StandardPoorly
— Sector · serious —

Labor & Employment

Jobless claims, payrolls, JOLTS, layoff announcements.

The labor market's heartbeat. Weekly initial & continuing jobless claims (the closest thing to a real-time labor signal we get), monthly nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate (U3 + U6), JOLTS job-openings, and the Challenger announced job-cuts series. Plus job-search-app rankings (Indeed, Glassdoor, LinkedIn) as a leading behavioral indicator.
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— Flagship signals —

StandardmacroSP-4968

Nonfarm Payrolls (monthly)

159,001↑ 2%vs ~6 weeks ago
First-Friday jobs report change from prior month is the headline.
last fired 9.9 years ago

Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged +5.1% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 67% of the time.

+1.0%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
TRACKING WITH HISTORY
↑54%
−0.04%
1 d
↑52%
−0.12%
1 wk
↑57%
+0.26%
1 mo
↑56%
+1.2%
3 mo
↑65%
+2.3%
6 mo
↑67%
+5.1%
1 yr
StandardmacroSP-4973

JOLTS Job Openings (monthly)

7,618↓ 11%vs ~6 weeks ago
Total nonfarm job openings labor demand gauge.
last fired 4.3 years ago

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter.

−15.7%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
49%
−0.02%
1 d
↑52%
+0.01%
1 wk
49%
+0.03%
1 mo
↑54%
+0.69%
3 mo
51%
+1.1%
6 mo
50%
+1.9%
1 yr
StandardmacroSP-5361

Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)

225,000↓ 1%vs ~6 weeks ago
Weekly initial unemployment-insurance claims, released Thursdays 8:30am ET.

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day.

50%
—
1 d
50%
—
1 wk
50%
—
1 mo
50%
—
3 mo
50%
—
6 mo
50%
—
1 yr

— All labor & employment indicators —