Temporary Help Services Payrolls
Temp-staffing employment (BLS). Classic leading indicator — firms cut temps before permanent staff, so it turns down before recessions.
— Current state —
— The series — full history —
Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.
— What it has historically predicted —
On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged +1.2% over the next six months, moving in the same direction as the signal 59% of the time.
— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —
Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).