StandardfilingsSP-3902

8-K Restatement Disclosures (S&P 500)

Daily count of S&P 500 8-Ks disclosing item 4.02 (non-reliance on previously issued financials — accounting restatement). A strong standalone red flag.

the verdict —

At the 252d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 15% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -13.82%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2364. Bearish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-06-01

0.00

Binary calendar indicator — value is 1 on event days, 0 every other day. A time-series sparkline isn't meaningful here (it's mostly zeros). The hit-rate / magnitude stats below are computed against the event days themselves; see the COMING UP strip on the home page for upcoming instances.

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

8-K Restatement Disclosures (S&P 500)

0.0000

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move

2025-06-13 → 2026-06-01  ·  252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged -13.8% over the next year, moving in the opposite direction 85% of the time.

↓55%

−0.06%

1 d

↓61%

−0.28%

1 wk

↓73%

−1.6%

1 mo

↓79%

−4.7%

3 mo

↓80%

−6.8%

6 mo

↓85%

−13.8%

1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=2,364

-0.06%

45% same direction

-0.28%

39% same direction

-1.6%

27% same direction

-4.7%

21% same direction

-6.8%

20% same direction

-13.8%

15% same direction

Gold

futures

n=427

-0.10%

45% same direction

-0.45%

41% same direction

-1.2%

42% same direction

-3.8%

26% same direction

-10.3%

21% same direction

-17.7%

20% same direction

Analyst · 6 moreWTI · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.

Signal grade

MODERATE7/10

Validated out-of-sample — still works on fresh data.

2,364 historical observations

How this works

This is a binary calendar indicator — value is 1 on event days (e.g. movie release, retrograde, McRib launch), 0 every other day. We check what SPY (and the other assets) did over the next 1, 5, 21, and 63 trading days after each event. The hit rate asks: did the market move the same direction more often than a coin flip would predict, on average across all historical event days?

We picked 60 days by sweeping {14, 30, 60, 90} and measuring signal quality — see methodology for the data.

full methodology →

More in filings

Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on this signal. Analyst unlocks the full multi-year track record + bootstrap confidence intervals + an alert when this indicator fires. Trader adds the walk-forward backtest + intraday refresh + the API / MCP to pull this signal into Claude.Compare tiers →