price

Lowe's companion to HD; pair-trade divergence reveals channel mix shifts.

the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 47% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.41%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6585. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
LOW

Current state

Latest value · 2026-05-22
215.0
vs ~6 weeks ago
12%
vs 60 days ago
19%
vs 7 days ago
2.5%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 2026-05-22

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Lowe's (LOW) stock price
215.0 -8.72 (-3.90%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
290.5269.8249.1228.4207.8May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-22 → 2026-05-22 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.02%
1 d
51%
−0.03%
1 wk
53%
−0.41%
1 mo
49%
−0.32%
3 mo
49%
−0.88%
6 mo
52%
+0.55%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,585
-0.02%
49% same direction
-0.03%
51% same direction
-0.41%
47% same direction
-0.32%
49% same direction
-0.88%
49% same direction
+0.55%
52% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=6,497
+0.31%
52% same direction
+1.2%
53% same direction
+3.7%
56% same direction
+6.2%
56% same direction
+7.9%
57% same direction
+6.2%
55% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
346 fires · 34% positive · avg 2.20%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2025-04-08 (415 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−25.2%−12.6%0%+12.6%+25.2%2001-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: −9.56%2001-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: −11.02%2001-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: −12.91%2001-02-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: −11.99%2001-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: −12.42%2001-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 21d: −12.56%2001-02-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: −7.29%2001-02-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −9.02%2001-03-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −12.08%2001-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 21d: −9.40%2001-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 21d: −10.87%2001-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 21d: −7.13%2001-03-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: +10.03%2001-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +10.90%2001-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 21d: −7.00%2001-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +1.30%2001-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +3.06%2001-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +2.02%2001-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: −0.52%2001-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: −0.70%2001-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −0.85%2002-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 21d: −12.62%2002-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 21d: −14.83%2002-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.95) · SPY 21d: −19.76%2002-07-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −14.12%2002-07-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.59) · SPY 21d: −12.62%2002-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 21d: −11.29%2002-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 21d: −3.38%2002-08-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.90) · SPY 21d: −1.72%2002-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 21d: −6.89%2002-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 21d: −2.53%2002-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 21d: −2.16%2002-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 21d: +0.32%2002-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 21d: −0.45%2002-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 21d: −0.56%2002-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 21d: −0.54%2003-08-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: +2.89%2003-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +3.71%2003-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +3.21%2003-08-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +1.77%2003-08-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +3.18%2003-08-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +0.17%2003-08-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: −1.47%2003-09-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: −0.70%2003-09-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: −0.88%2003-09-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: −0.02%2004-05-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: −4.56%2004-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: +1.21%2004-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −1.14%2004-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.47%2004-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 21d: −3.43%2004-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 21d: −5.63%2004-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 21d: −5.21%2004-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: −6.04%2004-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: +0.70%2004-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +2.13%2004-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +1.68%2005-07-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +0.88%2005-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +1.14%2005-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +0.12%2005-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 21d: +0.80%2005-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 21d: −0.11%2005-07-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.99) · SPY 21d: −0.67%2005-07-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.83) · SPY 21d: −1.01%2005-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 21d: −0.20%2005-07-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 21d: −0.87%2005-07-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 21d: −0.77%2005-07-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 21d: −1.78%2005-07-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 21d: −1.78%2005-07-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.45) · SPY 21d: −3.06%2005-07-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 21d: −1.66%2005-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: −2.10%2005-08-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: −1.46%2005-08-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: −1.79%2005-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: −4.76%2006-07-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −0.44%2006-07-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: +0.34%2006-07-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.43) · SPY 21d: −1.05%2006-07-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 21d: −2.43%2006-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 21d: −2.91%2006-07-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: −4.29%2006-07-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 21d: −4.62%2006-07-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −4.69%2006-07-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −4.99%2006-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −2.60%2006-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −2.18%2007-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: −5.02%2007-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −3.53%2007-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −0.21%2007-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 21d: −1.27%2007-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: +2.48%2007-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 21d: −0.56%2007-08-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 21d: −3.67%2007-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.08%2007-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 21d: −0.24%2007-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 21d: −0.27%2007-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.92%2007-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: −1.82%2007-08-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 21d: −4.13%2007-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 21d: −5.57%2007-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 21d: −4.22%2007-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: −5.36%2007-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: +3.95%2007-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 21d: +0.83%2007-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 21d: +0.74%2007-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 21d: −2.03%2007-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 21d: −3.34%2007-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 21d: −1.91%2007-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 21d: −3.95%2007-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: +0.34%2007-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 21d: −1.47%2007-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 21d: −1.49%2007-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 21d: −4.55%2007-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 21d: −3.54%2007-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 21d: −6.10%2007-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 21d: −3.58%2008-07-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: −3.25%2008-07-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 21d: −5.55%2008-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 21d: −5.40%2008-07-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 21d: −6.26%2008-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: −3.48%2008-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 21d: −4.67%2008-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −1.28%2008-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: +2.31%2008-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 21d: −2.04%2009-02-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −7.97%2009-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: −12.63%2009-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: −15.68%2009-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −16.31%2009-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 21d: −22.47%2009-03-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: −21.30%2009-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: −19.88%2009-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +3.16%2009-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 21d: +2.73%2009-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +2.06%2010-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −1.99%2010-04-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: −4.29%2010-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: −6.10%2010-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −6.19%2010-04-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: −7.54%2010-04-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: −10.87%2010-04-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 21d: −9.84%2010-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 21d: −11.58%2010-04-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 21d: −11.15%2010-04-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −9.51%2010-05-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: −8.33%2011-08-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: +2.61%2011-08-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: +4.15%2011-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 21d: +2.00%2011-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: +2.57%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.70) · SPY 21d: −7.15%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 21d: −1.33%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.82) · SPY 21d: −3.23%2011-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 21d: +0.56%2011-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: +0.32%2011-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: +1.04%2011-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: −5.07%2011-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: −6.69%2011-08-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 21d: −3.46%2012-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +0.71%2012-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +0.50%2012-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −1.01%2012-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +2.75%2012-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +3.03%2014-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: +1.73%2014-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 21d: +0.90%2014-08-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 21d: −0.18%2014-08-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 21d: −0.59%2014-08-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 21d: −0.32%2014-08-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 21d: −1.99%2014-08-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −1.17%2014-08-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: −1.30%2014-08-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: −1.84%2014-09-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 21d: −3.12%2014-09-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −3.05%2014-09-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 21d: −1.84%2014-09-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 21d: −2.40%2014-09-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: −3.65%2014-09-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.34%2014-09-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: −3.66%2014-09-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: −7.01%2014-09-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: −7.21%2014-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: −6.62%2014-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: −5.18%2014-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +2.69%2014-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +3.03%2014-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +3.28%2014-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +1.70%2014-11-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +1.54%2014-11-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: −0.40%2014-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +0.01%2014-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −1.50%2014-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: −2.29%2014-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: −3.10%2014-11-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: −1.26%2014-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 21d: +0.63%2014-11-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 21d: +0.92%2014-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 21d: +0.52%2014-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 21d: +0.25%2014-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 21d: +0.64%2014-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 21d: +0.52%2014-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +0.19%2014-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: −0.11%2014-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: −0.80%2014-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: −2.97%2014-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: −3.77%2014-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: −2.74%2014-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 21d: −0.34%2014-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −1.07%2014-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: −0.25%2014-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: −1.03%2014-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: −0.01%2014-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: −0.25%2014-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +0.13%2014-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −1.79%2014-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: −0.20%2014-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: −1.21%2014-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: −1.11%2014-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −3.22%2015-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −1.96%2017-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +2.83%2017-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +5.81%2017-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: +6.09%2017-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: +5.83%2017-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 21d: +5.90%2017-12-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 21d: +7.26%2017-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +6.49%2017-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 21d: +5.18%2017-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.11) · SPY 21d: +5.64%2018-01-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: +4.77%2018-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 21d: +1.84%2018-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −2.83%2018-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: −1.57%2018-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: −2.28%2018-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: −6.16%2018-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −4.60%2018-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 21d: −3.90%2018-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.02) · SPY 21d: −4.29%2018-01-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.86) · SPY 21d: −2.67%2018-01-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.83) · SPY 21d: −2.35%2018-01-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 21d: −2.16%2018-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.09) · SPY 21d: −3.21%2018-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.26) · SPY 21d: −4.47%2018-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.04) · SPY 21d: −4.55%2018-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.80) · SPY 21d: −2.99%2018-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.60) · SPY 21d: −1.91%2018-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.60) · SPY 21d: −4.24%2018-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 21d: −4.58%2018-01-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 21d: −4.99%2018-01-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −4.55%2018-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: −3.33%2018-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −3.72%2018-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −5.86%2018-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −5.09%2018-09-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: −5.90%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 21d: −11.10%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.90) · SPY 21d: −15.81%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.47) · SPY 21d: −10.40%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.23) · SPY 21d: −19.43%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.35) · SPY 21d: −17.08%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.48) · SPY 21d: −19.34%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.10) · SPY 21d: −25.19%2020-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 21d: −14.78%2021-03-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: +5.44%2021-03-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +5.46%2021-03-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: +6.42%2021-03-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +5.29%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +4.39%2021-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 21d: +2.28%2021-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: +2.37%2021-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: +3.07%2021-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: +3.33%2021-04-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 21d: +1.57%2021-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 21d: +0.62%2021-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.11) · SPY 21d: −1.80%2021-04-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 21d: −0.28%2021-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 21d: +0.17%2021-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.58) · SPY 21d: −0.42%2021-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 21d: −0.79%2021-04-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −0.32%2021-04-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: −0.19%2021-04-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: +0.65%2021-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +0.58%2021-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +0.74%2021-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +0.04%2021-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: +0.89%2021-10-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +3.37%2021-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +3.19%2021-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +2.77%2021-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +2.96%2021-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: +1.11%2021-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +1.37%2021-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: −0.80%2021-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −2.43%2021-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: −1.74%2021-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: −0.60%2021-11-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: −1.77%2021-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: −3.14%2021-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 21d: −1.24%2021-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 21d: +0.03%2021-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +0.52%2021-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 21d: +1.67%2021-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +3.90%2021-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +2.77%2021-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: +4.44%2021-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: +5.32%2021-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +2.09%2021-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: −0.07%2021-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 21d: −0.73%2021-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: −0.18%2021-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 21d: −0.21%2021-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +0.95%2021-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: −1.25%2023-06-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +2.98%2023-07-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 21d: +2.07%2023-07-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: +0.74%2023-07-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: −0.03%2023-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: −0.87%2023-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −0.26%2023-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −3.20%2023-07-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: −4.15%2023-07-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: −3.47%2023-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 21d: −2.84%2023-07-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: −3.53%2023-07-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: −2.73%2023-07-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −4.09%2023-07-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: −2.77%2023-07-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: −3.10%2023-07-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.88%2024-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: −4.30%2024-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: −2.99%2024-09-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +1.17%2024-09-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +1.64%2024-09-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 21d: +1.40%2024-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: +2.00%2024-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: −0.04%2024-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +0.57%2024-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +3.12%2024-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: +3.20%2024-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +3.31%2024-10-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +2.15%2024-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +3.00%2024-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: +1.90%2024-10-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: +0.58%2024-10-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +0.61%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −13.81%2001-02-012014-09-022025-04-08
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.