VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
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StandardmacroSP-4637

JOLTS Job Openings (monthly)

Total nonfarm job openings labor demand gauge.

Sectors:Labor & Employment
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 53% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.62%. Status: OOS validated. n = 193. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-03-01
6,866
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 26%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 19%
vs 7 days ago
↓ 0.8%
last 90 observations · 2018-10-01 → 2026-03-01

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

JOLTS Job Openings (monthly)
6,866▲ +2,707 (+65.09%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
12,7049,9857,2674,5481,82920052010201520202026
2005-04-01 → 2026-03-01 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
−0.02%
1 d
↑52%
+0.01%
1 wk
49%
−0.01%
1 mo
↑53%
+0.62%
3 mo
51%
+1.0%
6 mo
50%
+1.9%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=193
-0.02%
49% same direction
+0.01%
52% same direction
-0.01%
49% same direction
+0.62%
53% same direction
+1.0%
51% same direction
+1.9%
50% same direction
BTC
bitcoin
n=138
-0.89%
36% same direction
-1.4%
40% same direction
-2.8%
41% same direction
-11.0%
45% same direction
-27.3%
40% same direction
-69.6%
39% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
35 fires · 46% positive · avg −1.01%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2022-04-01 (1518 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−26.2%−13.1%0%+13.1%+26.2%2006-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.29) · SPY 63d: −1.44%2006-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.17) · SPY 63d: +8.32%2006-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.13) · SPY 63d: +6.70%2007-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.07) · SPY 63d: +9.12%2008-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.12) · SPY 63d: +12.64%2009-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 63d: −13.90%2009-05-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −12.43%2009-06-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.46) · SPY 63d: −9.09%2009-07-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −14.36%2009-09-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.08) · SPY 63d: −11.08%2009-10-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.09) · SPY 63d: −8.23%2014-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.08) · SPY 63d: +2.53%2014-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.03) · SPY 63d: −0.01%2014-08-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.77) · SPY 63d: +3.57%2014-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.03) · SPY 63d: +5.76%2014-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.10) · SPY 63d: +2.17%2015-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.43) · SPY 63d: +0.88%2015-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.24) · SPY 63d: −0.10%2015-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.76) · SPY 63d: −7.65%2015-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.07) · SPY 63d: +6.11%2016-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.11) · SPY 63d: +5.92%2018-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.16) · SPY 63d: +6.10%2018-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.24) · SPY 63d: −0.15%2020-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −26.15%2021-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 63d: +7.82%2021-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.88) · SPY 63d: +7.44%2021-06-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.07) · SPY 63d: +7.76%2021-07-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.23) · SPY 63d: −0.30%2021-09-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.17) · SPY 63d: −0.29%2021-10-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.20) · SPY 63d: +9.38%2021-11-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 63d: −1.54%2021-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.88) · SPY 63d: −3.28%2022-02-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: −8.07%2022-03-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: −3.96%2022-04-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.34) · SPY 63d: −15.67%2006-03-012015-05-012022-04-01
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2 from 60-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.