VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardcalendarSP-1299

Day of month

131.0

the verdict —
At the 1d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 49% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.01%. Status: in sample. n = 6598. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26
26.0
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 86%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 767%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 73%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-21 → 2026-05-26

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Day of month
28.00▲ +17.00 (+154.55%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
32.2024.1016.007.90-0.2000Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26May 26
2025-06-11 → 2026-05-28 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.01%
1 d
50%
+0.05%
1 wk
51%
+0.03%
1 mo
50%
+0.01%
3 mo
50%
+0.07%
6 mo
50%
+0.09%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,598
-0.01%
49% same direction
+0.05%
50% same direction
+0.03%
51% same direction
+0.01%
50% same direction
+0.07%
50% same direction
+0.09%
50% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=6,603
+0.10%
51% same direction
+0.58%
53% same direction
-0.24%
51% same direction
+0.18%
49% same direction
+0.14%
50% same direction
-0.02%
49% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
57 fires · 35% positive · avg −0.23%
−3.8%−1.9%0%+1.9%+3.8%2000-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +2.00%2000-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −0.50%2001-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −1.26%2002-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.03) · SPY 1d: −1.77%2002-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: +0.55%2002-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +2.12%2003-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.14) · SPY 1d: −2.42%2003-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +0.25%2004-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −0.37%2004-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: −0.03%2005-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: −0.30%2005-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: −0.60%2005-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −1.05%2006-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.75%2006-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −0.68%2007-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +0.14%2008-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.12) · SPY 1d: −0.07%2008-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −3.85%2009-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: −0.08%2009-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: +0.38%2010-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.02) · SPY 1d: −1.21%2010-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −2.60%2010-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: −0.79%2011-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: +0.19%2011-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: +2.56%2011-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −1.63%2012-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.10%2013-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.03) · SPY 1d: −0.53%2013-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: −0.49%2013-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +0.09%2014-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.14) · SPY 1d: −0.34%2014-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.65%2015-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: +0.10%2015-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: −1.90%2016-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.02) · SPY 1d: +1.80%2016-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: +0.64%2016-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: +0.60%2017-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.04%2017-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −0.05%2018-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +0.06%2019-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.03) · SPY 1d: +0.36%2019-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: −0.05%2019-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.26%2020-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: −0.83%2020-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: −1.45%2021-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.02) · SPY 1d: −1.41%2021-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: −0.16%2021-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: −0.40%2022-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 1d: −0.97%2022-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.04) · SPY 1d: +0.66%2022-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: +2.51%2023-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: +1.12%2023-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.10) · SPY 1d: +1.39%2024-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.06) · SPY 1d: +0.64%2024-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.67%2025-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.14) · SPY 1d: −0.63%2025-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.11) · SPY 1d: −0.18%2000-05-012013-04-012025-12-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 30-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.