VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardtechnicalSP-4519

BTC MACD histogram

BTC MACD histogram (line minus signal). Sign-flips = trigger.

Sectors:Crypto & Digital Assets
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 54% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.33%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2868. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26
-473.9
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 235%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 229%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 5.8%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-21 → 2026-05-26

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

BTC MACD histogram
-473.9▼ -1,274 (-159.23%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
1,431472.2-486.4-1,445-2,404Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-12 → 2026-05-26 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.01%
1 d
↓53%
−0.08%
1 wk
↑53%
+0.36%
1 mo
↑54%
+0.33%
3 mo
↑53%
+0.98%
6 mo
↓53%
−0.66%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=2,868
-0.01%
49% same direction
-0.08%
47% same direction
+0.36%
53% same direction
+0.33%
54% same direction
+0.98%
53% same direction
-0.66%
47% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=4,006
+0.15%
50% same direction
+0.64%
51% same direction
+1.8%
55% same direction
+4.2%
53% same direction
+7.3%
53% same direction
+25.9%
57% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
161 fires · 62% positive · avg +0.52%
−28.0%−14.0%0%+14.0%+28.0%2015-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +1.37%2015-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −8.55%2015-11-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: −9.07%2015-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.72) · SPY 63d: −9.19%2015-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=5.37) · SPY 63d: −10.65%2015-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.44) · SPY 63d: −11.77%2015-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 63d: −11.72%2015-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: +7.35%2015-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 63d: +4.77%2015-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: +6.58%2015-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: +6.56%2016-05-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +4.06%2016-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +3.68%2016-06-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +3.07%2016-06-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +3.38%2016-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +3.32%2016-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +3.79%2016-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +2.50%2016-06-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +2.60%2016-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.75) · SPY 63d: +3.32%2016-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.55) · SPY 63d: +3.32%2016-06-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −3.02%2016-06-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −6.27%2016-06-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 63d: −7.33%2016-06-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −6.09%2016-06-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −4.83%2016-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +4.26%2016-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +4.10%2016-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +5.30%2016-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.55) · SPY 63d: +5.08%2016-12-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +5.28%2017-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.55%2017-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.03) · SPY 63d: +3.62%2017-01-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.78) · SPY 63d: −3.92%2017-01-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 63d: −3.80%2017-01-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.50) · SPY 63d: −3.05%2017-01-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.57) · SPY 63d: −2.64%2017-01-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.99) · SPY 63d: −3.31%2017-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: −3.33%2017-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −3.97%2017-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −3.96%2017-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2017-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +3.27%2017-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +3.08%2017-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +1.83%2017-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: +1.64%2017-05-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +0.92%2017-06-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.60) · SPY 63d: −2.59%2017-06-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 63d: −2.70%2017-06-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: −2.07%2017-07-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +4.17%2017-08-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +4.69%2017-08-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.88) · SPY 63d: +4.69%2017-08-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.51) · SPY 63d: +4.79%2017-08-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +4.37%2017-08-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +5.49%2017-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −6.54%2017-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −6.50%2017-09-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −6.64%2017-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.11) · SPY 63d: −6.66%2017-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.75) · SPY 63d: −6.61%2017-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +8.64%2017-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −4.36%2017-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +1.84%2017-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +2.43%2017-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +2.71%2017-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: +3.18%2017-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +3.27%2017-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +4.15%2017-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.48) · SPY 63d: +5.94%2017-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=7.77) · SPY 63d: +5.47%2017-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=7.20) · SPY 63d: +4.22%2017-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.81) · SPY 63d: +3.38%2017-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.53) · SPY 63d: +3.08%2017-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +0.92%2017-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.36) · SPY 63d: +2.58%2017-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.79) · SPY 63d: +2.76%2017-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 63d: +1.56%2017-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +3.88%2017-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: +2.28%2019-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +2.57%2019-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: +3.23%2019-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.51) · SPY 63d: −0.41%2019-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: −1.06%2019-06-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −3.64%2019-06-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 63d: −3.92%2019-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.58) · SPY 63d: −4.57%2019-06-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: −3.62%2019-06-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −3.19%2019-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.26) · SPY 63d: +1.56%2019-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.79) · SPY 63d: +1.76%2019-06-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.88) · SPY 63d: +2.46%2019-06-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: +1.89%2019-06-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 63d: +0.82%2019-07-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: +1.49%2019-07-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.82) · SPY 63d: +1.28%2019-07-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.02) · SPY 63d: −0.38%2019-07-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: +0.14%2019-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −0.71%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −21.16%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 63d: −12.96%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: −28.02%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −23.80%2020-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −8.08%2020-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 63d: +5.50%2020-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +5.34%2020-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +6.12%2020-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +6.06%2020-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +6.69%2020-12-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +7.69%2020-12-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +8.69%2021-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 63d: +10.12%2021-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.51) · SPY 63d: +9.50%2021-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.28) · SPY 63d: +9.36%2021-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=5.16) · SPY 63d: +8.54%2021-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=5.51) · SPY 63d: +7.97%2021-01-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −8.85%2021-01-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.24) · SPY 63d: −8.38%2021-01-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.52) · SPY 63d: −7.29%2021-01-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.44) · SPY 63d: −8.84%2021-01-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 63d: −8.64%2021-01-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 63d: −8.79%2021-01-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 63d: −11.48%2021-01-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −11.24%2021-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +7.02%2021-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.26) · SPY 63d: +6.14%2021-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +3.93%2021-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.26) · SPY 63d: +5.01%2021-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +6.10%2021-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −10.23%2021-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −7.82%2021-05-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −6.89%2023-03-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +12.68%2023-03-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: +11.03%2023-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +9.03%2023-10-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +15.44%2023-10-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 63d: +15.20%2023-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.87) · SPY 63d: +16.73%2023-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.65) · SPY 63d: +19.08%2023-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: +19.53%2024-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +3.98%2024-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +5.91%2024-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: +6.26%2024-02-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: +5.32%2024-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2024-02-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +2.86%2024-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +2.83%2024-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 63d: +3.03%2024-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −6.68%2024-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 63d: −6.36%2024-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: −5.10%2024-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 63d: −4.27%2024-03-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −4.13%2024-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +1.83%2024-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +2.14%2024-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: +2.40%2024-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +3.30%2024-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +4.21%2025-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −1.98%2026-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: −7.96%2026-02-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −6.80%2015-08-192019-05-132026-02-06
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.