VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardtechnicalSP-4741

BTC Bollinger position ( from 20d MA)

BTC from 20d MA. 2 = band touch (crypto mean-reversion test).

Sectors:Crypto & Digital Assets
the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 54% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.44%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2904. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26
-1.07
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 188%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 2.6%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 56%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-21 → 2026-05-26

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

BTC Bollinger position ( from 20d MA)
-1.07▼ -3.26 (-148.96%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
3.131.610.0908-1.43-2.95Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-12 → 2026-05-26 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

51%
+0.03%
1 d
51%
+0.12%
1 wk
↑54%
+0.44%
1 mo
↑54%
+0.47%
3 mo
↑53%
+1.1%
6 mo
↑54%
+1.7%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=2,904
+0.03%
51% same direction
+0.12%
51% same direction
+0.44%
54% same direction
+0.47%
54% same direction
+1.1%
53% same direction
+1.7%
54% same direction
Copper
futures
n=2,794
+0.04%
51% same direction
+0.07%
50% same direction
+0.03%
49% same direction
+0.77%
52% same direction
+2.1%
57% same direction
+2.4%
54% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
39 fires · 51% positive · avg +0.69%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2025-08-01 (300 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−7.8%−3.9%0%+3.9%+7.8%2015-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: −2.62%2015-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +0.97%2015-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: +4.88%2016-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 21d: −2.70%2016-05-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.79%2016-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 21d: −0.49%2016-08-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 21d: −0.85%2017-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 21d: +1.33%2017-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: −2.00%2017-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: −0.40%2017-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 21d: −1.94%2018-01-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: +2.67%2018-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +0.47%2018-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 21d: +5.49%2019-04-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 21d: +1.82%2019-07-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 21d: +5.30%2019-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −0.27%2019-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.51) · SPY 21d: −1.35%2019-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: −0.92%2020-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +2.85%2020-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +3.49%2020-07-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +6.47%2020-09-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 21d: +1.63%2021-04-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: +0.79%2021-04-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: +0.19%2021-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 21d: −0.65%2021-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 21d: −0.58%2022-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 21d: +5.32%2022-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 21d: −5.12%2023-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: +4.00%2023-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 21d: −1.68%2023-10-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +7.80%2024-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 21d: −3.74%2024-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −5.62%2024-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 21d: −5.40%2025-02-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 21d: +3.64%2025-02-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 21d: +4.32%2025-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 21d: +4.62%2025-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −2.98%2015-03-022020-01-062025-08-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.