StandardcreditSP-2795

Credit Card Charge-Off Rate (quarterly)

% of CC balances charged off, annualized.

the verdict —

Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: pending.

What to watch when it fires

LQD HYG

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-01-01

3.84

vs ~6 weeks ago

↑ 4.1%

vs 60 days ago

↓ 45%

vs 7 days ago

↓ 16%

last 90 observations · 2003-10-01 → 2026-01-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Credit Card Charge-Off Rate (quarterly)

3.84▲ +1.94 (+102.11%) over 1Y

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move

1985-01-01 → 2026-01-01  ·  165 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%

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1 d

50%

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1 wk

50%

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1 mo

50%

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3 mo

50%

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6 mo

50%

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1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=0

—

50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

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50% same direction

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:

7 fires · 43% positive · avg −0.12%

⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2010-04-01 (5901 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.

Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.

Signal grade

TOO NEW0/10

Too new to retest — not yet enough fresh data.

0 historical observations

How this works

A "fire day" means the indicator's value moved at least 2.5 standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months) — a meaningful jump in either direction. We then check what SPY (and the other assets) did over the next 1, 5, 21, 63, 126, and 252 trading days. The hit rate asks: did the market move the same direction as the signal more often than a coin flip would predict?

We picked 60 days by sweeping {14, 30, 60, 90} and measuring signal quality — see methodology for the data.

full methodology →