VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
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StandardmacroSP-4563

Producer Price Index Final Demand (monthly)

BLS PPI input prices into the production pipeline.

Sectors:Macro & Rates
the verdict —
Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: pending.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-04-01
156.5
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 10%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 26%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 4.2%
last 90 observations · 2018-11-01 → 2026-04-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Producer Price Index Final Demand (monthly)
156.5▲ +56.30 (+56.18%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
158.7143.5128.3113.197.9520092013201820222026
2009-11-01 → 2026-04-01 · 198 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
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1 d
50%
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1 wk
50%
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1 mo
50%
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3 mo
50%
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6 mo
50%
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1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=0
—
50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
35 fires · 60% positive · avg +0.09%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2022-12-01 (1274 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−2.5%−1.3%0%+1.3%+2.5%2017-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.15) · SPY 1d: +0.04%2017-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.15) · SPY 1d: +0.33%2017-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.46) · SPY 1d: +0.05%2017-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 1d: −0.72%2017-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 1d: +0.04%2017-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 1d: −0.12%2018-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 1d: −2.18%2018-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 1d: +0.52%2018-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 1d: −0.67%2018-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 1d: +0.47%2018-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 1d: +0.55%2018-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 1d: −0.06%2018-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.48) · SPY 1d: −0.59%2019-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.01) · SPY 1d: +0.70%2019-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.06) · SPY 1d: −0.36%2019-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.18) · SPY 1d: +0.05%2019-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.10) · SPY 1d: −0.22%2021-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.02) · SPY 1d: +1.41%2021-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.18) · SPY 1d: −0.78%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.46) · SPY 1d: +1.44%2021-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 1d: +0.16%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 1d: +0.76%2021-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 1d: +0.31%2021-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 1d: −1.29%2021-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 1d: +0.40%2021-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.02) · SPY 1d: +1.53%2022-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 1d: +0.97%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 1d: +1.84%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 1d: +0.86%2022-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 1d: +1.90%2022-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 1d: +0.19%2022-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.49) · SPY 1d: −0.66%2022-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.39) · SPY 1d: −1.05%2022-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.24) · SPY 1d: −2.51%2022-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.07) · SPY 1d: −0.11%2017-05-012021-02-012022-12-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.