StandardequitiesSP-1313

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Search ad spend + cloud + YouTube. Antitrust risk tracker.

the verdict —

At the 5d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 48% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.12%. Status: in sample. n = 5455. Bearish on the underlying when fired.

What to watch when it fires

GOOGL

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-22

383.0

vs ~6 weeks ago

↑ 21%

vs 60 days ago

↑ 25%

vs 7 days ago

↓ 4.9%

last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 → 2026-05-22

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

388.8▲ +215.9 (+124.89%) over 1Y

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view

2025-05-27 → 2026-05-27  ·  252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading week. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

48%

−0.05%

1 d

48%

−0.12%

1 wk

49%

−0.16%

1 mo

50%

−0.18%

3 mo

51%

+0.17%

6 mo

51%

+0.06%

1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=5,455

-0.05%

48% same direction

-0.12%

48% same direction

-0.16%

49% same direction

-0.18%

50% same direction

+0.17%

51% same direction

+0.06%

51% same direction

MOVE

bond volatility

n=5,447

+0.42%

54% same direction

+1.6%

56% same direction

+3.0%

55% same direction

+3.8%

55% same direction

+3.4%

54% same direction

+6.7%

54% same direction

Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:

351 fires · 54% positive · avg −0.28%

Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading week, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.