VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardmacroSP-4861

Cass Freight Shipments Index (monthly)

Monthly index of US domestic freight shipments compiled by Cass. Truck-heavy. Historically a 3-6mo leading indicator for GDP and industrial production.

Sectors:Autos & Transport
the verdict —
Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. The OOS-validated status is from a prior pass; with no new fires it can't be re-confirmed.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-04-01
1.01
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 8.8%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 14%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 3.0%
last 90 observations · 2018-11-01 → 2026-04-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Cass Freight Shipments Index (monthly)
1.01▲ +0.0370 (+3.80%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
1.321.211.100.98280.869220162018202120232026
2016-01-01 → 2026-04-01 · 124 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
—
1 d
50%
—
1 wk
50%
—
1 mo
50%
—
3 mo
50%
—
6 mo
50%
—
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=0
—
50% same direction
—
50% same direction
—
50% same direction
—
50% same direction
—
50% same direction
—
50% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=117
+0.20%
49% same direction
+0.29%
44% same direction
+0.32%
41% same direction
+0.36%
43% same direction
-2.6%
38% same direction
-42.3%
36% same direction

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
4 fires · 0% positive · avg −0.90%
−2.3%−1.2%0%+1.2%+2.3%2020-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 1d: −2.31%2020-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 1d: −0.28%2020-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.09) · SPY 1d: −0.83%2025-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 1d: −0.18%2020-04-012020-06-012025-12-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.