VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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PoorlysportsSP-3998

Mets won previous game

1 if Mets won their most recent game, else 0.

the verdict —
At the 1d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 48% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.03%. Status: in sample. n = 1916. Bearish on the underlying when fired.

Current state

Latest value · 2026-05-24
0.00
vs ~6 weeks ago
100%
vs 60 days ago
100%
vs 7 days ago
100%
Binary calendar indicator — value is 1 on event days, 0 every other day. A time-series sparkline isn't meaningful here (it's mostly zeros). The hit-rate / magnitude stats below are computed against the event days themselves; see the COMING UP strip on the home page for upcoming instances.

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Mets won previous game
0.0000
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
1.040.77000.50000.2300-0.0400Mar 25May 25Aug 25Mar 26May 26
2025-03-13 → 2026-05-24 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

52%
−0.03%
1 d
51%
−0.03%
1 wk
49%
−0.08%
1 mo
50%
−0.13%
3 mo
50%
−0.15%
6 mo
49%
+0.02%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=1,916
-0.03%
48% same direction
-0.03%
51% same direction
-0.08%
49% same direction
-0.13%
50% same direction
-0.15%
50% same direction
+0.02%
49% same direction
WTI
crude oil
n=2,971
-0.04%
49% same direction
+0.19%
51% same direction
-0.19%
49% same direction
-0.40%
49% same direction
-1.1%
47% same direction
-0.58%
48% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreGold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.