VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardcreditSP-2959

Credit Card Delinquency Rate (quarterly)

% of CC loans 30+ days past due, all commercial banks.

Sectors:Banking & Lending
the verdict —
Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: in sample.
What to watch when it fires
LQDHYG

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-01-01
2.92
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 16%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 24%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 9.3%
last 90 observations · 2003-10-01 → 2026-01-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Credit Card Delinquency Rate (quarterly)
2.92▼ -2.34 (-44.49%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
6.985.564.152.741.3219911999200820172026
1991-01-01 → 2026-01-01 · 141 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

50%
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1 d
50%
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1 wk
50%
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1 mo
50%
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3 mo
50%
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6 mo
50%
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1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=0
—
50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
9 fires · 33% positive · avg −0.52%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2014-04-01 (4440 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−3.6%−1.8%0%+1.8%+3.6%2008-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 1d: −3.63%2009-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.19) · SPY 1d: +2.92%2009-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.25) · SPY 1d: −2.73%2009-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 1d: −0.47%2012-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.24) · SPY 1d: −0.10%2013-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.20) · SPY 1d: −0.49%2013-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.18) · SPY 1d: +0.09%2013-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.12) · SPY 1d: +0.09%2014-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.03) · SPY 1d: −0.34%2008-10-012012-10-012014-04-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading day, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.