VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comSUN · JUL 19 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardsentimentSP-4963

CNN Fear & Greed Index (equities)

CNN's traditional-markets fear & greed composite, daily.

the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 73% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +3.12%. Status: OOS validated. n = 192. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
UVXYVXX

Current state

Latest value · 2026-06-08
40.1
vs ~6 weeks ago
39%
vs 60 days ago
88%
vs 7 days ago
33%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-30 2026-06-08

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

CNN Fear & Greed Index (equities)
40.11 -23.31 (-36.76%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
80.5360.9641.4021.842.27Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
2025-06-09 → 2026-06-08 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged +3.1% over the next trading quarter, moving in the same direction as the signal 73% of the time.

54%
−0.04%
1 d
61%
−0.26%
1 wk
65%
+0.77%
1 mo
73%
+3.1%
3 mo
67%
+3.8%
6 mo
50%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=192
-0.04%
46% same direction
-0.26%
39% same direction
+0.77%
65% same direction
+3.1%
73% same direction
+3.8%
67% same direction
50% same direction
WTI
crude oil
n=212
-0.01%
53% same direction
-0.27%
54% same direction
-4.1%
43% same direction
-10.6%
21% same direction
-16.0%
22% same direction
50% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreGold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
17 fires · 0% positive · avg 3.98%
−9.3%−4.7%0%+4.7%+9.3%2025-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.35) · SPY 63d: −9.35%2025-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.10) · SPY 63d: −6.45%2025-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.67) · SPY 63d: −4.63%2025-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 63d: −4.25%2025-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −4.07%2025-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: −4.70%2025-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −1.98%2025-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.29) · SPY 63d: −2.10%2025-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.29) · SPY 63d: −2.63%2025-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.37) · SPY 63d: −3.21%2025-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.14) · SPY 63d: −3.12%2025-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.21) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2025-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.21) · SPY 63d: −2.83%2025-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.26) · SPY 63d: −4.45%2025-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.19) · SPY 63d: −2.98%2025-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.23) · SPY 63d: −5.34%2025-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 63d: −5.18%2025-08-012025-10-212025-11-21
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.

Related ticker news · UVXY, VXXlive

Live from Alpaca / Benzinga. This indicator is editorially mapped to these tickers — open any UVXY · VXX for the full feed.
No recent headlines for UVXY, VXX in the last 7 days.
Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on this signal. Analyst unlocks the full multi-year track record + bootstrap confidence intervals + an alert when this indicator fires. Trader adds the walk-forward backtest + intraday refresh + the API / MCP to pull this signal into Claude.Compare tiers →