StandardmacroSP-5025
Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
Weekly initial unemployment-insurance claims, released Thursdays 8:30am ET.
Sectors:Labor & Employment
the verdict —
Engine has no recorded fires for this indicator (no day where |z|≥2 against the rolling window). The series is too steady, the threshold is too high, or the data is too short to evaluate. Status: pending.
— Current state —
Latest value · 2026-05-16
209,000
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 9.5%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 6.7%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 3.0%
last 90 observations · 2024-08-31 → 2026-05-16
— The series — full history —
Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.
Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
209K▼ -171K (-45.00%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
2021-07-24 → 2026-05-16 · 252 bars
— What it has historically predicted —
Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.
50%
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50%
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50%
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50%
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50%
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50%
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— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —
Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).
target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=0
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
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50% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=572
-0.12%
48% same direction
-0.35%
47% same direction
-1.5%
48% same direction
-0.07%
53% same direction
-13.0%
45% same direction
-44.5%
34% same direction
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.