VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardcommoditiesSP-1592

Brent Crude

Front-month Brent crude futures price.

Sectors:Energy & Commodities
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 52% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.12%. Status: OOS validated. n = 4595. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
USOXOMCVX

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-25
95.1
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 5.2%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 11%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 14%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-22 → 2026-05-25

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Brent Crude
93.88▲ +29.25 (+45.26%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
120.7104.788.6372.5956.54Jun 25Aug 25Nov 25Mar 26May 26
2025-06-02 → 2026-05-27 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
−0.01%
1 d
49%
−0.08%
1 wk
52%
+0.06%
1 mo
52%
+0.12%
3 mo
49%
−0.04%
6 mo
48%
−0.72%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=4,595
-0.01%
50% same direction
-0.08%
49% same direction
+0.06%
52% same direction
+0.12%
52% same direction
-0.04%
49% same direction
-0.72%
48% same direction
DXY
dollar index
n=4,429
+0.00%
51% same direction
-0.00%
50% same direction
+0.00%
51% same direction
-0.03%
50% same direction
+0.01%
51% same direction
+0.50%
55% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
307 fires · 28% positive · avg −4.35%
−39.3%−19.7%0%+19.7%+39.3%2008-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −7.59%2008-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −8.73%2008-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: −6.86%2008-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.92%2008-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −10.50%2008-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: −8.54%2008-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −8.39%2008-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: −5.80%2008-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: −8.55%2008-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: −8.71%2008-07-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −11.45%2008-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +6.24%2008-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +13.56%2008-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +13.68%2008-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: +8.31%2008-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +8.74%2008-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: +2.88%2008-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −4.10%2008-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: +9.82%2008-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +14.25%2008-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +14.19%2008-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.14%2008-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +11.45%2008-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +6.81%2008-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +3.57%2008-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +8.53%2008-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −2.69%2010-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −9.57%2011-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +0.71%2011-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +1.11%2011-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +0.51%2011-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +0.27%2011-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +3.03%2011-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +0.50%2011-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: −1.30%2011-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −1.55%2011-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −1.82%2011-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −3.00%2011-03-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −0.42%2011-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −0.67%2012-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −2.82%2012-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: −3.19%2012-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: −3.21%2012-02-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −3.69%2012-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: −4.54%2012-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −3.64%2012-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: −3.25%2012-03-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −5.10%2012-06-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −8.28%2012-06-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −10.78%2012-06-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −9.30%2012-06-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −10.91%2012-06-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −8.92%2013-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −8.40%2013-04-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −6.42%2013-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −8.28%2013-04-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −9.56%2013-04-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −8.80%2013-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −8.54%2013-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −7.20%2013-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −6.59%2014-06-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +3.49%2014-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +2.58%2014-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +2.41%2014-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +2.90%2014-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: +2.29%2014-06-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 63d: +2.72%2014-06-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +2.43%2014-06-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +1.67%2014-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +1.70%2014-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −5.40%2014-08-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −4.19%2014-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −4.33%2014-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −3.49%2014-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −3.01%2014-08-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −3.33%2014-09-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −2.57%2014-09-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −3.26%2014-09-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −3.69%2014-09-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −3.66%2014-09-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −3.20%2014-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −1.43%2014-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: −2.54%2014-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: −0.96%2014-09-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: +0.48%2014-09-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: +1.42%2014-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: +0.01%2014-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −3.03%2014-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −3.70%2014-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −4.78%2014-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −4.10%2014-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −5.82%2014-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −5.33%2014-09-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −5.37%2014-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −5.76%2014-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −5.68%2014-10-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −2.65%2014-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −1.80%2014-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: −4.68%2014-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −4.71%2014-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: −5.97%2014-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −6.36%2014-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: −7.83%2014-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.97) · SPY 63d: −7.01%2014-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.01) · SPY 63d: −6.75%2014-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.70) · SPY 63d: −8.25%2014-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.54) · SPY 63d: −7.21%2014-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: −6.72%2014-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −6.20%2014-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −6.37%2014-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −5.40%2014-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −3.21%2014-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −2.03%2014-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −1.80%2014-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −1.14%2014-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −2.51%2014-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −1.59%2014-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −0.73%2014-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2014-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −2.32%2014-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2014-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −2.90%2014-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −2.88%2014-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −2.74%2014-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −2.77%2014-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −2.92%2014-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −1.89%2014-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −2.17%2014-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −1.63%2014-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +0.19%2014-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −0.34%2014-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +1.45%2014-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: +1.02%2014-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −0.30%2014-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −1.31%2014-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −2.15%2014-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −3.52%2014-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −5.49%2014-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: −5.86%2014-12-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: −4.27%2014-12-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −1.56%2014-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −1.11%2014-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +0.82%2014-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +1.10%2015-01-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −2.76%2015-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −4.08%2015-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −3.26%2015-01-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −2.01%2015-01-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −2.37%2015-01-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −3.38%2015-01-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −4.13%2015-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −10.45%2015-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −11.64%2015-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −7.66%2017-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +9.50%2017-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +6.98%2017-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +4.13%2017-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +3.41%2017-11-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: −0.40%2017-11-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +0.92%2017-11-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +2.78%2017-11-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +3.06%2017-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +4.36%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −14.24%2018-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −13.48%2018-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −5.83%2018-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.47) · SPY 63d: −6.06%2018-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −4.18%2018-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −4.48%2018-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −1.75%2018-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −1.84%2018-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: −0.61%2018-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +1.54%2018-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −3.19%2018-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −6.54%2018-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −6.45%2018-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −5.97%2018-12-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −10.26%2018-12-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −11.62%2018-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −11.14%2018-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −12.89%2018-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −16.79%2018-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.62) · SPY 63d: −19.34%2018-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −14.03%2018-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: −13.87%2018-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −15.37%2018-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −14.42%2019-01-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −14.49%2020-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +12.51%2020-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: +13.03%2020-02-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +11.97%2020-02-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: +12.60%2020-02-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +14.49%2020-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +2.56%2020-02-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −1.84%2020-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −2.72%2020-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: +1.15%2020-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −2.61%2020-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: +0.22%2020-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −2.94%2020-03-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.23) · SPY 63d: −7.36%2020-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.71) · SPY 63d: −17.86%2020-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.34) · SPY 63d: −11.22%2020-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.24) · SPY 63d: −16.27%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.35) · SPY 63d: −21.16%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.83) · SPY 63d: −12.96%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.17) · SPY 63d: −28.02%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.01) · SPY 63d: −23.80%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.25) · SPY 63d: −29.86%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.37) · SPY 63d: −29.63%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.33) · SPY 63d: −34.89%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.09) · SPY 63d: −39.32%2020-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 63d: −28.34%2020-03-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.67) · SPY 63d: −23.22%2020-03-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 63d: −17.67%2020-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 63d: −18.40%2020-03-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.73) · SPY 63d: −16.36%2020-03-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.58) · SPY 63d: −19.63%2020-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −26.15%2020-04-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −23.98%2020-04-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −19.03%2020-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −17.11%2020-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −15.72%2020-04-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −13.40%2020-04-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −12.60%2021-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +8.88%2021-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +8.51%2021-02-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +8.88%2021-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +7.02%2021-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +6.14%2021-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +3.93%2021-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.01%2021-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +6.10%2021-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +5.92%2021-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +4.98%2021-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +5.16%2021-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +6.47%2021-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +7.21%2021-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +8.17%2021-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +6.76%2021-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +9.61%2021-02-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +10.23%2021-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +11.17%2021-03-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +10.16%2021-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +10.60%2021-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +9.07%2021-03-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +8.23%2021-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +7.64%2021-03-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +7.68%2021-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +7.09%2021-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +4.23%2021-10-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +0.25%2021-10-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −1.25%2021-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −2.93%2021-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −4.63%2021-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −4.95%2022-01-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.88%2022-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: −8.33%2022-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −10.98%2022-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −8.79%2022-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: −8.87%2022-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −12.26%2022-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: −7.60%2022-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −6.65%2022-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: −7.22%2022-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −7.41%2022-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: −4.89%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: −3.96%2022-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.34) · SPY 63d: −6.46%2022-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.80) · SPY 63d: −4.21%2022-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.55) · SPY 63d: −5.00%2022-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.86) · SPY 63d: −1.82%2022-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=5.05) · SPY 63d: −0.12%2022-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: −3.79%2022-03-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −5.65%2022-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −7.21%2022-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: −15.60%2022-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: −16.73%2022-03-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: −14.81%2022-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: −13.41%2022-03-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −14.16%2023-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.47%2023-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +6.46%2023-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +5.79%2023-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +6.61%2023-09-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +11.84%2024-09-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −9.61%2024-09-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −10.56%2024-09-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −12.27%2024-09-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −11.24%2024-09-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 63d: −10.18%2024-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −8.73%2024-09-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −7.53%2025-04-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −22.77%2025-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: −23.73%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.59) · SPY 63d: −26.05%2025-04-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −13.67%2025-04-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: −19.11%2025-04-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −16.52%2025-04-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −15.78%2025-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −16.82%2025-04-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −13.98%2025-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −11.33%2025-05-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −11.37%2025-05-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: −11.44%2025-05-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −13.24%2025-05-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −12.67%2008-05-072015-08-262025-05-07
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.