VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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PoorlyweatherSP-4841

St Louis Temperature

Mean daily temperature (St Louis, C).

Sectors:Regional MetrosWeather & Climate
the verdict —
At the 63d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 52% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.08%. Status: OOS validated. n = 6564. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-18
22.1
vs ~6 weeks ago
↑ 70%
vs 60 days ago
↑ 58%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 26%
last 90 observations · 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-18

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

St Louis Temperature
22.10▲ +2.60 (+13.33%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move
30.1418.396.65-5.10-16.84Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26
2025-09-09 → 2026-05-18 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

49%
+0.01%
1 d
49%
−0.01%
1 wk
51%
+0.06%
1 mo
↑52%
+0.08%
3 mo
52%
+0.30%
6 mo
↑52%
+0.22%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=6,564
+0.01%
49% same direction
-0.01%
49% same direction
+0.06%
51% same direction
+0.08%
52% same direction
+0.30%
52% same direction
+0.22%
52% same direction
WTI
crude oil
n=6,402
+0.07%
50% same direction
-0.04%
49% same direction
-0.81%
45% same direction
-3.9%
41% same direction
-4.0%
45% same direction
+0.34%
51% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreGold · BTC · Copper · DXY · MOVE · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
404 fires · 39% positive · avg −1.06%
−25.0%−12.5%0%+12.5%+25.0%2000-05-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.60) · SPY 63d: +3.98%2000-10-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: +7.25%2000-10-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +4.04%2000-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +6.21%2000-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: +4.77%2000-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.41) · SPY 63d: +3.19%2000-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: +2.58%2000-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +4.16%2000-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: +6.57%2000-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.42) · SPY 63d: +8.06%2000-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +6.59%2000-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: +7.69%2000-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: +3.42%2000-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: +14.74%2000-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +15.52%2000-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +12.69%2000-12-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +15.42%2000-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +14.53%2000-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +9.32%2000-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: +9.64%2001-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −2.57%2001-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −5.59%2001-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: +0.04%2001-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +4.50%2001-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −0.35%2001-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −0.77%2001-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2001-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +0.14%2001-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: +0.73%2001-12-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: +1.01%2002-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −16.49%2002-04-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: −20.00%2002-04-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: −19.67%2002-04-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: −21.93%2002-04-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: −24.96%2002-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −10.28%2002-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +3.77%2002-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +2.59%2002-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: +5.42%2002-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +9.78%2002-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +7.41%2002-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +10.81%2002-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +11.06%2003-04-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 63d: +11.29%2003-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −9.40%2003-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −7.59%2003-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −8.75%2003-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −9.22%2003-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −9.67%2003-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −8.86%2003-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: −8.52%2003-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −8.48%2003-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −3.03%2003-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −3.38%2004-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −2.09%2004-01-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +2.22%2004-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: −6.31%2004-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −6.27%2004-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −3.46%2004-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −3.16%2004-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −2.38%2004-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −2.65%2004-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: −2.08%2004-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: −1.59%2004-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −2.52%2004-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −1.67%2004-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2004-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −2.97%2004-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +0.19%2004-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: +1.38%2004-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +1.26%2004-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +2.15%2004-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: +2.93%2004-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +2.86%2005-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 63d: +5.19%2005-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −5.58%2005-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −6.38%2005-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −7.68%2005-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −6.43%2005-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −2.49%2005-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −3.65%2005-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.47) · SPY 63d: −4.31%2005-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.96) · SPY 63d: −3.09%2005-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: −3.31%2005-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 63d: −0.86%2005-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −2.59%2005-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −2.67%2005-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −1.17%2005-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −0.88%2005-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −1.31%2005-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −0.44%2005-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 63d: −1.99%2005-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −2.25%2005-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 63d: −3.05%2006-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 63d: −4.90%2006-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −4.68%2006-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −4.38%2006-10-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −5.20%2006-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −3.48%2006-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.11) · SPY 63d: −3.08%2006-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −2.67%2006-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −5.84%2006-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.89) · SPY 63d: −5.93%2006-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −6.35%2006-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: +0.47%2006-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.00) · SPY 63d: +0.39%2006-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: +2.06%2006-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.82) · SPY 63d: +1.51%2007-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +9.63%2007-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: +11.05%2007-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: +12.17%2007-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: +10.93%2007-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: +11.53%2007-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: +12.47%2007-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: +10.25%2007-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: +8.75%2007-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: +11.29%2007-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 63d: +11.93%2007-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 63d: +10.03%2007-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +6.88%2007-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +6.77%2007-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: +4.00%2007-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: +1.94%2007-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +4.00%2007-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: +9.38%2007-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +15.20%2007-12-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +10.17%2008-04-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 63d: −6.93%2008-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +2.88%2008-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.19) · SPY 63d: −4.10%2008-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: +9.82%2008-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +11.01%2008-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +11.45%2008-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.61) · SPY 63d: +9.75%2008-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +6.81%2008-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +8.53%2008-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.34) · SPY 63d: +11.09%2008-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +8.40%2008-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −2.69%2008-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.51) · SPY 63d: +3.33%2008-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: +20.15%2008-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: +17.92%2008-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: +14.08%2008-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: +6.44%2009-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −3.17%2009-04-24 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +13.15%2009-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −5.55%2009-10-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: −6.66%2009-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −5.14%2009-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −3.58%2009-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −5.67%2009-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −3.52%2009-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −3.11%2009-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −4.95%2009-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: −4.38%2009-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −4.77%2009-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −5.11%2010-01-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: −5.04%2010-01-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: −4.16%2010-01-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −4.51%2010-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −7.87%2010-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.04) · SPY 63d: −8.60%2010-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −7.54%2010-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −13.28%2010-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −12.15%2010-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −10.09%2010-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: −12.08%2010-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −10.30%2010-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −8.09%2010-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −6.95%2010-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −8.00%2010-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −7.78%2010-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −5.40%2010-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.34) · SPY 63d: −3.21%2010-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −1.21%2011-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −8.93%2011-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −8.88%2011-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −11.76%2011-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −9.86%2012-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −5.91%2012-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −7.00%2012-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −10.52%2013-04-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 63d: +4.11%2013-04-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.73) · SPY 63d: +5.58%2013-05-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +6.59%2013-05-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 63d: +1.58%2013-05-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 63d: −1.29%2013-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −4.21%2013-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −2.48%2013-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −1.63%2013-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 63d: −1.77%2013-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −2.90%2013-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −2.65%2013-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.65) · SPY 63d: −3.42%2013-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.54) · SPY 63d: −3.16%2013-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −2.77%2013-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −2.71%2013-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 63d: −2.87%2013-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: −3.10%2013-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: −2.13%2013-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −3.64%2013-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: −3.48%2013-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −3.24%2013-12-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −2.45%2013-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −3.32%2013-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −4.60%2014-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −1.09%2014-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −0.88%2014-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: −1.58%2014-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 63d: −1.71%2014-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.57) · SPY 63d: −2.85%2014-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.83) · SPY 63d: −2.90%2014-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.79) · SPY 63d: −2.88%2014-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 63d: −2.74%2014-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.74) · SPY 63d: −2.77%2014-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −2.92%2014-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −3.03%2014-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −2.40%2015-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: +7.27%2015-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +8.55%2015-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: +10.96%2015-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: +7.70%2015-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: +6.47%2015-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: +3.88%2015-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +2.44%2015-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +5.35%2016-10-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −6.37%2016-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −6.99%2016-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: −7.31%2016-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 63d: −8.46%2016-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: −7.40%2016-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −7.33%2016-11-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −6.75%2016-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −8.26%2016-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −7.88%2016-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −5.83%2016-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: −5.62%2016-12-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −4.59%2016-12-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −4.94%2016-12-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −4.39%2016-12-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: −3.86%2016-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.02) · SPY 63d: −3.88%2017-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −3.52%2017-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: −10.42%2017-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −12.26%2017-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: −9.33%2017-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −9.80%2017-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.73) · SPY 63d: −9.50%2017-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.17) · SPY 63d: −6.98%2017-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: −3.41%2017-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +0.40%2017-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −0.92%2017-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −2.78%2017-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.83) · SPY 63d: −3.06%2017-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −4.36%2017-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 63d: −4.94%2017-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: −6.98%2017-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −5.47%2017-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −4.22%2017-12-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 63d: +2.76%2017-12-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.18) · SPY 63d: +1.56%2017-12-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 63d: +3.88%2018-01-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: +1.94%2018-05-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.55) · SPY 63d: +6.71%2018-10-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: +5.65%2018-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: +4.89%2018-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: +6.22%2018-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +4.99%2018-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: +4.90%2018-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: +4.65%2018-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: +0.59%2018-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: +2.47%2018-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −0.85%2018-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 63d: +0.15%2018-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −0.31%2018-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +1.19%2018-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +3.70%2018-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.15) · SPY 63d: +2.28%2018-11-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.31) · SPY 63d: +1.00%2018-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 63d: −0.66%2018-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.66) · SPY 63d: −1.95%2018-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 63d: −2.83%2018-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −1.97%2018-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: −1.35%2018-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −5.83%2018-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −4.18%2018-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: −4.48%2018-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −1.75%2019-04-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +4.32%2019-05-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 63d: +1.05%2019-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.73) · SPY 63d: −10.90%2019-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 63d: −10.92%2019-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −7.70%2019-10-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −8.38%2019-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 63d: −8.07%2019-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.33) · SPY 63d: −5.78%2019-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.95) · SPY 63d: −6.85%2019-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.40) · SPY 63d: −7.49%2019-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 63d: −8.60%2019-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.89) · SPY 63d: −8.52%2019-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −9.43%2019-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.46) · SPY 63d: −9.08%2019-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 63d: −9.22%2019-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 63d: −8.78%2019-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.85) · SPY 63d: −8.52%2020-04-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 63d: +19.25%2020-04-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 63d: +14.72%2020-05-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 63d: +14.66%2020-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −12.25%2020-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 63d: −10.32%2020-10-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 63d: −11.65%2020-10-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −13.29%2020-10-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −14.02%2020-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −16.85%2020-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −15.64%2020-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −10.08%2020-11-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −9.58%2020-11-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: −5.35%2020-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.97) · SPY 63d: −2.92%2020-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 63d: −4.59%2020-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 63d: −7.26%2021-02-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −5.92%2021-10-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 63d: +4.95%2021-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: +1.54%2021-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 63d: +0.98%2021-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: +3.90%2021-11-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 63d: +3.90%2021-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.24) · SPY 63d: +4.54%2021-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 63d: +6.05%2021-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: +4.56%2021-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +7.56%2021-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.07) · SPY 63d: +8.39%2021-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 63d: +9.76%2021-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 63d: +8.52%2021-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.10) · SPY 63d: +4.87%2021-12-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.86) · SPY 63d: +8.73%2022-01-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 63d: +4.38%2022-01-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 63d: +4.10%2022-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: +3.97%2022-01-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: +1.94%2022-05-10 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 63d: +5.24%2022-05-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 63d: +6.94%2022-05-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.79) · SPY 63d: +8.86%2022-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −6.73%2022-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.53) · SPY 63d: −4.72%2022-10-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.32) · SPY 63d: −7.43%2022-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2022-11-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.38) · SPY 63d: −4.77%2022-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −2.46%2022-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 63d: −2.99%2022-11-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −1.23%2022-11-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.37) · SPY 63d: −0.63%2022-12-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 63d: −4.14%2022-12-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.61) · SPY 63d: −3.31%2023-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.22) · SPY 63d: −16.19%2023-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.52) · SPY 63d: −16.98%2023-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.15) · SPY 63d: −16.96%2023-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 63d: −14.34%2023-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 63d: −11.20%2023-11-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −11.34%2023-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 63d: −11.39%2023-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 63d: −11.68%2024-01-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −6.02%2024-10-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 63d: −1.45%2024-10-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.93) · SPY 63d: −2.05%2024-10-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.34) · SPY 63d: −2.62%2024-10-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.94) · SPY 63d: −3.55%2024-10-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: −3.74%2024-11-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 63d: −5.81%2024-11-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.75) · SPY 63d: −1.63%2024-11-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −0.86%2024-11-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 63d: −2.14%2024-11-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 63d: −4.21%2024-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.14) · SPY 63d: −0.15%2024-11-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.84) · SPY 63d: +1.76%2024-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.08) · SPY 63d: +2.81%2024-11-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: +3.67%2024-11-29 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.45) · SPY 63d: +3.23%2024-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 63d: +5.12%2024-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.34) · SPY 63d: +4.63%2024-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.36) · SPY 63d: +8.36%2024-12-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 63d: +8.05%2024-12-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 63d: +7.17%2024-12-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: +6.14%2025-01-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 63d: +6.80%2025-01-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.74) · SPY 63d: +11.01%2025-01-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: +12.57%2025-10-22 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −3.21%2025-10-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 63d: −3.12%2025-10-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.67) · SPY 63d: −2.69%2025-10-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 63d: −2.29%2025-10-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 63d: −1.09%2025-11-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 63d: −0.42%2025-11-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.06) · SPY 63d: −1.54%2025-11-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 63d: +0.25%2025-11-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 63d: −0.99%2025-11-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 63d: +0.45%2025-12-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 63d: −0.71%2025-12-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.26) · SPY 63d: +0.03%2025-12-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.91) · SPY 63d: +1.68%2025-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 63d: +0.89%2025-12-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 63d: +1.24%2025-12-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 63d: +1.07%2026-01-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 63d: −3.24%2000-05-082013-12-092026-01-26
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading quarter, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.