PoorlyweatherSP-4847

Phoenix Precipitation

Total daily precipitation (Phoenix, mm).

Sectors:Regional Metros Weather & Climate

the verdict —

At the 252d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 29% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -6.32%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6384. Bearish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18

0.00

last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Phoenix Precipitation

0.0000

Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move

2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18  ·  252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged -6.3% over the next year, moving in the opposite direction 71% of the time.

↓53%

−0.03%

1 d

↓56%

−0.16%

1 wk

↓61%

−0.61%

1 mo

↓64%

−1.6%

3 mo

↓66%

−3.1%

6 mo

↓71%

−6.3%

1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=6,384

-0.03%

47% same direction

-0.16%

44% same direction

-0.61%

39% same direction

-1.6%

36% same direction

-3.1%

34% same direction

-6.3%

29% same direction

Gold

futures

n=6,205

-0.04%

47% same direction

-0.21%

45% same direction

-0.82%

44% same direction

-2.6%

38% same direction

-5.2%

33% same direction

-10.6%

30% same direction

Analyst · 6 moreWTI · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

Regime-tuned params · AutoResearch v13Analyst · preview

Regime matters

This indicator's strongest predictive edge sits in High VIX (stress): tuned σ = 2.5, window = 90d, horizon = 126d, hit-rate deviation from chance = 50.0pp.

Regime	σ	Window	Horizon	Hit dev
● Low VIX (calm)	2.50	90d	126d	37.0pp
● Normal VIX	2.50	180d	252d	41.4pp
● High VIX (stress)	2.50	90d	126d	50.0pp

Hit-rate deviation = |hit% − 50%| at the row's tuned horizon. Big deviation = strong directional edge in that regime. Regimes split by daily VIX terciles (low / normal / high) over a 1-year rolling window. Analyst + Trader subscribers will be able to filter the home grid and the fire-history bar chart by regime.

shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.