VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardmacroSP-4440

Case-Shiller Boston Home Price Index (monthly)

Boston metro home prices.

Sectors:Construction & HomesRegional Metros
the verdict —
At the 1d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 58% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.06%. Status: OOS validated. n = 139. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
XHBITB

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-02-01
350.5
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 10%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 35%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 0.8%
last 90 observations · 2018-09-01 → 2026-02-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Case-Shiller Boston Home Price Index (monthly)
350.5▲ +171.1 (+95.31%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
359.5304.8250.1195.4140.720052010201520202026
2005-03-01 → 2026-02-01 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires, SPY has historically moved in the same direction as the signal 58% of the time over the next trading day.

↑58%
+0.06%
1 d
↑57%
+0.24%
1 wk
↓53%
−0.08%
1 mo
51%
+0.63%
3 mo
↑54%
+0.65%
6 mo
↓54%
+1.4%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=139
+0.06%
58% same direction
+0.24%
57% same direction
-0.08%
47% same direction
+0.63%
51% same direction
+0.65%
54% same direction
+1.4%
46% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=137
+0.80%
64% same direction
-0.99%
44% same direction
-1.8%
45% same direction
-8.9%
46% same direction
-24.4%
41% same direction
-64.2%
44% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
61 fires · 59% positive · avg +0.06%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2022-09-01 (1365 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−3.0%−1.5%0%+1.5%+3.0%2000-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.32) · SPY 1d: +0.09%2000-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 1d: +0.07%2000-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 1d: −2.00%2000-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 1d: +1.74%2000-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 1d: +0.50%2000-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 1d: −0.80%2000-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.47) · SPY 1d: +0.17%2000-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.52) · SPY 1d: +0.85%2001-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.53) · SPY 1d: −2.27%2001-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.49) · SPY 1d: −0.80%2001-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 1d: −0.18%2001-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 1d: +0.48%2001-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 1d: +0.41%2001-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 1d: +1.26%2001-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 1d: +0.68%2002-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 1d: −2.49%2002-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: +1.77%2002-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: −0.55%2002-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 1d: −0.39%2002-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 1d: −2.12%2002-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 1d: −2.24%2002-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 1d: −3.00%2002-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 1d: +0.95%2003-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 1d: +2.42%2003-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 1d: +1.43%2003-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 1d: +1.26%2003-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 1d: +0.00%2003-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 1d: +0.36%2003-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 1d: −0.25%2004-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2017-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 1d: −0.63%2017-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 1d: +0.05%2017-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 1d: −0.72%2017-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 1d: +0.04%2017-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 1d: −0.12%2018-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 1d: −2.18%2018-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 1d: +0.52%2018-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 1d: −0.67%2018-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 1d: +0.47%2018-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 1d: +0.55%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 1d: −0.06%2018-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 1d: −0.59%2020-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 1d: +1.45%2020-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 1d: −0.95%2020-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 1d: +0.21%2021-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 1d: +1.41%2021-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 1d: −0.78%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: +1.44%2021-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: +0.16%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2021-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 1d: +0.31%2021-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 1d: −1.29%2021-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 1d: +0.40%2021-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: +1.53%2022-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 1d: +0.97%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 1d: +1.84%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 1d: +0.86%2022-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 1d: +1.90%2022-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 1d: +0.19%2022-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 1d: −0.66%2022-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 1d: −1.05%2000-02-012017-03-012022-09-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.