StandardmacroSP-5421
China Industrial Production (YoY, monthly)
Monthly YoY growth in China industrial production. Heavily seasonally adjusted; the cleaner read is the 3-month moving average versus history.
the verdict —
Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: pending.
What to watch when it fires
— Current state —
Latest value
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Binary calendar indicator — value is 1 on event days, 0 every other day. A time-series sparkline isn't meaningful here (it's mostly zeros). The hit-rate / magnitude stats below are computed against the event days themselves; see the COMING UP strip on the home page for upcoming instances.
— What it has historically predicted —
Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.
50%
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50%
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50%
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50%
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50%
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50%
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— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —
Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).
target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=0
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.