VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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StandardtechnicalSP-4763

WTI Crude MACD histogram

WTI MACD histogram. Sign-flips on energy futures.

the verdict —
At the 5d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 48% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.14%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6434. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
USOXOMCVX

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-25
-1.20
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 46%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 235%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 797%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-21 → 2026-05-25

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

WTI Crude MACD histogram
-1.20▼ -1.28 (-1602.98%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
3.031.520.0117-1.50-3.01May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-30 → 2026-05-25 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading week. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

51%
−0.00%
1 d
↓52%
−0.14%
1 wk
50%
−0.15%
1 mo
51%
+0.07%
3 mo
49%
−0.06%
6 mo
49%
−0.33%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,434
-0.00%
51% same direction
-0.14%
48% same direction
-0.15%
50% same direction
+0.07%
51% same direction
-0.06%
49% same direction
-0.33%
49% same direction
VNQ
REIT ETF
n=5,408
-0.00%
51% same direction
-0.22%
46% same direction
-0.41%
46% same direction
-0.03%
50% same direction
-0.12%
51% same direction
+0.33%
52% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
177 fires · 35% positive · avg −0.55%
−15.0%−7.5%0%+7.5%+15.0%2001-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 5d: −3.55%2001-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.56) · SPY 5d: −3.76%2001-09-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 5d: −5.88%2001-09-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 5d: −5.05%2001-09-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 5d: −2.67%2002-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 5d: −0.46%2002-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 5d: −2.00%2003-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.61) · SPY 5d: −0.26%2003-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.84) · SPY 5d: +1.00%2003-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.56) · SPY 5d: +1.13%2003-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.99) · SPY 5d: +3.30%2003-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.14) · SPY 5d: +2.25%2003-03-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.52) · SPY 5d: +1.69%2003-03-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 5d: −1.19%2003-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −0.63%2004-06-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 5d: +0.75%2004-06-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 5d: −0.03%2004-08-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 5d: −1.33%2004-08-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 5d: −0.60%2004-08-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 5d: −2.11%2004-08-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 5d: −1.32%2004-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 5d: −1.04%2004-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 5d: −3.17%2004-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 5d: −2.93%2004-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 5d: −1.73%2004-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 5d: −1.12%2004-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 5d: −1.29%2004-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 5d: −1.38%2004-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 5d: −0.86%2006-02-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 5d: −1.19%2006-02-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 5d: −0.69%2006-02-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 5d: −0.19%2007-01-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 5d: −0.46%2007-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 5d: −0.60%2007-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 5d: −1.51%2007-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 5d: −2.98%2007-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 5d: −1.06%2007-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 5d: −0.38%2007-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 5d: +1.25%2008-02-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 5d: +1.69%2008-07-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 5d: +0.40%2008-07-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 5d: +1.91%2008-07-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 5d: +0.94%2008-07-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 5d: −0.28%2008-07-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 5d: −1.05%2008-07-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 5d: −0.54%2008-07-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 5d: −1.09%2008-07-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −1.65%2009-01-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 5d: −6.80%2009-07-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 5d: −5.98%2009-07-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 5d: −5.60%2009-07-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 5d: −7.02%2009-07-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 5d: −5.58%2009-07-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −5.47%2011-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 5d: +1.94%2011-02-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.12) · SPY 5d: +0.11%2011-02-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 5d: −1.29%2011-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 5d: +1.26%2011-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.29) · SPY 5d: +0.90%2011-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 5d: −2.65%2011-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 5d: −1.23%2011-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.09) · SPY 5d: −1.05%2011-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 5d: −3.03%2011-05-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.54) · SPY 5d: +0.12%2011-05-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 5d: +1.14%2011-05-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 5d: +1.99%2011-05-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 5d: +0.06%2011-05-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 5d: +0.30%2011-05-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: +0.32%2011-05-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: +0.85%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 5d: −7.45%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 5d: −1.80%2011-08-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 5d: −6.57%2012-07-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 5d: −2.40%2014-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 5d: −3.36%2014-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −2.80%2014-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 5d: −3.99%2014-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: −4.97%2015-02-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 5d: +1.34%2015-02-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.79) · SPY 5d: +0.96%2015-02-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 5d: +1.41%2015-02-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.32) · SPY 5d: +1.36%2015-02-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 5d: +2.06%2015-02-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.44) · SPY 5d: +2.68%2015-02-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 5d: +1.60%2016-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 5d: −0.57%2018-02-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 5d: −5.98%2018-02-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.52) · SPY 5d: −4.44%2018-02-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.71) · SPY 5d: −2.28%2018-02-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.62) · SPY 5d: −1.52%2018-02-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 5d: −0.30%2018-05-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 5d: −2.26%2018-05-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 5d: −1.76%2018-05-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 5d: −2.37%2018-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 5d: −1.68%2018-06-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 5d: −1.33%2018-06-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 5d: −1.39%2018-06-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 5d: −0.23%2018-06-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 5d: +1.40%2018-06-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 5d: +1.67%2018-06-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.32) · SPY 5d: +2.44%2018-07-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.19) · SPY 5d: +2.59%2018-07-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 5d: +2.20%2019-01-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 5d: +1.17%2019-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 5d: +1.58%2019-01-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 5d: +2.89%2020-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 5d: +12.54%2020-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.80) · SPY 5d: +12.35%2020-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.91) · SPY 5d: +12.52%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.88) · SPY 5d: +3.06%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.50) · SPY 5d: +15.04%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.44) · SPY 5d: +7.05%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 5d: +3.82%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.93) · SPY 5d: −2.83%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 5d: −8.60%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 5d: −10.76%2020-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 5d: +11.07%2020-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 5d: +7.15%2020-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 5d: +4.76%2020-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 5d: +1.85%2020-04-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.88) · SPY 5d: −1.94%2020-04-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.70) · SPY 5d: −4.65%2020-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 5d: +3.41%2020-05-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 5d: +3.15%2020-05-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.34) · SPY 5d: +0.17%2020-05-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 5d: −0.93%2020-05-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 5d: −0.94%2020-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 5d: −2.11%2020-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 5d: +0.85%2021-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 5d: −1.67%2021-03-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 5d: −0.81%2021-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.59) · SPY 5d: −1.34%2021-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 5d: −2.27%2021-03-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 5d: −2.80%2021-03-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 5d: −2.62%2021-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 5d: −3.78%2021-07-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.25) · SPY 5d: −1.84%2021-07-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 5d: −0.98%2021-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: +1.21%2021-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 5d: +1.25%2021-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.58) · SPY 5d: −2.79%2021-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.70) · SPY 5d: −4.22%2021-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.35) · SPY 5d: −1.96%2021-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 5d: −3.82%2022-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.37) · SPY 5d: −2.80%2022-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.02) · SPY 5d: −0.58%2022-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.46) · SPY 5d: +2.38%2022-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 5d: +1.92%2022-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 5d: −1.88%2022-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 5d: −2.14%2022-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 5d: +2.45%2022-06-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 5d: +0.21%2023-10-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −0.46%2025-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 5d: +0.68%2025-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 5d: +1.60%2025-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 5d: +2.42%2025-06-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 5d: +3.47%2026-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 5d: −1.28%2026-03-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.11) · SPY 5d: −2.24%2026-03-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=6.62) · SPY 5d: −1.50%2026-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=7.93) · SPY 5d: −1.36%2026-03-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=5.71) · SPY 5d: −0.94%2026-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.73) · SPY 5d: −2.20%2026-03-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.98) · SPY 5d: −0.94%2026-03-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=5.01) · SPY 5d: −2.07%2026-03-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.90) · SPY 5d: −2.04%2026-03-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.28) · SPY 5d: −2.63%2026-03-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 5d: −0.70%2026-04-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 5d: −4.52%2026-04-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 5d: −3.30%2026-04-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.67) · SPY 5d: −1.39%2026-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.02) · SPY 5d: −1.61%2026-04-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 5d: −0.97%2026-04-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.38) · SPY 5d: −0.53%2026-04-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.96) · SPY 5d: −0.91%2026-04-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 5d: −1.08%2026-04-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 5d: −0.05%2001-09-242018-02-122026-04-22
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading week, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.