VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardequitiesSP-1190

Pfizer

Big pharma. Vaccine + small-molecule production via epa_pfe_waste.

Sectors:Healthcare & Pharma
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 49% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.22%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6566. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
PFE

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-22
25.9
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 3.8%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 4.4%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 0.2%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 → 2026-05-22

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Pfizer
26.21▲ +2.60 (+11.01%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
28.7727.3025.8424.3722.90May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-27 → 2026-05-27 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.04%
1 d
49%
−0.06%
1 wk
50%
−0.08%
1 mo
49%
−0.22%
3 mo
49%
−0.42%
6 mo
49%
−0.49%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,566
-0.04%
49% same direction
-0.06%
49% same direction
-0.08%
50% same direction
-0.22%
49% same direction
-0.42%
49% same direction
-0.49%
49% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=6,498
+0.23%
52% same direction
+0.80%
52% same direction
+1.2%
53% same direction
+3.4%
53% same direction
+3.6%
54% same direction
+4.3%
54% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
317 fires · 38% positive · avg −3.52%
−39.3%−19.7%0%+19.7%+39.3%2001-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: −6.08%2001-03-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −3.67%2001-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.57) · SPY 63d: −5.95%2001-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −3.33%2001-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: −6.65%2001-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.95) · SPY 63d: −9.06%2001-03-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.96) · SPY 63d: −11.43%2001-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −7.31%2001-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −17.86%2002-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +27.66%2002-04-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +22.57%2002-04-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +15.99%2002-04-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +15.69%2002-05-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: +17.61%2002-05-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +11.88%2002-05-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +13.93%2002-06-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 63d: +12.06%2002-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +14.19%2002-07-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +12.94%2002-07-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: +12.75%2002-07-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: +8.86%2002-07-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: +6.55%2002-07-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +2.25%2002-07-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: +1.42%2002-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.61) · SPY 63d: −4.20%2002-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.73) · SPY 63d: −7.83%2002-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.54) · SPY 63d: −12.78%2002-07-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −5.67%2002-07-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −7.38%2003-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +0.42%2003-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.66) · SPY 63d: +1.89%2003-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: +1.78%2003-06-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 63d: +4.58%2003-06-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +4.25%2003-06-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +4.20%2003-06-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +4.49%2003-06-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +3.67%2003-06-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +1.50%2004-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +1.50%2004-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −0.06%2004-02-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −1.21%2004-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −3.92%2004-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −9.08%2004-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −9.61%2004-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −5.96%2004-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +2.15%2005-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.80) · SPY 63d: −7.44%2005-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.21) · SPY 63d: −7.13%2005-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.16) · SPY 63d: −5.58%2005-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.89) · SPY 63d: −6.38%2005-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.82) · SPY 63d: −7.68%2005-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 63d: −8.76%2005-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −6.43%2005-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −6.88%2005-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −5.32%2005-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −3.71%2005-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −3.54%2005-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −4.31%2007-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −2.34%2007-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −4.64%2007-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −4.23%2007-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 63d: −5.77%2007-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −4.53%2007-08-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −4.78%2007-08-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −5.03%2007-08-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −0.48%2007-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −4.99%2007-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −3.92%2008-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −6.73%2008-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −5.05%2008-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −6.18%2008-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −3.02%2008-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −1.77%2008-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +2.33%2008-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +0.73%2008-03-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +2.49%2008-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +7.58%2008-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +8.71%2008-06-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +7.63%2008-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: +1.75%2008-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −2.69%2009-01-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −6.11%2009-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −10.57%2009-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −7.44%2009-02-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −9.46%2009-02-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −6.08%2009-02-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −15.77%2009-02-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −15.23%2009-02-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −19.25%2009-02-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −17.84%2009-02-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −16.65%2009-02-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −20.23%2009-02-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: −25.16%2009-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.56) · SPY 63d: −34.23%2009-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.29) · SPY 63d: −35.37%2009-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −30.56%2009-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −37.40%2009-03-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −37.19%2009-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −38.25%2010-05-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −0.32%2010-05-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +0.55%2010-05-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: +2.12%2010-05-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +1.15%2010-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +2.07%2010-06-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −2.48%2010-06-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −5.12%2010-06-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −2.83%2010-06-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −4.11%2012-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +0.61%2012-10-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −0.15%2012-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +1.92%2012-10-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +2.43%2013-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +5.99%2013-04-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +4.11%2013-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +5.18%2013-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +5.49%2013-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +8.40%2013-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +6.42%2013-04-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +8.28%2013-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +9.56%2013-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +8.80%2013-04-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +8.54%2013-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +7.20%2013-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +1.16%2013-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −0.46%2013-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −0.94%2013-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +0.69%2013-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +3.16%2013-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +2.77%2013-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: +1.65%2013-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +2.61%2013-11-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +3.61%2013-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +2.74%2013-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +2.23%2013-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +2.87%2014-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −5.92%2015-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +2.01%2015-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +2.37%2015-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +3.38%2015-01-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +4.08%2015-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +3.73%2015-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +1.53%2015-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: +1.49%2015-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: +1.57%2015-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: +1.27%2015-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: +1.42%2015-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2015-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2015-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +1.07%2015-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +0.84%2015-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +0.51%2015-02-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +0.51%2015-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −0.20%2015-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −9.15%2015-09-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −10.25%2015-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +6.47%2016-01-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −10.16%2016-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.17%2016-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −6.98%2016-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −9.46%2016-02-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −11.04%2016-02-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −12.41%2017-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +6.50%2017-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +6.66%2017-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +6.72%2017-09-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +6.84%2017-09-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +7.07%2017-09-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +7.27%2017-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +6.52%2017-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +6.96%2017-10-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +7.66%2017-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +8.27%2018-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: −6.99%2018-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: −7.08%2018-07-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −4.03%2018-07-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −5.22%2018-07-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.34) · SPY 63d: −6.21%2018-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.49) · SPY 63d: −4.66%2018-08-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.59) · SPY 63d: −4.16%2018-08-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.37) · SPY 63d: −3.56%2018-08-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.63) · SPY 63d: −4.48%2018-08-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.17) · SPY 63d: −4.27%2018-08-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.48) · SPY 63d: −3.62%2018-08-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.88) · SPY 63d: −1.42%2018-08-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.65) · SPY 63d: −0.94%2018-08-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 63d: −1.54%2018-08-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: −3.99%2018-08-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: −3.45%2018-08-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.51) · SPY 63d: −4.88%2018-08-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.85) · SPY 63d: −4.22%2018-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.84) · SPY 63d: −4.18%2018-08-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.56) · SPY 63d: −6.02%2018-08-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: −7.70%2018-08-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.32) · SPY 63d: −7.27%2018-08-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.33) · SPY 63d: −8.44%2018-08-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: −7.69%2018-08-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −7.42%2018-08-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: −5.80%2018-09-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −6.50%2018-09-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −8.36%2018-09-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −8.62%2018-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −8.18%2018-09-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: −8.75%2018-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −10.45%2018-09-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −11.74%2018-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: −12.32%2018-09-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: −13.72%2018-09-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −15.81%2018-09-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: −17.57%2018-09-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −19.48%2018-09-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −15.33%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: −14.24%2018-10-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: −13.48%2018-10-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: −10.79%2018-10-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: −10.37%2018-10-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: −9.92%2019-04-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −2.46%2019-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −2.63%2019-04-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −2.44%2019-04-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −3.15%2019-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −0.86%2019-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −1.94%2019-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: −3.15%2019-08-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −3.66%2019-08-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.97) · SPY 63d: −7.86%2019-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.80) · SPY 63d: −6.80%2019-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.89) · SPY 63d: −6.62%2019-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 63d: −4.59%2019-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 63d: −5.68%2019-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.16) · SPY 63d: −7.25%2019-08-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.07) · SPY 63d: −5.40%2019-08-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.41) · SPY 63d: −8.84%2019-08-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.04) · SPY 63d: −8.59%2019-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.76) · SPY 63d: −7.17%2019-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 63d: −6.66%2019-08-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 63d: −7.56%2019-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: −6.66%2019-08-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: −6.30%2019-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: −8.92%2019-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −7.97%2019-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −9.24%2019-08-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −8.72%2019-08-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −7.83%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −21.16%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −28.02%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −29.63%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −34.89%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −39.32%2020-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −28.34%2020-03-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −23.22%2020-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +4.59%2020-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +4.10%2020-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +4.68%2020-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +5.55%2020-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.69) · SPY 63d: +6.31%2020-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 63d: +7.42%2020-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 63d: +8.09%2020-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +8.08%2021-07-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +3.90%2021-08-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +4.95%2021-08-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: +4.28%2021-08-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: +5.22%2021-08-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +5.20%2021-08-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +5.52%2021-08-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: +5.97%2021-08-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.91) · SPY 63d: +5.93%2021-08-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +5.32%2021-08-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 63d: +4.16%2021-08-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +4.00%2021-08-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.61) · SPY 63d: +4.54%2021-08-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.97) · SPY 63d: +5.27%2021-08-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: +6.85%2021-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 63d: +6.43%2021-08-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +5.95%2021-08-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.30) · SPY 63d: +4.84%2021-08-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2021-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −4.87%2021-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −3.88%2021-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: −3.28%2021-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −7.50%2021-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: −8.66%2021-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −5.99%2021-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: −6.28%2021-12-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.70) · SPY 63d: −4.70%2021-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 63d: −3.37%2021-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 63d: −1.19%2021-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: −4.16%2021-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: −3.68%2021-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −3.81%2021-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: −4.47%2022-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −0.83%2022-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −6.91%2022-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −8.49%2022-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −10.56%2022-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −11.33%2023-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −8.65%2024-07-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +7.16%2024-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −4.21%2024-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −2.00%2024-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −1.17%2024-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −0.63%2025-04-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −22.77%2025-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −23.73%2025-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −26.05%2025-04-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −13.67%2025-04-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 63d: −19.11%2025-04-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −16.52%2025-04-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −15.78%2025-04-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −19.39%2025-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −19.45%2025-04-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −22.38%2026-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +6.80%2026-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +6.65%2026-02-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: +7.28%2026-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +9.82%2026-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +8.42%2026-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +8.17%2001-03-142016-02-042026-02-17
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.