VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comWED · JUN 17 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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Standardenergy_activitySP-2292

Grid Demand — Florida region

EIA-930 Florida region electricity demand (MWh/day).

the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 56% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.55%. Status: OOS validated. n = 1808. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

Current state

Latest value · 2026-06-13
892,393
vs ~6 weeks ago
12%
vs 60 days ago
33%
vs 7 days ago
15%
last 90 observations · 2026-03-16 2026-06-13

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Grid Demand — Florida region
892K +117K (+15.09%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
1.04M913K782K652K522KOct 25Dec 25Feb 26Apr 26Jun 26
2025-10-05 → 2026-06-13 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged +0.55% over the next trading quarter, moving in the same direction as the signal 56% of the time.

51%
−0.01%
1 d
49%
+0.05%
1 wk
51%
+0.13%
1 mo
56%
+0.55%
3 mo
51%
−0.05%
6 mo
49%
−0.58%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=1,808
-0.01%
51% same direction
+0.05%
49% same direction
+0.13%
51% same direction
+0.55%
56% same direction
-0.05%
51% same direction
-0.58%
49% same direction
DXY
dollar index
n=1,627
+0.02%
51% same direction
+0.03%
52% same direction
+0.13%
53% same direction
+0.18%
52% same direction
-0.05%
53% same direction
-0.19%
41% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · MOVE · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
140 fires · 71% positive · avg +2.29%
−17.0%−8.5%0%+8.5%+17.0%2019-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +1.25%2019-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +2.39%2019-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +2.80%2019-05-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +3.09%2019-05-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +3.53%2019-05-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +6.29%2019-06-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +6.51%2019-06-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +3.64%2019-06-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +1.46%2019-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +1.56%2019-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +1.76%2019-06-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +2.46%2019-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −8.29%2019-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −9.43%2019-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −9.22%2019-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −8.78%2019-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −8.52%2019-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −7.99%2019-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −6.91%2019-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −3.75%2019-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −0.77%2019-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −0.17%2019-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +5.06%2019-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +4.48%2020-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +14.21%2020-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +14.72%2020-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +14.91%2020-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +14.72%2020-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +14.74%2020-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +3.87%2020-06-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: +6.52%2020-06-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +5.26%2020-06-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +5.85%2020-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: +6.10%2020-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +5.25%2020-06-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +9.56%2020-06-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +9.77%2020-06-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +7.79%2020-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −14.93%2020-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: −8.63%2020-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −8.31%2020-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −10.26%2021-04-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +4.90%2021-04-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +5.08%2021-05-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.45) · SPY 63d: +4.64%2021-05-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.93) · SPY 63d: +6.14%2021-05-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.97) · SPY 63d: +5.59%2021-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: +5.41%2021-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +5.79%2021-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +6.87%2021-05-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +9.46%2021-06-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +7.32%2021-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +6.94%2021-06-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2021-06-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +4.98%2021-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: +1.54%2021-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +0.98%2021-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: +4.54%2021-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: +3.84%2021-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +2.10%2021-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +3.08%2021-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +4.56%2021-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +4.87%2022-05-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −0.08%2022-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 63d: +0.40%2022-05-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +9.20%2022-05-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +8.39%2022-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: +3.89%2022-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +5.02%2022-05-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +5.57%2022-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +0.00%2022-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +4.83%2022-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +5.54%2022-06-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +2.88%2022-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: +5.16%2022-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +6.20%2022-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: −5.67%2022-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −5.69%2022-09-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −7.07%2022-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.43%2022-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −9.64%2022-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −6.92%2023-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +8.13%2023-05-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +8.87%2023-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +5.07%2023-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +2.26%2023-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +3.02%2023-06-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +0.17%2023-06-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −2.36%2023-06-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: −2.37%2023-06-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: −2.19%2023-07-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −3.71%2023-07-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −4.86%2023-08-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: −2.91%2023-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: −9.28%2023-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: −12.14%2023-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.91) · SPY 63d: −16.96%2023-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −14.34%2024-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +12.01%2024-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +8.53%2024-05-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 63d: +5.52%2024-05-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: +1.19%2024-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.26) · SPY 63d: +1.08%2024-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +0.29%2024-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 63d: +2.60%2024-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.51) · SPY 63d: +2.46%2024-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.93) · SPY 63d: +2.39%2024-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +4.06%2024-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 63d: +3.91%2024-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.52) · SPY 63d: +4.40%2024-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 63d: +4.85%2024-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +5.70%2024-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +5.40%2024-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +4.98%2024-05-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +6.88%2024-05-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +5.92%2024-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2024-05-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: +6.12%2024-05-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +6.84%2024-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +1.07%2024-06-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +2.32%2024-06-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +2.45%2024-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.86) · SPY 63d: −0.91%2024-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 63d: −0.45%2024-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2024-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −3.74%2024-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: +1.76%2025-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +8.26%2025-05-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +7.56%2025-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 63d: +7.63%2025-05-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: +9.04%2025-05-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +10.67%2025-05-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +9.14%2025-05-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +10.02%2025-05-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +9.98%2025-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −2.29%2025-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −1.09%2025-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −0.42%2025-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2026-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +3.25%2019-05-212022-05-262026-02-02
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.
Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on this signal. Analyst unlocks the full multi-year track record + bootstrap confidence intervals + an alert when this indicator fires. Trader adds the walk-forward backtest + intraday refresh + the API / MCP to pull this signal into Claude.Compare tiers →