VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardtechnicalSP-4187

ETH RSI(14)

14-day RSI on Ethereum.

the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 56% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.41%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2122. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
ETHE

Current state

Latest value · 2026-05-26
36.8
vs ~6 weeks ago
35%
vs 60 days ago
20%
vs 7 days ago
5.2%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-21 2026-05-26

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

ETH RSI(14)
36.83 -27.27 (-42.54%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
70.6057.1043.6030.1016.61Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-12 → 2026-05-26 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged +0.41% over the next trading month, moving in the same direction as the signal 56% of the time.

52%
+0.04%
1 d
52%
+0.15%
1 wk
56%
+0.41%
1 mo
53%
+0.42%
3 mo
52%
+0.02%
6 mo
54%
+0.09%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=2,122
+0.04%
52% same direction
+0.15%
52% same direction
+0.41%
56% same direction
+0.42%
53% same direction
+0.02%
48% same direction
+0.09%
46% same direction
WTI
crude oil
n=2,013
-0.09%
51% same direction
+0.01%
48% same direction
+1.2%
54% same direction
+1.6%
53% same direction
+4.9%
61% same direction
+7.0%
59% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreGold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
37 fires · 76% positive · avg +0.28%
−28.8%−14.4%0%+14.4%+28.8%2018-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: +8.87%2018-12-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +13.42%2019-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +1.33%2019-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: +2.27%2019-07-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: +5.30%2020-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 21d: +2.94%2020-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 21d: +2.87%2020-01-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: +1.76%2020-01-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: +1.93%2020-02-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −10.63%2020-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 21d: −17.89%2020-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: −13.18%2020-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: −20.18%2020-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 21d: −28.84%2020-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −25.12%2022-01-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: +1.92%2023-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +4.00%2023-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 21d: +3.55%2023-01-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +4.08%2023-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.61) · SPY 21d: −1.68%2023-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 21d: −1.42%2023-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 21d: +0.16%2023-08-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 21d: +1.54%2023-10-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: +7.80%2023-10-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +7.41%2023-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: +9.04%2023-10-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: +10.16%2023-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +8.62%2023-11-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 21d: +6.49%2024-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +1.45%2025-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +6.13%2025-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: +6.87%2025-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +2.88%2025-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +2.45%2025-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +2.50%2025-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +1.76%2026-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: −0.10%2018-11-202023-01-172026-02-05
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.