PoorlyweatherSP-4320

Chicago Temperature

Mean daily temperature in Chicago (C).

Sectors:Regional Metros Weather & Climate

the verdict —

At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 51% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -0.11%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6566. Bearish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18

23.8

vs ~6 weeks ago

↑ 116%

vs 60 days ago

↑ 396%

vs 7 days ago

↑ 153%

last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Chicago Temperature

23.80▲ +6.00 (+33.71%) over 1Y

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move

2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18  ·  252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%

−0.01%

1 d

50%

−0.03%

1 wk

51%

+0.04%

1 mo

51%

−0.11%

3 mo

51%

+0.06%

6 mo

51%

−0.48%

1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=6,566

-0.01%

49% same direction

-0.03%

50% same direction

+0.04%

51% same direction

-0.11%

51% same direction

+0.06%

51% same direction

-0.48%

51% same direction

WTI

crude oil

n=6,402

+0.06%

51% same direction

-0.04%

49% same direction

-0.91%

44% same direction

-4.3%

40% same direction

-4.1%

45% same direction

+1.5%

51% same direction

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— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:

417 fires · 44% positive · avg −0.44%

Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.

Regime-tuned params · AutoResearch v13Analyst · preview

Regime-invariant

This indicator's strongest predictive edge sits in Normal VIX: tuned σ = 2.75, window = 240d, horizon = 63d, hit-rate deviation from chance = 50.0pp.

Regime	σ	Window	Horizon	Hit dev
● Low VIX (calm)	2.75	240d	126d	46.0pp
● Normal VIX	2.75	240d	63d	50.0pp
● High VIX (stress)	2.75	240d	63d	50.0pp

Hit-rate deviation = |hit% − 50%| at the row's tuned horizon. Big deviation = strong directional edge in that regime. Regimes split by daily VIX terciles (low / normal / high) over a 1-year rolling window. Analyst + Trader subscribers will be able to filter the home grid and the fire-history bar chart by regime.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.