sentimentSP-0124

CNN Fear & Greed

Composite sentiment index from CNN Money.

the verdict —

At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 58% of fires. Status: OOS validated. n = 1820. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value

—

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires, SPY has historically moved in the same direction as the signal 74% of the time over the next trading week.

↑61%

1 d

↑74%

1 wk

↑58%

1 mo

↑52%

3 mo

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=1,820

—

61% same direction

—

74% same direction

—

58% same direction

—

52% same direction

—

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.