VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardequitiesSP-2428

LIT Lithium & Battery Tech ETF

Lithium miners + EV battery supply chain (Albemarle, SQM, battery tech).

Sectors:Energy & Commodities
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 51% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.20%. Status: OOS validated. n = 3913. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
LIT

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-22
85.3
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 9.5%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 13%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 4.8%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 → 2026-05-22

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

LIT Lithium & Battery Tech ETF
85.53▲ +48.17 (+128.93%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
93.8578.8163.7748.7333.69May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-27 → 2026-05-27 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.01%
1 d
49%
−0.07%
1 wk
51%
+0.04%
1 mo
51%
−0.20%
3 mo
50%
−0.14%
6 mo
50%
−0.22%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=3,913
-0.01%
49% same direction
-0.07%
49% same direction
+0.04%
51% same direction
-0.20%
51% same direction
-0.14%
50% same direction
-0.22%
50% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=3,965
+0.38%
54% same direction
+1.6%
56% same direction
+3.5%
55% same direction
+4.6%
54% same direction
+4.5%
54% same direction
+3.7%
53% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
235 fires · 46% positive · avg −3.72%
−39.3%−19.7%0%+19.7%+39.3%2011-08-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: −3.10%2011-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −5.14%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.54) · SPY 63d: −11.78%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −7.47%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.63) · SPY 63d: −13.88%2011-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −4.97%2011-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −5.25%2011-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −4.91%2011-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −5.36%2011-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −8.36%2011-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −8.41%2011-08-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −8.21%2011-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −2.77%2011-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −0.94%2011-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −0.24%2011-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −10.02%2011-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: −10.33%2011-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −8.73%2011-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −8.42%2011-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −8.68%2011-09-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −10.91%2011-10-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −15.98%2011-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −13.67%2011-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −11.90%2013-04-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −3.85%2013-04-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: −3.48%2013-04-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: −5.07%2013-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: −4.96%2013-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −8.40%2013-04-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −6.42%2013-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −8.28%2013-04-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 63d: −9.56%2013-04-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −8.80%2013-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −8.54%2013-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −7.20%2013-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −6.59%2013-06-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −7.32%2013-06-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −8.19%2013-06-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −6.91%2014-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.28%2014-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +2.78%2014-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −5.97%2014-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −6.36%2014-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 63d: −7.83%2014-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −7.01%2014-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −6.75%2014-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −8.25%2014-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −7.21%2014-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −6.72%2014-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −6.37%2014-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −2.03%2015-07-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: +3.29%2015-07-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +2.68%2015-07-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +1.32%2015-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2015-08-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −2.33%2015-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −5.42%2015-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: −10.45%2015-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 63d: −11.64%2015-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −7.66%2015-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −9.86%2015-09-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −6.71%2015-09-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −8.84%2016-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2016-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 63d: +3.00%2016-04-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: +3.33%2016-04-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +3.49%2016-04-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +3.96%2016-06-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +3.32%2016-06-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +3.47%2016-06-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +3.13%2016-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +3.03%2017-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +3.31%2017-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +3.46%2017-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +4.87%2017-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +4.81%2017-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +3.85%2017-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: +4.04%2017-01-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: +3.98%2017-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +4.83%2017-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +4.52%2017-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +4.69%2017-03-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +2.57%2017-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +2.92%2017-04-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +3.10%2017-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +2.46%2017-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +2.83%2017-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 63d: +3.05%2017-04-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +2.91%2017-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +3.81%2017-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +6.71%2017-09-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +6.63%2017-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +6.54%2017-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: +6.50%2017-09-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: +6.64%2017-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +6.66%2017-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.49) · SPY 63d: +6.61%2017-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.69) · SPY 63d: +6.72%2017-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.78) · SPY 63d: +7.29%2017-09-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: +6.84%2017-09-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +7.07%2017-09-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +7.27%2017-09-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +6.22%2017-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +6.52%2017-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +6.96%2017-10-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +7.29%2017-10-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +7.37%2017-10-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +7.69%2017-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +8.11%2017-10-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +7.66%2017-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +8.27%2017-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +8.64%2017-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +9.53%2018-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: +0.59%2018-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −0.85%2018-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −2.30%2018-12-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −10.26%2018-12-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −11.62%2018-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 63d: −11.14%2018-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 63d: −12.89%2018-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 63d: −16.79%2018-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.87) · SPY 63d: −19.34%2018-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −14.03%2018-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: −13.87%2018-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −15.37%2018-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −14.42%2019-01-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −14.49%2019-01-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −17.60%2019-01-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −14.34%2019-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −8.92%2019-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −7.97%2019-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −9.24%2020-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: −13.46%2020-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: −15.17%2020-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: −14.96%2020-01-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.26) · SPY 63d: −13.38%2020-01-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: −15.17%2020-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −17.59%2020-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: −15.77%2020-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −15.87%2020-01-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −13.93%2020-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −12.51%2020-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.10) · SPY 63d: −13.03%2020-02-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: −14.60%2020-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: −13.86%2020-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −11.97%2020-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: −12.60%2020-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: −14.49%2020-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 63d: −16.54%2020-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: −15.45%2020-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: −15.20%2020-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: −12.39%2020-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 63d: −13.71%2020-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.48) · SPY 63d: −11.88%2020-02-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −11.58%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −28.02%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −29.86%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −29.63%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −34.89%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −39.32%2020-07-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +5.93%2020-07-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +8.25%2020-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +10.17%2020-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +10.51%2020-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +8.79%2021-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +10.12%2021-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +9.50%2021-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +9.36%2021-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: +8.54%2021-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +7.97%2021-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +9.02%2021-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +8.63%2021-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +9.50%2021-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +7.29%2021-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +8.84%2021-08-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +5.22%2021-08-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +5.20%2021-08-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +5.52%2021-08-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +5.97%2021-08-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +5.32%2021-08-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +4.16%2022-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +10.07%2022-04-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +3.62%2022-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −4.14%2022-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −3.31%2022-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −5.23%2022-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −7.18%2022-12-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −6.77%2022-12-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −7.46%2023-01-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −7.31%2023-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −10.23%2023-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −13.37%2023-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −15.12%2023-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −15.44%2023-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −15.20%2023-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −16.73%2023-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −19.08%2023-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −19.53%2023-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −16.19%2023-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −16.98%2023-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −16.96%2023-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −14.34%2024-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −9.13%2024-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −11.19%2025-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −23.73%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −26.05%2025-09-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: +5.74%2025-09-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.50) · SPY 63d: +5.68%2025-09-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +5.12%2025-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +4.55%2025-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +4.83%2025-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: +3.16%2025-09-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: +3.14%2025-09-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 63d: +2.99%2025-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2025-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +1.92%2025-09-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +2.06%2025-09-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +3.26%2025-09-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: +4.06%2025-09-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 63d: +4.91%2025-09-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 63d: +4.30%2025-09-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: +3.64%2025-09-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 63d: +3.13%2025-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: +2.02%2025-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 63d: +2.08%2025-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.31) · SPY 63d: +2.77%2025-10-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: +3.01%2025-10-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +3.06%2025-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +2.44%2025-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +3.41%2025-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +4.63%2025-10-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +2.69%2025-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +0.67%2025-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +2.29%2025-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +1.09%2011-08-042018-12-182025-10-31
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.