VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
← back to front page·indicator report
StandardtechnicalSP-4360

WTI Crude RSI(14)

14-day RSI on WTI crude. Energy mean-reversion gauge.

the verdict —
At the 5d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 48% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.15%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6431. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
USOXOMCVX

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-25
41.7
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 18%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 46%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 29%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-21 → 2026-05-25

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

WTI Crude RSI(14)
41.74▼ -4.07 (-8.89%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
92.7176.8761.0245.1829.33May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-30 → 2026-05-25 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading week. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
−0.01%
1 d
↓52%
−0.15%
1 wk
49%
−0.24%
1 mo
52%
+0.15%
3 mo
50%
+0.02%
6 mo
49%
−0.05%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,431
-0.01%
50% same direction
-0.15%
48% same direction
-0.24%
49% same direction
+0.15%
52% same direction
+0.02%
50% same direction
-0.05%
49% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=2,894
+0.05%
52% same direction
+0.42%
52% same direction
+2.0%
54% same direction
+5.7%
55% same direction
+5.9%
54% same direction
+6.3%
51% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
113 fires · 48% positive · avg +0.01%
−12.5%−6.3%0%+6.3%+12.5%2001-09-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 5d: −3.55%2001-09-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 5d: −3.76%2002-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 5d: −0.53%2002-03-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 5d: −0.29%2002-03-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 5d: −0.49%2002-03-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 5d: +0.24%2002-03-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 5d: −0.51%2002-03-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 5d: −2.62%2002-03-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 5d: −2.71%2002-04-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 5d: −1.58%2002-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: −0.08%2002-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 5d: −3.70%2002-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −4.04%2002-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: +3.15%2002-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 5d: +4.29%2002-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 5d: +0.03%2003-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 5d: +1.13%2003-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 5d: +3.30%2004-08-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 5d: +1.27%2004-10-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 5d: −1.14%2006-02-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 5d: −0.69%2006-09-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 5d: −0.09%2006-09-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 5d: −0.22%2006-09-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: +0.27%2006-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 5d: +0.37%2006-09-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: −1.34%2006-09-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 5d: −0.93%2008-09-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 5d: −1.02%2008-09-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 5d: +2.91%2009-03-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 5d: −4.17%2009-03-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 5d: −1.34%2009-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.56) · SPY 5d: −0.64%2010-05-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 5d: +4.20%2010-05-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 5d: +5.48%2010-05-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 5d: +4.08%2010-05-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 5d: +4.11%2010-05-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 5d: −2.99%2011-05-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 5d: +0.12%2011-08-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 5d: −7.45%2011-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 5d: −1.80%2012-02-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 5d: +0.28%2012-05-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 5d: +2.35%2012-05-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: +2.14%2012-05-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 5d: +4.33%2012-05-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 5d: +1.60%2012-05-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 5d: +0.85%2012-05-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 5d: +0.42%2012-05-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 5d: −1.28%2012-05-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 5d: −1.82%2012-05-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 5d: +0.33%2012-05-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 5d: +0.60%2012-05-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: −0.16%2012-05-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 5d: −0.44%2012-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 5d: −3.85%2012-06-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 5d: −2.58%2015-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 5d: +1.07%2015-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.70) · SPY 5d: +0.10%2015-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 5d: +0.38%2016-03-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 5d: +0.95%2017-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 5d: −0.68%2017-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 5d: +0.28%2017-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 5d: +0.44%2017-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 5d: +1.34%2017-05-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: −0.26%2017-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 5d: −0.20%2018-06-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 5d: −1.33%2018-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 5d: −2.56%2018-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 5d: −2.16%2018-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 5d: +0.30%2018-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 5d: +1.11%2018-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 5d: +3.85%2018-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 5d: +2.67%2018-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 5d: +1.45%2018-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 5d: +1.27%2018-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 5d: +2.92%2018-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 5d: +1.92%2018-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 5d: +3.58%2018-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: +2.28%2018-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 5d: −3.96%2020-01-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 5d: −3.25%2020-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 5d: −3.26%2020-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 5d: −1.88%2020-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 5d: +12.54%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 5d: −2.83%2020-04-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 5d: −1.94%2021-07-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 5d: −3.78%2021-08-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 5d: −1.09%2021-08-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 5d: −1.46%2021-08-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 5d: −1.55%2021-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 5d: +1.21%2021-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 5d: −2.79%2021-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 5d: −4.22%2023-04-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 5d: −0.30%2023-04-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 5d: −0.15%2023-04-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 5d: +1.44%2023-04-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 5d: +0.80%2023-04-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 5d: +1.49%2025-01-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 5d: +2.94%2025-01-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.22) · SPY 5d: +3.73%2025-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 5d: +2.86%2025-06-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 5d: +0.53%2025-06-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 5d: +0.68%2025-06-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 5d: +1.60%2025-06-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 5d: +2.42%2025-06-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 5d: +3.47%2026-03-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 5d: −1.18%2026-03-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 5d: −0.46%2026-03-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.18) · SPY 5d: −1.28%2026-03-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.86) · SPY 5d: −2.24%2026-03-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.36) · SPY 5d: −1.50%2026-03-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.38) · SPY 5d: −1.36%2026-03-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 5d: −0.94%2026-03-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 5d: −2.07%2001-09-242015-04-152026-03-13
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading week, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.