VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardequitiesSP-3091

COPX Copper Miners ETF

Copper miners (FCX, BHP, Antofagasta). Operating leverage vs spot copper.

Sectors:Energy & CommoditiesMetals & Mining
the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 51% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.05%. Status: OOS validated. n = 4019. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
FCX

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-22
83.3
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 0.2%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 12%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 9.3%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 → 2026-05-22

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

COPX Copper Miners ETF
86.09▲ +44.66 (+107.80%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
97.8983.1168.3453.5738.79May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-27 → 2026-05-27 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
+0.01%
1 d
49%
−0.08%
1 wk
51%
+0.05%
1 mo
51%
−0.05%
3 mo
51%
+0.09%
6 mo
49%
−0.01%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=4,019
+0.01%
50% same direction
-0.08%
49% same direction
+0.05%
51% same direction
-0.05%
51% same direction
+0.09%
51% same direction
-0.01%
49% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=4,022
+0.22%
51% same direction
+1.0%
53% same direction
+2.9%
54% same direction
+2.7%
51% same direction
+3.2%
52% same direction
+3.2%
52% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
257 fires · 51% positive · avg −1.56%
−25.2%−12.6%0%+12.6%+25.2%2010-10-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +3.37%2010-10-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 21d: +5.37%2010-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +5.11%2010-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +4.25%2010-10-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +4.35%2010-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +3.16%2010-10-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +2.33%2010-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +1.98%2010-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +0.09%2011-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: +2.00%2011-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 21d: +2.57%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.59) · SPY 21d: −7.15%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.24) · SPY 21d: −1.33%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.76) · SPY 21d: −3.23%2011-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: +0.56%2011-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: +0.32%2011-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: −1.54%2011-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.12) · SPY 21d: −5.07%2011-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.43) · SPY 21d: −6.69%2011-08-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 21d: −3.46%2011-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: +3.08%2011-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 21d: +3.84%2011-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: +0.03%2011-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −2.60%2011-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −1.89%2011-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 21d: −0.80%2011-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 21d: −4.31%2011-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.12) · SPY 21d: −9.84%2011-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.90) · SPY 21d: −10.53%2011-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.69) · SPY 21d: −5.86%2011-09-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 21d: −5.75%2011-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.44) · SPY 21d: −11.72%2011-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 21d: −10.81%2011-09-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 21d: −10.91%2011-10-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 21d: −10.98%2011-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 21d: −10.37%2011-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 21d: −10.34%2011-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −7.72%2011-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: −9.12%2012-05-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 21d: −0.10%2012-05-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 21d: −2.71%2012-05-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −4.59%2012-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 21d: −6.51%2013-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 21d: −6.52%2013-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 21d: −6.59%2013-04-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 21d: −8.30%2013-04-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −7.36%2013-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 21d: −7.04%2013-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 21d: −5.17%2013-06-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −7.30%2013-06-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −6.53%2013-06-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −5.60%2014-07-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 21d: −2.40%2014-07-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 21d: −2.17%2014-07-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 21d: −2.79%2014-07-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 21d: −2.13%2014-07-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 21d: −3.09%2014-07-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 21d: −1.58%2014-07-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 21d: −1.43%2014-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: −2.06%2014-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −1.21%2014-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −1.11%2014-07-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: +0.36%2014-07-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +0.43%2014-07-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +0.27%2014-07-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +1.25%2014-07-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +1.28%2014-07-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +1.68%2014-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 21d: +0.25%2014-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −1.88%2015-01-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 21d: −4.44%2015-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: −5.57%2015-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: +9.44%2015-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: +4.88%2015-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: +6.18%2015-08-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: +3.68%2015-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: +1.98%2015-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 21d: −2.16%2015-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 21d: −3.01%2015-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: +0.83%2015-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 21d: −9.89%2016-11-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: +4.68%2016-11-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.82) · SPY 21d: +4.30%2016-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 21d: +5.24%2016-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 21d: +4.29%2016-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 21d: +3.91%2016-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: +3.29%2016-11-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +2.99%2016-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +3.62%2016-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +2.55%2016-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.42) · SPY 21d: +2.18%2016-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.59) · SPY 21d: +2.27%2016-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 21d: +2.14%2016-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.54) · SPY 21d: +1.78%2016-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +1.56%2016-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 21d: +1.43%2016-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: +2.58%2016-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: +3.14%2016-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 21d: +2.44%2016-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 21d: +2.48%2016-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.30) · SPY 21d: +0.83%2016-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.32) · SPY 21d: +0.58%2016-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 21d: +0.26%2016-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +0.12%2016-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: −0.31%2017-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +3.88%2017-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: +3.12%2017-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +4.75%2017-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: +2.66%2017-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +2.04%2018-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 21d: −3.23%2018-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: −1.86%2018-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: −2.05%2018-08-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: −1.94%2019-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −5.45%2019-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: −4.18%2019-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: −3.87%2020-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.50) · SPY 21d: +3.32%2020-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: +4.99%2020-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 21d: −1.40%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.24) · SPY 21d: −11.10%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 21d: −5.37%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.58) · SPY 21d: −15.81%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.62) · SPY 21d: −10.40%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.20) · SPY 21d: −19.43%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 21d: −17.08%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.86) · SPY 21d: −19.34%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.09) · SPY 21d: −25.19%2020-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 21d: −14.78%2020-03-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: −14.66%2020-03-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −9.90%2020-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: −12.75%2020-03-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 21d: −12.06%2020-03-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 21d: −12.70%2020-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: −14.89%2020-04-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: −12.60%2020-04-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −15.31%2021-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +4.00%2021-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +3.79%2021-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: +3.01%2021-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +2.36%2021-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: −0.32%2021-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +0.66%2021-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +0.64%2021-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: +0.01%2021-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: −0.53%2022-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: −0.47%2022-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +4.15%2022-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +5.71%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: +6.68%2022-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.52) · SPY 21d: +3.14%2022-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.90) · SPY 21d: +3.95%2022-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.54) · SPY 21d: +5.70%2022-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +7.53%2022-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: +5.00%2022-03-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: +5.19%2022-03-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +0.12%2022-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 21d: +0.07%2022-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 21d: −2.56%2022-03-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 21d: −4.00%2022-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: −4.88%2022-03-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: −8.08%2022-03-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: −8.48%2022-03-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: −7.31%2022-03-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: −10.18%2022-03-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: −8.23%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: −8.07%2022-04-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: −6.07%2022-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −7.03%2022-07-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 21d: −8.51%2022-07-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 21d: −8.07%2022-07-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −7.06%2022-07-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 21d: −10.28%2022-07-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −10.87%2022-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 21d: −13.02%2022-07-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −11.36%2023-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −7.80%2023-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: −5.25%2023-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −6.49%2024-03-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: −1.24%2024-03-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −2.49%2024-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: −3.86%2024-04-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: −3.56%2024-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 21d: −2.77%2024-04-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: −0.35%2024-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 21d: −0.36%2024-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 21d: −0.30%2024-04-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.75) · SPY 21d: −0.41%2024-04-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.45) · SPY 21d: +1.18%2024-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 21d: +0.55%2024-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 21d: +1.97%2024-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 21d: +3.74%2024-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +5.21%2024-04-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +5.62%2024-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 21d: +5.99%2024-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: +7.05%2024-04-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: +6.33%2024-04-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +5.15%2024-04-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 21d: +4.24%2024-04-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 21d: +3.15%2024-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +3.50%2024-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +3.39%2024-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: +2.98%2024-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: +3.09%2024-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +3.93%2024-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: +3.66%2024-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 21d: +2.45%2024-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +3.48%2024-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 21d: +3.60%2024-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 21d: +3.20%2024-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +2.48%2025-04-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.50) · SPY 21d: −10.59%2025-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.51) · SPY 21d: −11.25%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.76) · SPY 21d: −13.81%2025-04-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 21d: −11.13%2025-08-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +3.28%2025-09-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +4.40%2025-09-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: +3.96%2025-09-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +3.09%2025-09-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +3.77%2025-09-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +3.13%2025-09-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: +3.50%2025-09-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: +2.90%2025-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: −0.70%2025-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 21d: +0.86%2025-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 21d: +0.20%2025-09-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 21d: +0.78%2025-09-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +0.22%2025-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +1.15%2025-09-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +0.67%2025-09-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +0.69%2025-09-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 21d: +1.61%2025-09-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: +2.92%2025-09-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 21d: +3.54%2025-09-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 21d: +3.52%2025-09-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 21d: +3.18%2025-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 21d: +1.70%2025-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 21d: +1.92%2025-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 21d: +2.11%2025-10-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 21d: +0.54%2025-10-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 21d: +1.26%2025-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 21d: −0.42%2025-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.30) · SPY 21d: −0.03%2025-10-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +4.35%2025-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 21d: +3.01%2025-10-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +3.19%2025-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +1.03%2025-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +1.71%2025-10-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: −1.67%2026-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: −1.25%2026-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +0.59%2026-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −0.27%2026-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: +0.06%2026-01-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −0.89%2026-01-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 21d: −1.36%2026-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: −1.10%2026-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: −1.19%2010-10-052020-03-242026-02-03
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.