VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTHU · MAY 28 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
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StandardmacroSP-4588

Synchrony Financial (SYF) stock price

Synchrony store-card / private-label issuer (Lowe's, Amazon, Sam's Club partnerships). Pure-play retail-credit exposure.

Sectors:Banking & LendingFintech & Payments
the verdict —
At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 54% of fires. Mean SPY forward return when it lights: +0.27%. Status: OOS validated. n = 2936. Bullish on the underlying when fired.
What to watch when it fires
AMZN

— Current state —

Latest value · 2026-05-22
71.8
vs ~6 weeks ago
↓ 0.8%
vs 60 days ago
↓ 2.9%
vs 7 days ago
↑ 2.9%
last 90 observations · 2026-01-14 → 2026-05-22

— The series — full history —

Daily readings, every reading we have. Pick a window with the time-period buttons; flip to candles via the global toggle in the masthead (or press C). Toggle the SPY overlay to see how this series and the S&P 500 have moved together.

Synchrony Financial (SYF) stock price
71.83▲ +14.37 (+25.01%) over 1Y
Hover for date + value · Toggle SPY to compare relative move · Switch to Candle for OHLC view
89.7481.1772.6164.0455.47May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26
2025-05-22 → 2026-05-22 · 252 bars

— What it has historically predicted —

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading month. We surface this for transparency, not because we'd trade on it.

↑52%
+0.02%
1 d
↑53%
+0.05%
1 wk
↑54%
+0.27%
1 mo
↑54%
+0.43%
3 mo
↑54%
+0.34%
6 mo
↓52%
−0.52%
1 yr

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target
1 d
1 wk
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
n=2,936
+0.02%
52% same direction
+0.05%
53% same direction
+0.27%
54% same direction
+0.43%
54% same direction
+0.34%
54% same direction
-0.52%
48% same direction
MOVE
bond volatility
n=2,892
+0.26%
52% same direction
+1.5%
55% same direction
+3.0%
55% same direction
+6.5%
60% same direction
+8.6%
59% same direction
+13.3%
59% same direction
Analyst · 6 moreWTI · Gold · BTC · Copper · DXY · VNQ — see the full 8-target matrix with bootstrap confidence intervals.Join waitlist →

— Each fire in history — when the signal popped, what SPY did next —

Each bar is one historical fire — the indicator's value moved 2.5+ standard deviations from its rolling 180 trading-day mean (~9 months), or for monotonic “days since” indicators, crossed an 80th/90th/95th/99th percentile. Bar height = SPY's forward return at the selected horizon, signed by signal direction. Green above zero means the market moved with the signal; red below zero means it moved against.

horizon:
188 fires · 55% positive · avg −0.73%
⚠ This indicator hasn't fired since 2024-12-09 (535 calendar days ago). Currently quiet — chart shows historical fires only.
−25.2%−12.6%0%+12.6%+25.2%2015-07-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: −1.23%2015-07-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −1.62%2015-07-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: −3.50%2015-07-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: −5.88%2016-01-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 21d: +1.17%2016-01-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.61) · SPY 21d: +1.12%2016-01-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.90) · SPY 21d: −2.70%2016-01-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −2.14%2016-01-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: −3.42%2016-01-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.64) · SPY 21d: −4.33%2016-02-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.70) · SPY 21d: −5.06%2016-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.99) · SPY 21d: −4.77%2016-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.92) · SPY 21d: −4.69%2016-02-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 21d: −5.56%2016-02-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.64) · SPY 21d: −7.53%2016-02-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.21) · SPY 21d: −7.61%2016-02-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.13) · SPY 21d: −9.44%2016-02-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.27) · SPY 21d: −10.74%2016-02-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.77) · SPY 21d: −8.33%2016-06-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.09) · SPY 21d: −8.48%2016-06-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.72) · SPY 21d: −6.68%2016-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.65) · SPY 21d: +5.24%2016-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.35) · SPY 21d: +4.29%2016-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 21d: +3.91%2016-11-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.90) · SPY 21d: +2.99%2016-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.93) · SPY 21d: +3.62%2016-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +2.55%2016-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: +2.18%2016-11-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.38) · SPY 21d: +2.27%2016-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 21d: +2.14%2016-11-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +1.78%2016-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +1.56%2016-11-30 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: +1.43%2016-12-01 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.99) · SPY 21d: +2.58%2016-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.64) · SPY 21d: +3.14%2016-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +2.44%2016-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.01) · SPY 21d: +2.48%2016-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.14) · SPY 21d: +0.83%2016-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.24) · SPY 21d: +0.58%2016-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.08) · SPY 21d: +0.26%2016-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +0.12%2016-12-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: −0.31%2016-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +0.16%2016-12-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.91) · SPY 21d: −0.03%2016-12-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +0.39%2016-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.75) · SPY 21d: +0.54%2016-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: −0.11%2016-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +0.81%2016-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.53) · SPY 21d: +1.86%2016-12-23 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: +1.60%2017-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +1.22%2017-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.13) · SPY 21d: +2.83%2017-12-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 21d: +3.89%2017-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.96) · SPY 21d: +4.06%2017-12-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: +3.96%2017-12-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.87) · SPY 21d: +3.24%2017-12-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.84) · SPY 21d: +3.68%2017-12-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.68) · SPY 21d: +4.18%2017-12-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.97) · SPY 21d: +4.55%2017-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.78) · SPY 21d: +5.81%2017-12-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: +6.09%2017-12-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.82) · SPY 21d: +5.83%2017-12-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.81) · SPY 21d: +5.90%2017-12-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.72) · SPY 21d: +7.26%2017-12-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.62) · SPY 21d: +6.49%2017-12-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +5.18%2017-12-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: +5.64%2018-01-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.54) · SPY 21d: +4.77%2018-01-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +1.84%2018-01-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: −2.83%2018-01-05 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.66) · SPY 21d: −1.57%2018-07-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −1.47%2018-07-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: −2.97%2018-07-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 21d: −3.56%2018-07-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.87) · SPY 21d: −3.61%2018-08-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.71) · SPY 21d: −3.36%2018-11-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.96) · SPY 21d: +0.60%2018-11-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: +1.30%2018-11-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: +4.20%2018-11-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.69) · SPY 21d: +8.21%2018-11-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: +8.15%2018-11-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.80) · SPY 21d: +8.87%2018-11-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: +11.58%2018-11-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.59) · SPY 21d: +6.48%2018-12-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: +5.87%2018-12-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.50) · SPY 21d: +1.95%2018-12-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: −2.98%2018-12-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: −4.46%2018-12-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −4.62%2018-12-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.56) · SPY 21d: −6.57%2018-12-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.65) · SPY 21d: −9.49%2018-12-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: −13.42%2020-02-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.98) · SPY 21d: +14.82%2020-02-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.23) · SPY 21d: +11.68%2020-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.20) · SPY 21d: +18.02%2020-03-05 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: +17.94%2020-03-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 21d: +10.96%2020-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.79) · SPY 21d: +3.32%2020-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.90) · SPY 21d: +4.99%2020-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.53) · SPY 21d: −1.40%2020-03-12 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.48) · SPY 21d: −11.10%2020-03-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.07) · SPY 21d: −5.37%2020-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.27) · SPY 21d: −15.81%2020-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.78) · SPY 21d: −10.40%2020-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-6.40) · SPY 21d: −19.43%2020-03-19 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.55) · SPY 21d: −17.08%2020-03-20 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.42) · SPY 21d: −19.34%2020-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-5.14) · SPY 21d: −25.19%2020-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.33) · SPY 21d: −14.78%2020-03-25 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.68) · SPY 21d: −14.66%2020-03-26 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.03) · SPY 21d: −9.90%2020-03-27 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.34) · SPY 21d: −12.75%2020-03-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.28) · SPY 21d: −12.06%2020-03-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.30) · SPY 21d: −12.70%2020-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.49) · SPY 21d: −14.89%2020-04-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.39) · SPY 21d: −12.60%2020-04-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.46) · SPY 21d: −15.31%2020-04-06 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.95) · SPY 21d: −7.32%2020-04-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.76) · SPY 21d: −8.51%2020-04-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.57) · SPY 21d: −6.72%2020-04-13 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: −3.99%2020-04-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.54) · SPY 21d: +0.77%2020-04-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.63) · SPY 21d: −2.60%2020-04-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: −2.57%2021-01-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.67) · SPY 21d: +3.66%2021-01-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.58) · SPY 21d: +4.44%2021-01-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.71) · SPY 21d: +3.19%2021-01-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: +1.60%2022-01-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.82) · SPY 21d: +2.71%2022-01-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.05) · SPY 21d: +2.67%2022-02-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 21d: +3.81%2022-02-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.83) · SPY 21d: +5.51%2022-02-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.01) · SPY 21d: +6.08%2022-02-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.81) · SPY 21d: +7.23%2022-02-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.55) · SPY 21d: +4.44%2022-02-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.79) · SPY 21d: −6.76%2022-02-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.88) · SPY 21d: −5.70%2022-03-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.47) · SPY 21d: −6.68%2022-03-02 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.22) · SPY 21d: −3.14%2022-03-03 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.47) · SPY 21d: −3.95%2022-03-04 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.97) · SPY 21d: −5.70%2022-03-07 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.73) · SPY 21d: −7.53%2022-03-08 · ↓ down-fire (z=-4.34) · SPY 21d: −7.27%2022-03-09 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.72) · SPY 21d: −5.00%2022-03-10 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.81) · SPY 21d: −5.19%2022-03-11 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.77) · SPY 21d: −4.72%2022-03-14 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.48) · SPY 21d: −5.11%2022-03-15 · ↓ down-fire (z=-3.16) · SPY 21d: −4.02%2022-03-16 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: −0.50%2022-03-17 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.62) · SPY 21d: +0.70%2022-03-18 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.51) · SPY 21d: −0.12%2022-03-21 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.78) · SPY 21d: −0.07%2022-03-23 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.66) · SPY 21d: +4.00%2022-03-24 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.58) · SPY 21d: +4.88%2022-03-28 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.60) · SPY 21d: +8.48%2022-03-30 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.52) · SPY 21d: +10.18%2022-03-31 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.68) · SPY 21d: +8.23%2022-04-01 · ↓ down-fire (z=-2.53) · SPY 21d: +8.07%2023-12-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: +0.06%2023-12-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +1.81%2024-10-16 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.98) · SPY 21d: +1.90%2024-10-17 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.94) · SPY 21d: +0.58%2024-10-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: +0.61%2024-10-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.59) · SPY 21d: +1.14%2024-10-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.50) · SPY 21d: +1.23%2024-10-28 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.61) · SPY 21d: +3.41%2024-11-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=4.74) · SPY 21d: +2.84%2024-11-07 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.85) · SPY 21d: +1.52%2024-11-08 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.52) · SPY 21d: +0.77%2024-11-11 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.76) · SPY 21d: +1.45%2024-11-12 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.52) · SPY 21d: +1.24%2024-11-13 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.39) · SPY 21d: +1.18%2024-11-14 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.23) · SPY 21d: +2.27%2024-11-15 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.15) · SPY 21d: +3.16%2024-11-18 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.89) · SPY 21d: −0.32%2024-11-19 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.74) · SPY 21d: −0.71%2024-11-20 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.80) · SPY 21d: +0.11%2024-11-21 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.85) · SPY 21d: +0.17%2024-11-22 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.92) · SPY 21d: +0.97%2024-11-25 · ↑ up-fire (z=3.00) · SPY 21d: +0.64%2024-11-26 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.95) · SPY 21d: −0.94%2024-11-27 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.86) · SPY 21d: −1.77%2024-11-29 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.83) · SPY 21d: −2.73%2024-12-02 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.69) · SPY 21d: −3.15%2024-12-03 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.63) · SPY 21d: −1.98%2024-12-04 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.52) · SPY 21d: −2.02%2024-12-06 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.57) · SPY 21d: −3.01%2024-12-09 · ↑ up-fire (z=2.51) · SPY 21d: −4.00%2015-07-202020-03-032024-12-09
Each bar = one fire day (|z|≥2.5 from 180-day rolling baseline). Bar height = SPY return over the the next trading month, signed by signal direction. Dashed line = average across fires.
shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.