VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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StandardmacroSP-4603

Case-Shiller Seattle Home Price Index (monthly)

Seattle metro home prices tech-sector wage proxy.

Sectors:Construction & HomesRegional Metros
the verdict —
At the 1d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 55% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.09%. Status: OOS validated. n = 116. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
XHBITB

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-02-01
390.8
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 4.9%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 28%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 0.3%
last 90 observations · 2018-09-01 → 2026-02-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Case-Shiller Seattle Home Price Index (monthly)
390.8▲ +245.5 (+168.93%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
412.9340.1267.3194.5121.720052010201520202026
2005-03-01 → 2026-02-01 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires, SPY has historically moved in the same direction as the signal 55% of the time over the next trading day.

↑55%
+0.09%
1 d
↑55%
+0.05%
1 wk
↓53%
−0.06%
1 mo
52%
+0.71%
3 mo
49%
+0.91%
6 mo
↓53%
+1.6%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=116
+0.09%
55% same direction
+0.05%
55% same direction
-0.06%
47% same direction
+0.71%
52% same direction
+0.91%
49% same direction
+1.6%
47% same direction
Gold
futures
n=115
-0.18%
45% same direction
-0.36%
45% same direction
-0.08%
48% same direction
+1.4%
61% same direction
+3.8%
70% same direction
+9.3%
66% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
48 fires · 73% positive · avg +0.24%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2022-07-01 (1427 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−2.2%−1.1%0%+1.1%+2.2%2000-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 1d: +0.09%2000-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 1d: +0.07%2000-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 1d: −2.00%2000-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 1d: +1.74%2005-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 1d: +0.17%2005-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 1d: +0.22%2005-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 1d: +0.80%2005-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 1d: +0.60%2005-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 1d: −0.18%2005-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 1d: +1.05%2005-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 1d: +0.13%2006-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 1d: −1.16%2006-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 1d: −0.01%2006-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 1d: +0.75%2006-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 1d: +0.21%2006-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 1d: +0.68%2006-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 1d: +0.19%2006-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 1d: −0.06%2006-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2007-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 1d: +0.14%2007-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 1d: −1.31%2007-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 1d: +0.58%2017-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 1d: +0.33%2017-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 1d: +0.05%2017-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 1d: −0.72%2017-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 1d: +0.04%2017-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 1d: −0.12%2018-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 1d: −2.18%2018-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 1d: +0.52%2018-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 1d: −0.67%2018-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 1d: +0.47%2018-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 1d: +0.55%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 1d: −0.06%2020-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 1d: +0.21%2021-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 1d: +1.41%2021-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 1d: −0.78%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 1d: +1.44%2021-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 1d: +0.16%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2021-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 1d: +0.31%2021-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 1d: −1.29%2021-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 1d: +0.40%2021-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.11) · SPY 1d: +1.53%2022-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 1d: +0.97%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 1d: +1.84%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.26) · SPY 1d: +0.86%2022-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 1d: +1.90%2022-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 1d: +0.19%2000-02-012017-09-012022-07-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.