StandardmacroSP-5218

Business Loan Delinquency Rate

Delinquency rate on business loans at commercial banks (Fed, quarterly). Corporate-credit stress gauge.

the verdict —

Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: pending.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-01-01

1.34

vs ~6 weeks ago

↑ 35%

vs 60 days ago

↓ 45%

vs 7 days ago

↑ 18%

last 90 observations · 2003-10-01 → 2026-01-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Business Loan Delinquency Rate

1.34▼ -5.41 (-80.15%) over 1Y

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move

1987-01-01 → 2026-01-01  ·  157 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%

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1 d

50%

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1 wk

50%

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1 mo

50%

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3 mo

50%

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6 mo

50%

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1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=0

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.

Signal grade

TOO NEW0/10

Too new to retest — not yet enough fresh data.

0 historical observations

How this works

A "fire day" means the indicator's value moved at least 2.5 standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months) — a meaningful jump in either direction. We then check what SPY (and the other assets) did over the next 1, 5, 21, 63, 126, and 252 trading days. The hit rate asks: did the market move the same direction as the signal more often than a coin flip would predict?

We picked 60 days by sweeping {14, 30, 60, 90} and measuring signal quality — see methodology for the data.

full methodology →

More in macro

Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on this signal. Analyst unlocks the full multi-year track record + bootstrap confidence intervals + an alert when this indicator fires. Trader adds the walk-forward backtest + intraday refresh + the API / MCP to pull this signal into Claude.Compare tiers →