VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardtechnicalSP-4309

Gold RSI(14)

14-day RSI on gold futures.

the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 48% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.29%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6425. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

Current state

Latest value · 2026-05-25
42.9
vs ~6 weeks ago
16%
vs 60 days ago
22%
vs 7 days ago
4.5%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-21 2026-05-25

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Gold RSI(14)
42.89 -9.14 (-17.57%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
89.6073.5757.5341.5025.46May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-30 → 2026-05-25 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.02%
1 d
49%
−0.08%
1 wk
48%
−0.29%
1 mo
49%
−0.08%
3 mo
51%
+0.16%
6 mo
51%
+0.13%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,425
-0.02%
49% same direction
-0.08%
49% same direction
-0.29%
48% same direction
-0.08%
49% same direction
+0.16%
51% same direction
+0.13%
51% same direction
Copper
futures
n=6,332
-0.01%
50% same direction
-0.01%
50% same direction
-0.10%
51% same direction
+0.77%
51% same direction
+2.2%
55% same direction
+1.5%
54% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · DXY · MOVE · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
76 fires · 64% positive · avg +0.73%
−10.7%−5.4%0%+5.4%+10.7%2002-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 21d: −0.61%2002-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: −1.11%2006-06-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 21d: −1.18%2006-06-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 21d: −0.02%2006-06-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 21d: +2.20%2007-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +5.92%2007-09-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: −1.71%2007-09-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: −0.94%2007-09-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +0.05%2008-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 21d: −1.21%2008-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: +5.35%2008-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 21d: +2.97%2009-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +1.02%2009-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +1.20%2010-10-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: +3.37%2010-10-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +5.37%2011-08-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: +3.23%2012-05-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −0.99%2012-09-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 21d: +0.91%2012-09-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: −2.52%2012-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: −2.15%2012-09-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: −0.82%2013-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −6.52%2013-08-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +3.16%2013-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: +4.34%2013-08-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +1.75%2013-08-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +1.83%2013-08-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 21d: +3.89%2013-08-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: +3.05%2013-08-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +2.34%2014-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +1.31%2015-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: +3.50%2016-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +7.53%2016-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 21d: +7.61%2016-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +9.44%2016-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 21d: +10.74%2016-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: +8.33%2016-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 21d: +2.30%2016-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 21d: +3.18%2016-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 21d: +3.35%2016-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 21d: +0.88%2016-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −1.38%2016-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −1.50%2016-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −2.14%2018-06-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 21d: −3.35%2019-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +2.66%2019-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +3.18%2020-08-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +4.00%2020-08-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +2.46%2021-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: +0.04%2021-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +0.89%2021-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +2.27%2021-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: +1.59%2021-05-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 21d: +2.44%2021-05-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 21d: +0.99%2021-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: +1.34%2021-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +1.97%2021-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: +0.82%2021-05-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: +1.64%2021-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: +1.80%2021-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +1.82%2022-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 21d: +5.70%2022-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 21d: +7.27%2022-07-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 21d: −8.07%2022-07-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: −6.29%2022-07-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 21d: −7.06%2022-07-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 21d: −10.28%2024-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +1.49%2024-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 21d: +0.56%2024-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −1.18%2024-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 21d: −2.27%2024-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −3.16%2026-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −7.41%2026-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: −8.56%2026-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 21d: −8.52%2026-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 21d: −8.46%2002-12-182016-10-052026-03-24
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.