VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardequitiesSP-1662

Samsung Electronics (KS)

Samsung Electronics Korea. Chip-fab + consumer electronics. Paired with epa_samsung_waste.

the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 49% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.05%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6311. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

Current state

Latest value · 2026-05-26
301,500
vs ~6 weeks ago
48%
vs 60 days ago
48%
vs 7 days ago
1.9%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-12 2026-05-26

The series — full history

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Samsung Electronics (KS)
307K +250K (+434.84%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
317K249K180K112K43,776May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-14 → 2026-05-27 · 252 bars

What it has historically predicted

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
+0.02%
1 d
49%
−0.08%
1 wk
49%
−0.05%
1 mo
49%
−0.05%
3 mo
50%
+0.02%
6 mo
51%
+0.04%
1 yr

Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,311
+0.02%
50% same direction
-0.08%
49% same direction
-0.05%
49% same direction
-0.05%
49% same direction
+0.02%
50% same direction
+0.04%
51% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=6,356
+0.09%
51% same direction
+0.81%
53% same direction
+0.83%
52% same direction
+1.3%
51% same direction
+0.35%
50% same direction
+0.55%
51% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
440 fires · 61% positive · avg +0.96%
−30.5%−15.3%0%+15.3%+30.5%2000-06-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +0.71%2000-09-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +9.46%2000-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +9.08%2000-09-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +12.50%2000-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: +3.14%2000-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: +0.84%2000-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2000-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2000-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −0.02%2000-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: +0.18%2000-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +3.16%2001-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −17.30%2001-09-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 63d: −17.86%2001-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −14.15%2001-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −12.76%2001-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −13.78%2001-09-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −13.48%2001-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −11.07%2001-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −9.62%2001-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −9.42%2001-10-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −8.84%2001-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2001-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 63d: −0.08%2001-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.50) · SPY 63d: +0.52%2001-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +2.07%2001-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −1.78%2002-01-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 63d: −2.48%2002-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2002-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 63d: −3.99%2002-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 63d: −3.98%2002-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: −2.67%2002-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 63d: −4.31%2002-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −4.01%2002-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −3.80%2002-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 63d: −0.89%2002-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −1.90%2002-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: −5.42%2002-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −1.52%2002-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −15.42%2002-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −10.54%2003-02-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −12.36%2003-02-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −12.94%2003-02-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −13.52%2003-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +3.81%2003-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +5.35%2003-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +6.59%2004-04-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −1.49%2004-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: −4.91%2005-02-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −1.87%2005-02-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −3.00%2005-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −1.74%2005-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −3.16%2005-02-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −3.21%2005-02-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: −2.93%2005-02-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: −2.00%2005-02-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −0.78%2005-02-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: −1.05%2005-02-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +1.00%2005-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: −0.32%2005-09-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +2.26%2005-09-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +3.33%2005-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +3.78%2006-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +2.91%2006-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −0.20%2006-01-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +3.04%2007-07-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.50) · SPY 63d: +0.40%2007-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +10.93%2007-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +13.50%2007-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +10.93%2008-04-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −6.09%2008-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −7.92%2008-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −7.15%2008-04-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: −7.68%2008-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −9.03%2008-04-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: −9.02%2008-04-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: −7.58%2008-04-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.07) · SPY 63d: −10.12%2008-04-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.66) · SPY 63d: −11.45%2008-04-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: −9.20%2008-04-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.27) · SPY 63d: −7.04%2008-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 63d: −10.13%2008-05-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.52) · SPY 63d: −10.85%2008-05-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 63d: −11.25%2008-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.57) · SPY 63d: −9.64%2008-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: −7.59%2008-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: −8.73%2008-05-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: −6.86%2008-05-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: −7.92%2008-05-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −8.67%2008-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 63d: −9.11%2008-05-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.10) · SPY 63d: −8.76%2008-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: +2.88%2009-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +14.40%2009-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +15.23%2009-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +17.40%2009-07-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +14.46%2009-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +14.88%2009-07-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +14.30%2009-07-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +9.89%2009-07-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +9.21%2009-07-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +5.82%2009-07-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +7.93%2009-08-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +3.11%2009-08-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +3.60%2009-08-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +4.22%2009-08-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +6.28%2009-08-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +7.42%2009-08-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +7.58%2009-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +11.08%2010-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −13.94%2010-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: −13.58%2010-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +6.95%2010-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +8.00%2010-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.16) · SPY 63d: +7.78%2010-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +5.40%2010-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.45) · SPY 63d: +5.72%2010-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +4.47%2010-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.57) · SPY 63d: +3.21%2010-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.41) · SPY 63d: +1.21%2010-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +3.02%2010-12-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +2.35%2010-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2010-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.11) · SPY 63d: +3.76%2010-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +3.40%2010-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 63d: +4.07%2010-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +4.54%2010-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +4.24%2010-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +4.79%2010-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +5.44%2010-12-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +5.46%2011-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: +4.89%2011-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +4.93%2011-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 63d: +4.72%2011-01-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +0.80%2011-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +2.39%2011-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +3.92%2011-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +4.21%2011-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +4.63%2011-01-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +4.71%2011-01-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +6.82%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −11.78%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 63d: −7.47%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.63) · SPY 63d: −13.88%2011-08-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.76) · SPY 63d: −4.97%2011-08-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.63) · SPY 63d: −5.25%2011-08-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −4.91%2011-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −5.36%2011-08-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 63d: −8.36%2011-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.74) · SPY 63d: −8.41%2011-08-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: −8.21%2011-08-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −2.77%2011-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −0.94%2011-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −0.24%2011-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2011-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +9.43%2011-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +7.50%2011-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +12.64%2012-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +9.32%2012-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +9.43%2012-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +8.58%2012-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +8.65%2012-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +8.80%2012-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +8.29%2012-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +6.18%2013-01-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +6.71%2013-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +6.47%2013-07-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −3.01%2013-07-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −1.39%2013-08-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −4.19%2013-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −4.34%2014-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −4.78%2014-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −4.10%2014-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −5.68%2014-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −4.71%2014-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −6.36%2014-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −7.83%2014-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −7.21%2014-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −6.20%2015-08-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −0.97%2015-08-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: +3.82%2015-08-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −5.42%2015-08-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −10.45%2015-08-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −11.64%2015-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −7.66%2015-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −5.04%2016-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +3.03%2016-06-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +2.39%2016-06-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +3.71%2016-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +3.04%2016-07-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +3.54%2016-07-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +0.77%2016-07-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −1.11%2016-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: −1.31%2016-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: −1.52%2016-07-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: −1.76%2016-07-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: −1.56%2016-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: −0.92%2016-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −2.03%2016-08-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −0.45%2016-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +0.21%2016-08-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: −0.01%2016-08-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +0.54%2016-08-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +1.25%2017-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +3.43%2018-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: +2.47%2018-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −0.85%2019-10-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +10.64%2019-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +9.81%2019-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +10.90%2019-10-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +10.92%2019-10-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +10.45%2019-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +10.94%2019-10-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +9.63%2019-10-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +7.70%2019-10-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +8.38%2019-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +7.69%2019-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +8.07%2019-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +8.29%2019-11-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +8.78%2019-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: +8.17%2019-11-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +8.60%2019-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +9.08%2019-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 63d: +8.78%2019-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +8.52%2019-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +7.99%2019-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +6.91%2019-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: −20.33%2019-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −24.74%2019-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: −28.41%2019-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: −30.52%2019-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: −24.19%2019-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: −18.96%2020-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: −14.83%2020-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: −15.37%2020-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: −13.46%2020-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: −15.17%2020-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −14.96%2020-01-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: −13.38%2020-01-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: −15.17%2020-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −17.59%2020-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: −15.77%2020-11-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +7.76%2020-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +6.96%2020-11-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +4.72%2020-11-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +6.29%2020-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +4.59%2020-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +4.10%2020-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +4.68%2020-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +5.55%2020-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +6.31%2020-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +7.42%2020-12-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +8.09%2020-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +8.08%2020-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +8.94%2020-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +5.92%2020-12-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.22%2020-12-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +5.47%2020-12-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: +7.26%2020-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +6.06%2020-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +6.69%2020-12-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +7.69%2021-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +10.12%2021-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 63d: +9.50%2021-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +9.36%2021-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +8.54%2021-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.69) · SPY 63d: +7.97%2021-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.81) · SPY 63d: +9.02%2021-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.60) · SPY 63d: +8.63%2021-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: +9.50%2021-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 63d: +10.25%2021-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +10.52%2021-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +8.85%2021-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +8.38%2021-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 63d: +7.29%2021-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 63d: +8.84%2021-01-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +8.64%2021-10-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −10.26%2021-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −7.70%2021-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −6.68%2021-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −6.45%2021-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: −8.33%2021-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −8.24%2021-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −4.98%2021-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −4.23%2021-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −2.08%2021-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −0.25%2021-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +1.25%2021-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +3.44%2022-06-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −2.88%2022-06-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −5.16%2022-06-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −6.20%2022-06-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −2.40%2022-06-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −0.80%2022-06-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: +1.02%2022-06-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: +5.67%2022-06-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +6.25%2022-06-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +2.58%2022-06-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: +3.83%2022-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: +6.31%2022-07-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2023-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.41%2023-05-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 63d: +6.90%2023-05-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +7.94%2023-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +6.76%2023-06-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +5.44%2023-06-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +5.18%2023-06-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 63d: +4.32%2023-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: +2.26%2023-12-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +9.99%2023-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +9.77%2023-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +9.54%2024-01-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 63d: +9.89%2024-03-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +4.27%2024-03-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +4.13%2024-03-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +5.15%2024-03-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +4.44%2024-03-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: +4.04%2024-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: +4.44%2024-04-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.98) · SPY 63d: +5.82%2024-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.53) · SPY 63d: +6.17%2024-04-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.74) · SPY 63d: +8.10%2024-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.36) · SPY 63d: +7.11%2024-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 63d: +7.15%2024-04-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 63d: +8.09%2024-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 63d: +8.11%2024-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +9.92%2024-07-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +2.38%2024-07-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +3.19%2024-07-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 63d: +2.15%2024-07-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +2.11%2024-07-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 63d: +3.71%2024-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +3.45%2024-09-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −10.18%2024-09-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: −8.73%2024-09-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −7.53%2024-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.06) · SPY 63d: −2.68%2024-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −3.14%2024-09-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −3.77%2024-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −4.09%2024-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −5.48%2024-09-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −2.52%2024-10-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −2.77%2024-10-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −3.91%2024-10-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −3.67%2024-10-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2024-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −0.91%2024-10-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −0.45%2024-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2024-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −2.62%2024-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −3.74%2024-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −4.23%2024-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −4.36%2024-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −3.93%2024-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −2.14%2024-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −2.40%2024-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −3.30%2025-07-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: +7.02%2025-07-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +6.57%2025-07-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +6.09%2025-07-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.70) · SPY 63d: +5.91%2025-07-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.70) · SPY 63d: +5.27%2025-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.78) · SPY 63d: +5.67%2025-07-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.05) · SPY 63d: +6.75%2025-07-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +5.85%2025-07-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 63d: +5.26%2025-07-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: +5.44%2025-07-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.03) · SPY 63d: +6.33%2025-07-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.90) · SPY 63d: +7.87%2025-07-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.28) · SPY 63d: +8.29%2025-07-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.75) · SPY 63d: +8.75%2025-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +9.35%2025-08-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 63d: +8.06%2025-08-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +8.82%2025-08-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +6.71%2025-08-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 63d: +7.17%2025-08-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +5.20%2025-08-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 63d: +5.51%2025-08-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +6.03%2025-08-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 63d: +5.91%2025-08-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 63d: +5.96%2025-09-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +4.83%2025-09-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 63d: +3.16%2025-09-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 63d: +3.14%2025-09-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +2.99%2025-09-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.06) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2025-09-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 63d: +2.06%2025-09-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.49) · SPY 63d: +3.26%2025-09-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +4.06%2025-09-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.43) · SPY 63d: +4.91%2025-09-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 63d: +4.30%2025-09-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 63d: +3.64%2025-09-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +3.13%2025-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.03) · SPY 63d: +2.02%2025-10-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.40) · SPY 63d: +2.08%2025-10-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.82) · SPY 63d: +6.45%2025-10-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.53) · SPY 63d: +4.63%2025-10-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +4.25%2025-10-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.47) · SPY 63d: +4.07%2025-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.62) · SPY 63d: +4.70%2025-10-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.50) · SPY 63d: +1.98%2025-10-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 63d: +2.10%2025-10-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +2.63%2025-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.21) · SPY 63d: +3.21%2025-10-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 63d: +3.12%2025-10-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: +2.69%2025-10-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 63d: +1.49%2025-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +1.02%2025-10-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +0.67%2025-10-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 63d: +2.29%2025-10-31 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 63d: +1.09%2025-11-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.46) · SPY 63d: +0.42%2025-11-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +0.35%2026-01-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2026-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.04) · SPY 63d: −4.14%2026-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 63d: −2.28%2026-01-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 63d: −1.40%2026-01-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: −1.46%2026-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −1.15%2026-01-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −0.10%2026-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 63d: +0.89%2026-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +1.64%2026-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +2.59%2026-01-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 63d: +2.47%2026-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +3.91%2026-01-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +3.77%2026-01-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +2.83%2026-01-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: +3.58%2026-01-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 63d: +3.24%2026-01-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 63d: +2.33%2026-01-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 63d: +2.32%2026-01-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 63d: +3.55%2026-01-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 63d: +4.15%2026-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 63d: +4.97%2026-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +6.94%2026-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +6.54%2026-02-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 63d: +9.82%2026-02-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 63d: +8.42%2026-02-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 63d: +8.29%2026-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: +7.73%2026-02-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: +9.27%2000-06-142019-11-072026-02-23
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.