VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardtechnicalSP-4590

ETH MACD histogram

Ethereum MACD histogram.

Sectors:Crypto & Digital Assets
the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 55% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.32%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2113. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
ETHE

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26
-13.8
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 583%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 615%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 26%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-21 → 2026-05-26

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

ETH MACD histogram
-13.78▼ -16.49 (-609.55%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
69.7024.67-20.37-65.40-110.4Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-12 → 2026-05-26 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged +0.32% over the next trading month, moving in the same direction as the signal 55% of the time.

51%
+0.03%
1 d
↓54%
−0.06%
1 wk
↑55%
+0.32%
1 mo
51%
+0.14%
3 mo
51%
+0.77%
6 mo
↑54%
+1.5%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=2,113
+0.03%
51% same direction
-0.06%
46% same direction
+0.32%
55% same direction
+0.14%
51% same direction
+0.77%
51% same direction
+1.5%
54% same direction
DXY
dollar index
n=2,114
-0.01%
48% same direction
+0.03%
52% same direction
-0.09%
46% same direction
-0.04%
48% same direction
-0.19%
47% same direction
+0.15%
51% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
84 fires · 64% positive · avg +0.65%
−28.8%−14.4%0%+14.4%+28.8%2019-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +0.58%2019-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +2.30%2019-07-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 21d: +2.73%2019-07-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.98) · SPY 21d: +5.30%2019-07-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.82) · SPY 21d: +4.40%2019-07-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 21d: +3.34%2019-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: +1.63%2020-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −20.18%2020-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 21d: −28.84%2020-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 21d: −25.12%2020-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 21d: +16.15%2020-02-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 21d: +14.82%2020-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.77) · SPY 21d: +11.68%2020-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 21d: +16.61%2020-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 21d: +18.02%2020-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: +19.51%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.80) · SPY 21d: −11.10%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.05) · SPY 21d: −5.37%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.58) · SPY 21d: −15.81%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 21d: −10.40%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: −19.43%2020-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: +2.83%2020-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 21d: +1.59%2021-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=6.15) · SPY 21d: +3.54%2021-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=6.98) · SPY 21d: +4.00%2021-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=7.59) · SPY 21d: +3.79%2021-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=7.06) · SPY 21d: +3.01%2021-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=6.04) · SPY 21d: +2.36%2021-02-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 21d: −0.01%2021-02-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.98) · SPY 21d: +0.53%2021-02-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.96) · SPY 21d: −3.57%2021-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.29) · SPY 21d: −4.05%2021-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 21d: −1.32%2021-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 21d: −2.53%2021-05-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 21d: +0.51%2021-05-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 21d: +0.76%2021-05-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.60) · SPY 21d: +1.65%2021-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 21d: +0.74%2021-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 21d: +0.04%2021-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 21d: +0.89%2021-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 21d: +2.27%2021-05-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: −1.59%2021-05-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 21d: −2.44%2021-05-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.34) · SPY 21d: −0.99%2021-05-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.46) · SPY 21d: −1.34%2021-05-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.79) · SPY 21d: −1.97%2021-05-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.27) · SPY 21d: −0.82%2021-05-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 21d: −1.64%2022-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −4.44%2022-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: −5.65%2022-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: −8.19%2023-10-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +7.41%2023-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: +9.04%2023-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 21d: +10.16%2023-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +10.78%2024-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +5.17%2024-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +3.65%2024-01-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 21d: −4.67%2024-01-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 21d: −4.63%2024-01-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.54) · SPY 21d: −3.68%2024-01-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 21d: −4.00%2024-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +4.22%2024-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 21d: +2.26%2024-02-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 21d: +2.16%2024-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 21d: +3.24%2024-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +4.78%2024-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 21d: +2.40%2024-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.13) · SPY 21d: +3.14%2024-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.45) · SPY 21d: +4.87%2024-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 21d: +4.30%2024-03-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.86) · SPY 21d: +2.99%2024-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 21d: +2.48%2024-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 21d: +2.44%2024-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 21d: +3.59%2024-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +3.03%2024-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −2.84%2024-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 21d: −0.79%2025-05-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +3.15%2025-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: +2.88%2025-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +1.60%2025-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +2.45%2025-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: +2.50%2025-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +1.76%2026-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 21d: −0.10%2019-05-162021-05-182026-02-05
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.