VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comSUN · JUL 19 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardmacroSP-5180

All-Transactions House Price Index (quarterly)

FHFA's All-Transactions House Price Index broader than Case-Shiller.

Sectors:Construction & Homes
the verdict —
Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: pending.
What to watch when it fires
XHBITB

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-01-01
713.1
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 70%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 127%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 5.6%
last 90 observations · 2003-10-01 → 2026-01-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

All-Transactions House Price Index (quarterly)
713.1▲ +653.4 (+1095.06%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
739.2562.8386.4210.033.5319751987200020132026
1975-01-01 → 2026-01-01 · 205 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
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1 d
50%
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1 wk
50%
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1 mo
50%
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3 mo
50%
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6 mo
50%
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1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=0
—
50% same direction
—
50% same direction
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50% same direction
—
50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
29 fires · 69% positive · avg +0.17%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2025-07-01 (383 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−3.0%−1.5%0%+1.5%+3.0%2001-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.44) · SPY 1d: +1.26%2002-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.45) · SPY 1d: −0.55%2002-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.48) · SPY 1d: −2.12%2002-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.46) · SPY 1d: −3.00%2003-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.38) · SPY 1d: +2.42%2003-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.37) · SPY 1d: +1.26%2003-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.46) · SPY 1d: +0.36%2004-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.48) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2004-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 1d: −0.05%2004-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 1d: +0.17%2005-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 1d: +0.17%2005-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 1d: +0.80%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.35) · SPY 1d: −0.06%2019-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.48) · SPY 1d: +0.05%2019-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 1d: +0.26%2019-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.46) · SPY 1d: −1.77%2020-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.41) · SPY 1d: +2.31%2020-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.46) · SPY 1d: +0.55%2020-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 1d: −0.95%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 1d: +1.44%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2021-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 1d: −1.29%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 1d: +0.86%2022-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 1d: +0.19%2024-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.41) · SPY 1d: −0.64%2024-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.32) · SPY 1d: +0.67%2024-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.22) · SPY 1d: +0.04%2025-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.11) · SPY 1d: +0.63%2025-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.03) · SPY 1d: +0.45%2001-10-012019-07-012025-07-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.

— Related ticker news · XHB, ITB —live

Live from Alpaca / Benzinga. This indicator is editorially mapped to these tickers — open any XHB · ITB for the full feed.
No recent headlines for XHB, ITB in the last 7 days.
Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on this signal. Analyst unlocks the full multi-year track record + bootstrap confidence intervals + an alert when this indicator fires. Trader adds the walk-forward backtest + intraday refresh + the API / MCP to pull this signal into Claude.Compare tiers →