VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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StandardmacroSP-4418

Case-Shiller Dallas Home Price Index (monthly)

Dallas metro home prices Texas-migration thermometer.

Sectors:Construction & HomesRegional Metros
the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 48% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.02%. Status: OOS validated. n = 200. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
XHBITB

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-02-01
294.2
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 0.6%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 35%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 0.5%
last 90 observations · 2018-09-01 → 2026-02-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Case-Shiller Dallas Home Price Index (monthly)
294.2▲ +175.3 (+147.35%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
309.9259.0208.0157.1106.120052010201520202026
2005-03-01 → 2026-02-01 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
+0.02%
1 d
↑52%
+0.11%
1 wk
↓52%
−0.02%
1 mo
↑52%
+0.78%
3 mo
51%
+1.2%
6 mo
49%
+2.2%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=200
+0.02%
49% same direction
+0.11%
52% same direction
-0.02%
48% same direction
+0.78%
52% same direction
+1.2%
51% same direction
+2.2%
49% same direction
VNQ
REIT ETF
n=162
-0.01%
51% same direction
+0.06%
48% same direction
-0.50%
46% same direction
-0.70%
46% same direction
-1.8%
42% same direction
-3.6%
36% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
46 fires · 70% positive · avg +0.91%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2022-09-01 (1365 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−8.2%−4.1%0%+4.1%+8.2%2005-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.42) · SPY 21d: +5.15%2005-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +0.01%2006-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +0.29%2006-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.42) · SPY 21d: +0.33%2006-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.09) · SPY 21d: −2.22%2006-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.04) · SPY 21d: −1.13%2006-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.00) · SPY 21d: +2.70%2013-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.19) · SPY 21d: +2.02%2013-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.48) · SPY 21d: +3.10%2013-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: +2.33%2013-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: +3.27%2013-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 21d: +4.55%2013-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 21d: −4.11%2013-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 21d: +4.10%2013-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 21d: +2.01%2014-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +0.04%2014-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +2.43%2014-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.45) · SPY 21d: −2.00%2014-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.43) · SPY 21d: +4.21%2014-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.40) · SPY 21d: +2.59%2014-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.32) · SPY 21d: −0.11%2015-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.23) · SPY 21d: +2.44%2015-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.15) · SPY 21d: +0.30%2015-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.10) · SPY 21d: −2.70%2015-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.12) · SPY 21d: +1.45%2015-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.11) · SPY 21d: +0.19%2015-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.10) · SPY 21d: +8.22%2015-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.06) · SPY 21d: −3.23%2016-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.01) · SPY 21d: +2.76%2020-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.28) · SPY 21d: +2.15%2021-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +1.38%2021-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +1.32%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: +4.39%2021-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 21d: +2.00%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 21d: +1.66%2021-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 21d: −3.89%2021-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 21d: +5.94%2021-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 21d: −2.07%2021-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: +5.43%2022-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: −3.81%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 21d: +6.68%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 21d: −8.07%2022-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: −6.92%2022-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: +7.03%2022-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.33) · SPY 21d: −3.06%2022-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.09) · SPY 21d: −7.52%2005-11-012015-06-012022-09-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.