US Presidential Election Day
1 on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November in election years.
— Current state —
— Not currently firing —
This is a binary event indicator — it reads 1 on fire days, 0 otherwise. The chart would render as a flat-zero line through the visible window (no fires recently), so we've replaced it with the numbers that actually matter:
- Last fired: —
- Total fires in our history: 6384
- Best-edge horizon: 252d · direction down · 25.0pp from chance
The cross-asset and predictive sections below are computed from past fire days only, so they remain informative even when the indicator is quiet today.
— What it has historically predicted —
On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged -7.7% over the next year, moving in the opposite direction 75% of the time.
— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —
Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).