VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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PoorlychaosSP-1770

Multi-arrest celebrity arrest day

1 on a known public-record arrest date for a celebrity with multiple arrests (Lohan / Bieber / Sheen / Downey / Gibson).

Sectors:Chaos & Folklore
the verdict —
At the 252d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 25% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -7.69%. Status: not significant. n = 6384. Bearish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26
0.00
Binary calendar indicator — value is 1 on event days, 0 every other day. A time-series sparkline isn't meaningful here (it's mostly zeros). The hit-rate / magnitude stats below are computed against the event days themselves; see the COMING UP strip on the home page for upcoming instances.

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Multi-arrest celebrity arrest day
0.0000
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
0.04000.02000.0000-0.0200-0.0400Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26May 26
2025-06-11 → 2026-05-28 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged -7.7% over the next year, moving in the opposite direction 75% of the time.

↓54%
−0.03%
1 d
↓58%
−0.16%
1 wk
↓63%
−0.63%
1 mo
↓67%
−1.8%
3 mo
↓70%
−3.7%
6 mo
↓75%
−7.7%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,384
-0.03%
46% same direction
-0.16%
42% same direction
-0.63%
37% same direction
-1.8%
33% same direction
-3.7%
30% same direction
-7.7%
25% same direction
Gold
futures
n=6,206
-0.05%
47% same direction
-0.25%
44% same direction
-1.0%
43% same direction
-3.2%
36% same direction
-6.5%
29% same direction
-13.1%
25% same direction
Analyst · 5 moreWTI · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.