VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
← back to front page·indicator report
StandardeventsSP-3815

Presidential election year

1 every day in a year divisible by 4 (US presidential election year).

Sectors:Calendar Events
the verdict —
At the 252d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 39% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: -3.27%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6384. Bearish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
SPY

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-26
0.00
Binary calendar indicator — value is 1 on event days, 0 every other day. A time-series sparkline isn't meaningful here (it's mostly zeros). The hit-rate / magnitude stats below are computed against the event days themselves; see the COMING UP strip on the home page for upcoming instances.

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Presidential election year
0.0000
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
0.04000.02000.0000-0.0200-0.0400Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Feb 26May 26
2025-06-09 → 2026-05-26 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires (deviates 2+ standard deviations from its 30-day average, in either direction), SPY has historically averaged -3.3% over the next year, moving in the opposite direction 61% of the time.

48%
−0.02%
1 d
↓54%
−0.10%
1 wk
↓57%
−0.44%
1 mo
↓60%
−1.4%
3 mo
↓61%
−2.5%
6 mo
↓61%
−3.3%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,384
-0.02%
48% same direction
-0.10%
46% same direction
-0.44%
43% same direction
-1.4%
40% same direction
-2.5%
39% same direction
-3.3%
39% same direction
Gold
futures
n=6,205
-0.03%
48% same direction
-0.15%
46% same direction
-0.64%
45% same direction
-2.1%
38% same direction
-4.5%
34% same direction
-8.7%
33% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.